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Selected analysis
Budget 2026: where the money for new commitments came from
The deficit for this fiscal year is close to the spring forecast. Under that figure, the forecast improved by $158 billion over five years and new commitments used $152 billion of it. This page traces the figures through the budget’s own tables.
Read from Budget 2026 as published on November 10, 2026. Figures are the budget’s own projections, not results.
Ottawa’s red-tape reset reaches far beyond paperwork
How Ottawa’s proposed changes could affect business restructuring, electricity storage, trade and development near airports.
Proposed changes, read from the first-reading bill. This is a dated analysis, not a current bill-status check.
British Columbia’s next growth test
Real output has more than doubled since the late nineties. Growth per resident is slower, the ports serve a national production base, and the pre-election fiscal plan leaves a large deficit.
The next post-election budget is not yet available to test the fiscal posture. Project announcements do not establish future production, royalties or net public benefits.
Is Canada rebuilding the capital behind each worker? · Recent record: 2026-10-13 to 2026-11-11. The window follows recorded checks, material corrections and selected analyses. Qualification and wording notices do not move it.
Recent evidence readings
No evidence readings were recorded for this selection in this window. Showing the 2 most recent earlier readings instead; their dates remain below.
Change type and importance are separate editorial decisions. An issuer revision can be material or minor; a checked-unchanged reading is still a finding. Minor changes include housekeeping only when the recorded effect warrants that description.
Checked, unchanged · Material reading
The capital question was re-checked against the release it was waiting for, and not one of its figures moved. Capital stock per worker is still down 3.7 per cent since 2019 and 5.7 per cent from the record's 2014 peak; real business investment per worker is still down 7.2 per cent; the investment share of GDP still barely moved, from 20.6 per cent in 2014 to 18.6 per cent in 2025. The new quarter is real and is recorded: business gross fixed capital formation ran at $427,991 million in chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and $618,156 million at current prices, in April-June 2026.
More on this question: Is Canada rebuilding the capital behind each worker? →
Why it stands: Every figure this question publishes is a calendar-year average or a year-end level, and the newest calendar year it publishes is 2025. The release added one quarter, April-June 2026, which sits inside a calendar year that is not finished and therefore inside no published window, and restated one quarter, January-March 2026, which sits outside every published window too. Countability refetched all four source tables behind this question and compared them observation by observation with the archived bytes its figures are pinned to. The two annual records -- the capital-stock record and the multifactor-productivity record -- returned no change of any kind. The two quarterly records changed only in the two quarters just named.
An unchanged reading after a real release is a result, not a gap: the release that could most plausibly have moved this question did not move it. The first calendar year that can extend these windows is 2026, and that needs all four of its quarters.
Trigger recorded for this reading: The remaining two quarters of 2026, which together with these would complete a calendar year; the next annual capital-stock release; or the next multifactor-productivity release.
Limit: Unchanged means unchanged after a complete re-fetch and an observation-by-observation comparison against the archived bytes, not unchecked. The two quarterly figures quoted here are stated as the freshest published quarter and are deliberately not folded into any per-worker or share figure, because a single quarter is not a calendar year. The capital-stock record still ends at 2024 and the multifactor-productivity record at 2023; that lag is this question's own standing evidence gap and this release did nothing to close it. Adapted from Statistics Canada, tables 36-10-0104-01, 36-10-0108-01, 36-10-0097-01 and 36-10-0208-01, 2026; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Brief it reads from
Analysis update · Material change
First reading of a new question. Non-residential capital stock per worker has fallen since the record's 2014 peak: down 3.7 per cent since 2019, and 5.7 per cent since that peak. This stock measure covers the whole economy -- government and non-profit capital as well as business capital. Real business investment per worker fell 7.2 per cent from 2019 to 2025. But the investment share of GDP barely moved over the same span. The per-worker declines are substantially a story about a growing workforce, not a spending collapse.
More on this question: Is Canada rebuilding the capital behind each worker? →
Why it stands: The new Capital Behind Each Worker Brief computes stock-per-worker and investment-per-worker levels from pinned values inside two member Resolutions -- Statistics Canada's capital-stock and investment records against its own employment record -- with every figure re-derivable from archived source bytes.
An investment-recovery claim should be judged on the per-worker record, not the GDP-share record alone; within the investment total, the fall is concentrated in machinery and equipment specifically, while intellectual property products has gained share.
Trigger recorded for this reading: The next quarterly National Accounts release, or the next annual capital-stock or multifactor-productivity release.
Limit: The capital-stock figure lags the investment-flow figure by roughly two years; per-worker ratios divide a National Accounts dollar aggregate by a Labour Force Survey employment count without an hours adjustment; no figure attributes the productivity slowdown to the capital record or any other specific cause.
Reads onto the Big Question it bears on · the Brief it reads from
Monthly evidence archives
Site-wide corrections and wording amendments
Record-dated corrections: 2026-10-13 to 2026-11-11. Material qualification notices: 2026-10-13 to 2026-11-11. Minor wording notices: 2026-10-13 to 2026-11-11.
These notices change published explanations, claims or wording. They do not report new observations. Each link preserves what was wrong, the replacement and its effect.
