The answer

Canadian Capacity Monitor

October wording amendment: Population growth is slow and positive after revisions; the NPR-share target is behind its pace convention. August national starts are nearly flat; the detailed metropolitan completion panel now covers August, while national net additions remain unresolved and the housing models use different definitions. September employment and the employment rate fell further; the former structural cluster is withdrawn; a different February candidate is deferred; the matched August wage–price comparison has weakened. Federal fiscal room remains under sustained pressure. These sections do not combine into a single capacity score.

This page brings population, housing, jobs and federal finances together. Measured facts and inferred readings stay separate. It shows where institutions disagree and where data is missing or out of date. It does not combine them into one score.

Composite assessmentCorrectedLatest component check 2026-10-26Assessment evidence through 2026-10-09Receipt for this Monitor — sources, method, limitations

Demand pressurePressure easingDecliningEvidence ↓Physical capacityAugust completions and starts; national gap unresolvedMixedEvidence ↓Workforce capacityEmployment weakening; structural window under reviewMixed · observedEvidence ↓Fiscal roomUnder sustained pressureDeclining · observedEvidence ↓

4 sections, one question each. Select a card for its evidence.

What this release changed

A dated check has been recorded since the first reading — see the watch, below, for what changed, what held, and what remains unresolved.

Is Canada's institutional, physical, fiscal, and labour capacity keeping pace with the demands being placed upon it?

Explore the visual record

CapacityMeasuredContestedBlocked

What Measured, Contested and Blocked mean →

Evidence cutoff 2026-10-09 · 0 directly observed · 4 correlated or inferred · 5 unresolved — hover or use arrow keys to inspect a domain

State matrix

Demand pressureState Pressure easing

Domain: Demand pressure
State: Pressure easing
Direction: Declining
Confidence basis: Population and housing observations show slower positive growth; the NPR-share target is behind its stated straight-line pace convention, PR admissions remain within their tolerance band, and the temporary-arrivals target is proxy-only.
Distance to target: 3 registered targets
Next release: Next quarterly demographic estimates and migration components; no exact date verified in this reading.
Trigger: A reversal in the population growth rate's decline, or any of the three registered targets changing pace status

Limitation: One registered target has no continuous indicator and is tracked as proxy-only

Physical capacityState August completions and starts; national gap unresolved

Domain: Physical capacity
State: August completions and starts; national gap unresolved
Direction: Mixed
Confidence basis: Observed national August starts and August metropolitan construction counts; no national net-additions measure
Distance to target: 2 registered benchmarks
Next release: September starts: October 16 at 08:15 ET, per CMHC. The detailed metropolitan completion-table date is not confirmed.
Trigger: New completion observations, a change in intended-market composition, resolved survey coverage, or a comparable national net-additions measure

Limitation: Metropolitan gross completions are now observed; they do not measure national net additions, cancellations or occupancy. Permits and construction counts are separately observed stages, not linked cohorts.

Workforce capacityState Employment weakening; structural window under review

Domain: Workforce capacity
State: Employment weakening; structural window under review
Direction: Mixed
Confidence basis: Directly observed labour estimates; the changed structural cluster remains outside current admission.
Distance to target: No registered target or benchmark
Next release: October Labour Force Survey release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, according to the captured September issuer release.
Trigger: A later qualified structural episode or revision under the existing rule, or the youth-prime unemployment gap moving outside its own pre-pandemic historical band. The withdrawn January window cannot supply authority for a different episode.

Limitation: Employment fell in the latest month even as the annual absorption ratio rose. The annual comparison moves past a low employment base and a narrowing population gain; it does not establish stronger current hiring. The previously admitted cluster window no longer reproduces under the same rule. A different window is deferred; no causal inference or replacement structural reading is admitted. Age (fifteen to twenty-four) remains an imperfect proxy for starting working life. The Starting Work Question now adds first-quarter NEET estimates and lagged graduate-cohort earnings, but neither identifies current first-job hiring or seniority. August wages and CPI now share a reference month: the shortfall in wage growth relative to price growth has widened. This is not an hours-adjusted or household-level purchasing-power measure. September wages are observed, but September CPI has not yet been incorporated; the matched wage–price comparison remains August.

Fiscal roomState Under sustained pressure

Domain: Fiscal room
State: Under sustained pressure
Direction: Declining
Confidence basis: Directly observed: the federal government's own successive fiscal-balance projections, plus the run tied for third-longest among deficit runs in the available quarterly record
Distance to target: No registered target or benchmark
Next release: The next applicable government-finance or GDP release, or audited Public Accounts. No exact next date is established in this reading.
Trigger: The deficit-to-GDP ratio narrowing toward the government's own stated anchor, or the current quarterly deficit streak breaking

Limitation: Figures are on a National Accounts basis, not the Public Accounts basis used in the federal budget itself

Domain	State	Direction	Confidence basis	Distance to target	Next release	Trigger	Limitation
Demand pressure	Pressure easing	Declining	Population and housing observations show slower positive growth; the NPR-share target is behind its stated straight-line pace convention, PR admissions remain within their tolerance band, and the temporary-arrivals target is proxy-only.	3 registered targets	Next quarterly demographic estimates and migration components; no exact date verified in this reading.	A reversal in the population growth rate's decline, or any of the three registered targets changing pace status	One registered target has no continuous indicator and is tracked as proxy-only
Physical capacity	August completions and starts; national gap unresolved	Mixed	Observed national August starts and August metropolitan construction counts; no national net-additions measure	2 registered benchmarks	September starts: October 16 at 08:15 ET, per CMHC. The detailed metropolitan completion-table date is not confirmed.	New completion observations, a change in intended-market composition, resolved survey coverage, or a comparable national net-additions measure	Metropolitan gross completions are now observed; they do not measure national net additions, cancellations or occupancy. Permits and construction counts are separately observed stages, not linked cohorts.
Workforce capacity	Employment weakening; structural window under review	Mixed	Directly observed labour estimates; the changed structural cluster remains outside current admission.	No registered target or benchmark	October Labour Force Survey release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, according to the captured September issuer release.	A later qualified structural episode or revision under the existing rule, or the youth-prime unemployment gap moving outside its own pre-pandemic historical band. The withdrawn January window cannot supply authority for a different episode.	Employment fell in the latest month even as the annual absorption ratio rose. The annual comparison moves past a low employment base and a narrowing population gain; it does not establish stronger current hiring. The previously admitted cluster window no longer reproduces under the same rule. A different window is deferred; no causal inference or replacement structural reading is admitted. Age (fifteen to twenty-four) remains an imperfect proxy for starting working life. The Starting Work Question now adds first-quarter NEET estimates and lagged graduate-cohort earnings, but neither identifies current first-job hiring or seniority. August wages and CPI now share a reference month: the shortfall in wage growth relative to price growth has widened. This is not an hours-adjusted or household-level purchasing-power measure. September wages are observed, but September CPI has not yet been incorporated; the matched wage–price comparison remains August.
Fiscal room	Under sustained pressure	Declining	Directly observed: the federal government's own successive fiscal-balance projections, plus the run tied for third-longest among deficit runs in the available quarterly record	No registered target or benchmark	The next applicable government-finance or GDP release, or audited Public Accounts. No exact next date is established in this reading.	The deficit-to-GDP ratio narrowing toward the government's own stated anchor, or the current quarterly deficit streak breaking	Figures are on a National Accounts basis, not the Public Accounts basis used in the federal budget itself