- Dollarama geography and quarter length Qualification dated 2026-11-04. The Canadian store-count observation is retained. Consolidated sales are not a measure of Canadian discount spending or evidence of household motivation.
- Labour headcount comparison and annual window Identified 2026-10-27. The summary and shared claim explanation change. The September employment and population observations, annual ratio of 0.52 and earlier dated readings are unchanged.
- EI successor rules and historical expiry notice Identified 2026-10-27. The rule history is brought forward; the original regulation and original notice are preserved. No employment observation changes.
- Monthly trade reference periods Identified 2026-10-27. The date comparison changes. Trade values, statistical bases, legal dates and the daily counts are unchanged.
- Alberta statistical balance and legal compliance Identified 2026-10-27. The legal-compliance inference and its associated pace verdict are withdrawn. This correction does not adjudicate the separately registered Ontario and Quebec statistical trend proxies, whose basis classifications remain under the combined fiscal review. The statistical balance of 1.29% of GDP in 2024 is unchanged. This makes no finding about Alberta's actual compliance.
- Ontario and Quebec statistical balances beside fiscal-year promises Identified 2026-10-27. The pace inference is withdrawn for Ontario and Quebec. Statistical values are unchanged. This makes no finding about actual provincial compliance.
- US Monitor overview reference periods Identified 2026-10-27. This completes the overview counterpart of the October 27 panel-date correction. Statistical values and legal dates are unchanged; no tariff-effect inference is made.
Material corrections and withdrawals in the evidence log
- Dated 2026-11-10: Two previously admitted selected findings are withdrawn from current use after recomputation: the Quebec balance streak and the earlier employment level-shift window. Their historical receipts remain available. Limit: Withdrawal does not erase the prior source edition or establish a causal explanation. A new selected window requires its own examination before admission.
- Minor wording amendment — IRCC method limits Correction dated 2026-10-28. Wording only. No observation, calculation policy, precision or analytical conclusion changes.
This calendar retains the log’s original check date. Dates and then-future descriptions below are not a new check of an issuer’s schedule.
Official releases that could change the answer — next 14 days
| Date | Issuer | Release | What it could change | Products |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Statistics Canada | Building permits, September 2026 Confirmed date | The next unadjusted dwelling-unit count and prior revisions. Date stated in the issuer’s October 14 August permits release. | Canadian Capacity Monitor · Housing shortage (Big Question) |
| 2026-11-16 | Statistics Canada | Consumer Price Index, October 2026 Confirmed date | The matched-month price, rent, core and wage comparison. Date stated in the September issuer release captured October 19. | Housing shortage (Big Question) · The price of everything: one headline rate, and the components underneath it |
Just beyond 14 days
| Date | Issuer | Release | What it could change | Products |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-27 | Statistics Canada | National Accounts (GDP and gross fixed capital formation), Q3 2026 Provisional — typical cadence | Whether the turn in real GDP per person holds for a second quarter, whether output per worker keeps adding, and whether the per-person level finally passes its 2022 Q3 record; on the capital side, a third quarter of 2026 investment, still one quarter short of a calendar year. The issuer may also restate the two quarters this release just settled. Date provisional: it follows the issuer's observed quarterly cadence of publishing about two months after the quarter ends, and no source captured for these readings pins it. | Investment into productivity (Big Question) · Living standards (Big Question) · The capital behind each worker: the investment record, and the productivity record beside it · The anatomy of Canadian living standards |
| 2026-12-08 | Statistics Canada | Canadian international merchandise trade, October 2026 Confirmed date | The next matched trade month and historical revisions. Date stated in the captured November 4 issuer article. | US Exposure Monitor · Sell beyond the us (Big Question) · Canada's exports and the United States: the record break, and where the difference went |
| 2026-12-15 | Environment and Climate Change Canada | Greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions projections report and target-accounting-basis update (adds the 2024 accounting-basis observation) Provisional — typical cadence | The delivered-share and pace-ratio readings on the target-accounting basis, the With Measures/With Additional Measures 2030 projections and their gap to the target band, and the 2026 interim-objective scenario check -- the principal settlement event for this Brief's first re-reading. | Climate account (Big Question) · The distance still to travel |
| 2026-12-31 | Environment and Climate Change Canada / UNFCCC | Canada's second Biennial Transparency Report (statutory Paris Agreement deadline) Confirmed date | Corroborates or updates the LULUCF accounting-contribution methodology and the target-accounting statements this Brief cites; carried unresolved if it lands before this Brief can ingest it. | Climate account (Big Question) · The distance still to travel |
| 2027-04-15 | Environment and Climate Change Canada | National Inventory Report, next edition (adds the 2025 gross-inventory observed year) Provisional — typical cadence | The gross-inventory basis's delivered-share and pace-ratio readings, the seven-sector ledger, and the moving-baseline chapter's own comparison; a full re-ingest of the new vintage with the prior vintage preserved, revision separated from new-year movement. | Climate account (Big Question) · The distance still to travel |
| 2027-12-15 | Environment and Climate Change Canada | Statutory progress report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, next edition Provisional — typical cadence | The official-assessment quotations this Brief cites and the secondary sector indicators; never a verdict source by itself. | Climate account (Big Question) · The distance still to travel |
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