Cross-domain tensions

DefinitionalCMHC’s current model specifies annual starts. PBO’s current model and CMHC’s superseded model specify net completions, whose definitions are not confirmed to be identical. The current CMHC model also uses a different horizon. Starts comparisons against net-completions models are context only, not measures of progress against those requirements. Metropolitan gross-completion counts do not establish compliance with national models.Within Physical capacity
TemporalPopulation growth has slowed while the latest monthly employment estimate has weakened. The Monitor follows both changes without treating their timing as evidence that one caused the other.Demand pressure ↔ Workforce capacity
Beyond this recordFederal fiscal room has narrowed while departmental funding plans elsewhere on the record continue to grow — a tension this Monitor states without adjudicating.Fiscal room ↔ the record beyond this Monitor

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-09

Population, housing, labour and public finances are often discussed separately. This Monitor reads them together to show whether the systems Canada relies on are keeping up with demand. It keeps disagreements and missing data visible instead of hiding them inside one score.

Oldest member reading: as of 2026-07-01 · 14 cited sources · 0 directly observed · 4 correlated or inferred · 5 unresolved

The evidence cutoff states the scope of the review. Reference dates identify the periods measured by individual figures. The assessed date records when Countability last reconsidered the reading; the oldest member reading identifies the earliest period among its cited inputs. How to read the clock →

The watch

Each dated check stays in the history below, whether new evidence changed the answer or confirmed it.

Since the last reading

Definition changeEvidence 2026-10-26

The 2025 adult snapshot includes 83.4% with a primary health care provider and 15.1% reporting fair or poor mental health, Canada excluding territories, with published 95% confidence intervals.

The qualified successor advances the dated record; prior source editions and readings remain retained.

The full check

What happened: The older provider series is marked terminated and the issuer directs the primary-provider indicator to table 13-10-0986-01. The 2025 chronic-condition questionnaire changed to mark all that apply.

Limitation: This is a separately dated snapshot, not a cross-table or year-over-year change estimate. Keep ages, geography, quality flags, confidence intervals and questionnaire change explicit; retain the 2024 reading.

Next trigger: The next issuer observation, revision or methodological clarification.

Health indicator statistics, annual estimates — Adapted from Statistics Canada, Health indicator statistics, annual estimates, 2024. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

Shared health priorities, annual estimates — Adapted from Statistics Canada, Shared health priorities, annual estimates, n.d.. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

2026-10-26 · Definition change
The 2025 adult snapshot includes 83.4% with a primary health care provider and 15.1% reporting fair or poor mental health, Canada excluding territories, with published 95% confidence intervals.
2026-10-26 · New period
August 2026 records 344 business insolvencies: 261 bankruptcies and 83 proposals. The twelve months through August total 4,758, -6.56% against the preceding twelve months.
2026-10-26 · New period
During 2026 Q3, 63,641 dwellings started on the unadjusted all-areas measure, including 38,413 apartment and other units.
2026-10-26 · Revision
Earlier IRCC history changes in all five files; January 2015 IMP moves from 14,070 to 12,660. The old observations remain retained.
2026-10-26 · New period
August 2026 has approximate derived totals of 40,125 permanent-resident admissions, 59,615 study permits becoming effective, 48,755 IMP permits becoming effective, 9,150 TFWP permits becoming effective and 4,560 asylum claims submitted.
2026-10-15 · New period
August permits authorized 24,705 new dwelling units, 13.5% more than August 2025 on the unadjusted count. July was revised from 24,022 to 23,470, a reduction of 552 units.
2026-10-13 · Correction
A dated amendment clarifies that the already withdrawn January labour claim stays withdrawn and the different February candidate stays deferred. The U.S. trade Pulse’s trigger grammar is corrected. Monitor links now display the name of their actual destination; Deep Dives label the assembled record’s date without claiming a fresh review of every source.
2026-10-09 · New period
September employment fell by 68,300: 35,400 fewer full-time workers and 32,900 fewer part-time workers. The employment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 60.6%, while unemployment rose 0.1 points to 6.5%. Youth unemployment was 13.0%.
2026-10-04 · New period
The federal deficit was $5.138 billion in April–July 2026, narrower by $2.650 billion than in the matched monthly series a year earlier. The current provincial outlooks and the CPP actuarial supplement are also incorporated on their separate dates and definitions.
2026-10-04 · Correction
The refreshed July permanent-resident admissions record no longer reproduces the previously admitted selected-period comparison. That comparison is withdrawn; its earlier receipt remains available as a historical reading.
2026-09-29 · Unresolved
CMHC’s detailed geography and intended-market publication pages displayed a September 27, 2026 publication date when checked on September 29, 2026. The matching workbooks have not yet been obtained and reconciled, so this panel retains the last qualified July estimates. The newer package’s reference period and numerical changes remain unverified.
2026-09-28 · New period
June has 938,951 active employer businesses, 1,247 more than revised May and 622 more than a year earlier, a 0.07% annual increase. July corporate credit is $2.407 trillion: 4.85% higher than a year earlier but about 0.1% below revised June.
2026-09-27 · New period
CMHC’s August metropolitan tables report 15,729 starts, 16,899 gross completions and 360,554 units under construction at month end. July recorded 16,374 starts, 18,797 completions and 362,059 under construction.
2026-09-24 · Unchanged
The job vacancy rate was 2.8% in July, unchanged from June and a year earlier. Employers reported about 501,000 vacancies; Statistics Canada describes both the monthly and annual comparisons as little changed.
2026-09-23 · Revision
Population revisions lower the Q2 real-GDP-per-person gain to 0.6%, from the previously published 1.6%. Output per worker is now the largest positive term; the revised population grew rather than fell.
2026-09-23 · New period
Canada's July 1 population estimate is 41,798,407, up 80,343 from revised April 1 and 189,425 from revised July 1, 2025. Growth is 0.5% over the year. Non-permanent residents number 2,779,774, or 6.65% of the population; their stock fell by 18,875 over the quarter. The same release puts the July 1 median age at 40.9 and the share aged 65 and over at 20.0%.
2026-09-21 · New period
July building permits authorized 24,022 new dwelling units, 19.8% fewer than a year earlier on the unadjusted count. The trailing twelve-month total was 297,088, down 3.6% from the preceding twelve months. Residential construction investment was $14.643 billion in constant 2023 dollars, seasonally adjusted, 4.9% above July 2025. These series measure different stages and cannot establish how many homes were completed or occupied.
2026-09-17 · New period
August housing starts were nearly flat at 229,046 units at an annualized rate, against a revised 229,360 in July. The six-month average fell from 247,446 to 244,149. These Canada-wide rates describe construction beginning, not homes completed.
2026-09-14 · New period
August CPI rose 3.0 per cent over the year, matching July's rounded rate, while the unadjusted index fell 0.1 per cent during the month. Rent inflation rose from 2.5 to 2.8 per cent and remained below the headline for a second month; its gap narrowed from −0.5 to −0.2 percentage points. Average hourly wage growth slowed from 2.8 to 2.0 per cent, widening the rounded wage–price gap from −0.2 to −1.0 percentage point. CPI-trim is 1.9 per cent, CPI-median 2.0 and CPI-common 2.6.
2026-09-04 · New period
Employment fell by 41,700 in August 2026. The unemployment rate held at 6.4 per cent, the employment rate slipped from 60.9 to 60.8 per cent, and youth unemployment rose from 12.6 to 12.9 per cent. Over the twelve months to August, employment nevertheless rose by 216,500 against 187,000 additional people aged 15 and over in the Labour Force Survey population estimate: 1.16 additional employed people per additional person, up from 1.00 over the year to July. The higher annual ratio does not mean August employment improved. August 2025 was a local employment low: its 61,700 decline from July 2025 is larger than this August's decline, raising the trailing annual employment gain by 20,000 despite the weaker current month; the annual population gain also narrowed from 197,300 to 187,000. These are different windows, and the ratio does not explain participation, hours, or the full-time/part-time mix. Re-running the existing descriptive detectors with August evidence places the employment level shift around September 2024, one month later than before, and the nine-indicator labour cluster in January-July 2024 instead of December 2023-June 2024. These moving-window findings locate changes in measured levels; they do not establish a cause. Earlier dated readings retain the windows and evidence they originally used.
2026-08-28 · New period
Statistics Canada's August 28 release revises the federal deficit for fiscal 2025-26 on the National Accounts basis from $44.823 billion to $47.636 billion, an increase of $2.813 billion. The revised annual estimate is 1.5 per cent of the GDP measure for the same four quarters. Separately, April-June 2026, the first quarter of fiscal 2026-27, records net borrowing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $57.964 billion, narrower than the revised $61.700 billion in January-March 2026, the last quarter of fiscal 2025-26. That new quarter is outside the year being revised. None of these is an audited Public Accounts settlement.
2026-08-25 · New reading
Current metropolitan housing completions are now part of the record. The national shortage remains unresolved: these gross construction counts do not measure national net additions.
2026-08-10 · New reading
Nine labour indicators shifted level together, inside one six-month window from December 2023 to June 2024. That published finding still stands, and the count is still nine -- but which nine has changed. With the new July data, total employment's own level shift now dates from August 2024, outside that window, so it drops out of the group. That indicator's shift is not published as its own separate reading, so where it was visible through the group, it is now not reported at all. Because total employment left the group, the measure of employment added per working-age person added now counts in its own right. It had been set aside before, because the series it is an arithmetic transform of was then in the group.
2026-08-10 · New period
One more month of labour data changes the absorption answer. Over the twelve months to July 2026, employment rose by 196,500 while the Labour Force Survey's working-age population estimate rose by 197,300. That is 1.00 jobs added for each additional working-age person, as published -- 0.996 before rounding. On the June window this record read 0.45. Employment growth has gone from covering under half of working-age population growth to coming within half a per cent of matching it.
2026-08-07 · Unchanged
The July release added a month and restated nothing this record can see. This record compared its copy of the labour table from before the release with its copy from after. All 3,491 monthly values the two copies share are identical. Each of the ten series gained exactly one new month, and of the earlier months held on both sides, not one moved.
2026-08-07 · New period
Employment growth is not what pushed the absorption ratio close to one. Over the twelve months to July 2026 the ratio reached 0.996. It got there because the number it divides by got much smaller: the year's gain in the Labour Force Survey's working-age population estimate fell from 715,000 to 197,300 — 72.4 per cent smaller. Employment grew 196,500 over that year. Over the twelve months to July 2025 it grew 293,200. So the ratio moved from 0.41 to almost 1.00 while the annual employment gain itself got smaller.
2026-08-07 · New period
Youth unemployment was 12.6 per cent in July 2026 -- the lowest reading since February 2024, when it was 12.1 per cent. The share of people aged 15 to 24 in work was 55.4 per cent. No month since May 2024 has been that high; May 2024 was 55.4 per cent exactly, so July 2026 matches it rather than beating it. A year earlier, those two figures were 14.5 and 53.7 per cent.
2026-08-07 · New period
The unemployment rate was 6.4 per cent in July 2026 -- its lowest reading since July 2024. It has now fallen for three months running: from 6.9 per cent in April, to 6.6, to 6.5, to 6.4. For people aged 25 to 54 it was 5.5 per cent. The share of everyone aged 15 and over in work was 60.9 per cent.
2026-07-19 · Unchanged
The Canadian Capacity Monitor was checked again against a complete housing-starts update. Housing delivery still lags both independent benchmarks, and the gap against each widened slightly in the newest quarter. Every other row was rechecked against the same update, and no other row's answer moved: population pressure, the labour market, and federal fiscal room.
2026-06-12 · Unchanged
The infrastructure reading is unchanged after a fresh source check. HICC’s project file is identical in every byte to the July and September captures, with reported project ends still no later than March 2025. The 2025 capital and asset-life estimates are also unchanged.
2026-07-11 · First reading

Next evidence

The named releases that could change a row of this Monitor, and what each could change.

Demand pressureNext release Next quarterly demographic estimates and migration components; no exact date verified in this reading.

Row: Demand pressure
Next release: Next quarterly demographic estimates and migration components; no exact date verified in this reading.
Could change: A reversal in the population growth rate's decline, or any of the three registered targets changing pace status

Physical capacityNext release September starts: October 16 at 08:15 ET, per CMHC. The detailed metropolitan completion-table date is not confirmed.

Row: Physical capacity
Next release: September starts: October 16 at 08:15 ET, per CMHC. The detailed metropolitan completion-table date is not confirmed.
Could change: New completion observations, a change in intended-market composition, resolved survey coverage, or a comparable national net-additions measure

Workforce capacityNext release October Labour Force Survey release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, according to the captured September issuer release.

Row: Workforce capacity
Next release: October Labour Force Survey release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, according to the captured September issuer release.
Could change: A later qualified structural episode or revision under the existing rule, or the youth-prime unemployment gap moving outside its own pre-pandemic historical band. The withdrawn January window cannot supply authority for a different episode.

Fiscal roomNext release The next applicable government-finance or GDP release, or audited Public Accounts. No exact next date is established in this reading.

Row: Fiscal room
Next release: The next applicable government-finance or GDP release, or audited Public Accounts. No exact next date is established in this reading.
Could change: The deficit-to-GDP ratio narrowing toward the government's own stated anchor, or the current quarterly deficit streak breaking

2026-10-29Next release Payroll employment and job vacancies, August 2026 (Statistics Canada)

Row: 2026-10-29
Next release: Payroll employment and job vacancies, August 2026 (Statistics Canada)
Could change: The next period and prior revisions. Date stated in the issuer’s September 24 July payroll and vacancies release.

2026-11-12Next release Building permits, September 2026 (Statistics Canada)

Row: 2026-11-12
Next release: Building permits, September 2026 (Statistics Canada)
Could change: The next unadjusted dwelling-unit count and prior revisions. Date stated in the issuer’s October 14 August permits release.

Row	Next release	What it could change
Demand pressure	Next quarterly demographic estimates and migration components; no exact date verified in this reading.	A reversal in the population growth rate's decline, or any of the three registered targets changing pace status
Physical capacity	September starts: October 16 at 08:15 ET, per CMHC. The detailed metropolitan completion-table date is not confirmed.	New completion observations, a change in intended-market composition, resolved survey coverage, or a comparable national net-additions measure
Workforce capacity	October Labour Force Survey release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, according to the captured September issuer release.	A later qualified structural episode or revision under the existing rule, or the youth-prime unemployment gap moving outside its own pre-pandemic historical band. The withdrawn January window cannot supply authority for a different episode.
Fiscal room	The next applicable government-finance or GDP release, or audited Public Accounts. No exact next date is established in this reading.	The deficit-to-GDP ratio narrowing toward the government's own stated anchor, or the current quarterly deficit streak breaking
2026-10-29	Payroll employment and job vacancies, August 2026 (Statistics Canada)	The next period and prior revisions. Date stated in the issuer’s September 24 July payroll and vacancies release.
2026-11-12	Building permits, September 2026 (Statistics Canada)	The next unadjusted dwelling-unit count and prior revisions. Date stated in the issuer’s October 14 August permits release.

All upcoming evidence on Now →

Demand pressure

How fast population and migration flows are growing against the physical stock built to hold them.

MeasuredContestedBlockedas of 2026 Q3

Behind pace

Reduce Canada's temporary population to less than 5% of the total population by the end of 2027

Issuer: Government of Canada (IRCC, 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan). Stated in 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, supplementary information.

Latest observed: 6.65 (2026 Q3) against target 5.

Source: Issuer publication · accessed 2026-07-07

On pace

Stabilize permanent resident admissions at 380,000 per year for 2026-2028

Issuer: Government of Canada (IRCC, 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan). Stated in 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan.

Latest observed: 262,245 (8 months to Aug 2026) against target 380,000.

Source: Issuer publication · accessed 2026-07-07

No pace verdict

New temporary resident arrivals of 385,000 in 2026 (370,000 in 2027 and 2028)

Issuer: Government of Canada (IRCC, 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan). Stated in 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan.

Latest observed: — against target 385,000.

Source: Issuer publication · accessed 2026-07-07

Physical capacity

How much housing is authorized, started, under construction and completed—and what these separately observed stages can tell us about delivery.

ContestedBlockedas of Sep 2026

ModuleHousing Delivery

What can we observe between permission to build and a completed home?

What would change it: The next CMHC edition, revised counts or clarified coverage; a national net-additions measure would allow a different benchmark comparison.

Construction-table assessment · 2026-09-30

From permission to completion

16,899 homes completed in metropolitan areas in August 2026.

These metropolitan counts narrow the earlier data gap; they do not tell us whether Canada’s national housing shortage is closing.

Source check · 2026-09-30 — The matching August 2026 geography and intended-market workbooks, published September 27, are now qualified. Starts and completions reconcile across all 42 area rows and the issuer total; Ottawa and Gatineau are separate rows. June and July editions remain below. Geography publication · Intended-market publication.

Four separate observations, not the same homes moving through a funnel. Permits cover Canada; the other three measures below cover CMHC’s metropolitan-area tables. All are unadjusted dwelling counts.

01 · Authorized

24,705

August 2026

Canada · permits issued during the month. Permission to build does not establish a start.

Source and definition ↓

02 · Started

15,729

August 2026

Metropolitan areas · construction began during the month. This is a flow.

Source and definition ↓

03 · Under construction

360,554

End of August 2026

Metropolitan areas · unfinished units at month end. This is a stock, not a monthly flow.

Source and definition ↓

04 · Completed

16,899

August 2026

Metropolitan areas · gross completions during the month. Not net of demolitions or conversions.

Source and definition ↓

A completion is a construction milestone, not proof of occupancy; CMHC can count a unit with up to 10% of work unfinished. These observations do not measure cancellations or a permit-to-completion success rate.

What kind of homes were completed?

Selected metropolitan areas, August 2026. Each bar shows the mix within that area, not its share of Canada. Rental is the intended market; it does not establish affordability or who moved in.

HomeownershipRentalCondoCo-opUnclassified

Halifax776Homeownership: 201 · Rental: 575 · Condo: 0 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0

Montréal2,070Homeownership: 199 · Rental: 1,187 · Condo: 630 · Co-op: 54 · Unclassified: 0

Toronto2,362Homeownership: 599 · Rental: 115 · Condo: 1,648 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0

Calgary1,715Homeownership: 724 · Rental: 820 · Condo: 171 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0

Edmonton1,532Homeownership: 740 · Rental: 790 · Condo: 2 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0

Vancouver1,332Homeownership: 251 · Rental: 626 · Condo: 455 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0

Read the metropolitan totals and earlier editions

Unadjusted dwelling units; separate flow and stock measures
Month	Starts	Under construction at month end	Completions
June 2026	18,299	364,508	17,588
July 2026	16,374	362,059	18,797
August 2026	15,729	360,554	16,899

Each edition is retained separately. These unadjusted monthly observations do not establish a trend or a cancellation rate.

What the national benchmarks mean

These are separate national models with different measures and horizons. CMHC’s September 2026 range is annual housing starts to 2036; the retained 2025 comparisons use completions. The monthly metropolitan counts above cannot establish national progress against these paths.

CMHC (2025-06): 478,000 net completions per year. Restore housing affordability to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels by 2035, on a rolling 10-year horizon Historical model. Source · Checked 2026-07-07.
CMHC (2026-09): 417,000–469,000 starts per year. Restore 2019 housing affordability by 2036 Source · Checked 2026-09-14.
PBO (2025-08): 290,000 net completions per year. Return the total vacancy rate to its 2000-2019 historical average (6.4%) by 2035, while absorbing suppressed household formation (714,000 households projected by 2035) Source · Checked 2026-07-08.

What remains missing—and what changed

Before this update, Countability’s three Statistics Canada completion series ended in 2022. They still do. The preserved direct CMHC Excel files provide reproducible metropolitan counts for the months shown above.

The broader provincial totals include smaller-centre observations despite notes saying completions are collected only in metropolitan areas plus Charlottetown. We use the explicitly labelled metropolitan tables and leave that wider coverage conflict unresolved. The 2023 geography change prevents a simple splice onto the older record.

National net additions, matching conversions and demolitions, cancellations, and linked permit-to-occupancy cohorts remain unavailable on a verified comparable basis in this reading.

Sources, dates and exact observations

Permits: Statistics Canada, table 34-10-0292-01; August 2026, Canada, new dwellings, unadjusted. Permits follow Statistics Canada’s release schedule; starts and completions follow CMHC’s.

Construction stages workbook, June 2026 · Published 2026-07-30. Archived copy SHA-256: c83f300be909ae7aa94a2e6c33486dc4e38a141e1f3a609d4ea403cbea9a4d0d

June 2026 metropolitan totals: starts: Table A4_1!F50; under construction: Table A5_1!F50; completions: Table A4_1!K50. Counts are read from those cells; category and geography sums are checked separately.

Construction stages workbook, July 2026 · Published 2026-08-25. Archived copy SHA-256: 79354815f627c24dd246d90c91f7cc7151f089f1964e39cb3704592a55779012

Intended market workbook, July 2026 · Published 2026-08-25. Archived copy SHA-256: e0d01da6380737d3b8ea981e7deaa344de45ebd8bea4e89a84f401b22d1061be

July 2026 metropolitan totals: starts: Table A4_1!F50; under construction: Table A5_1!F50; completions: Table A4_1!K50. Counts are read from those cells; category and geography sums are checked separately.

Construction stages workbook, August 2026 · Published 2026-09-27. Archived copy SHA-256: 5c261613b14997680467cd6894868aa57b368eb65dd35f8bc705fa718c5065e8

Intended market workbook, August 2026 · Published 2026-09-27. Archived copy SHA-256: 90b2f5e6edc6a5ee1cfec1abc6fa19060855799c7da6989e0a48ed5d7c64bf9e

August 2026 metropolitan totals: starts: Table A4_1!F50; under construction: Table A5_1!F50; completions: Table A4_1!K50. Counts are read from those cells; category and geography sums are checked separately.

Halifax intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C17; Rental: Table F5-4!D17; Condo: Table F5-4!E17; Co-op: Table F5-4!F17; Not Available: Table F5-4!G17; Total: Table F5-4!H17.

Montréal intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C26; Rental: Table F5-4!D26; Condo: Table F5-4!E26; Co-op: Table F5-4!F26; Not Available: Table F5-4!G26; Total: Table F5-4!H26.

Toronto intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C42; Rental: Table F5-4!D42; Condo: Table F5-4!E42; Co-op: Table F5-4!F42; Not Available: Table F5-4!G42; Total: Table F5-4!H42.

Calgary intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C10; Rental: Table F5-4!D10; Condo: Table F5-4!E10; Co-op: Table F5-4!F10; Not Available: Table F5-4!G10; Total: Table F5-4!H10.

Edmonton intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C13; Rental: Table F5-4!D13; Condo: Table F5-4!E13; Co-op: Table F5-4!F13; Not Available: Table F5-4!G13; Total: Table F5-4!H13.

Vancouver intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C44; Rental: Table F5-4!D44; Condo: Table F5-4!E44; Co-op: Table F5-4!F44; Not Available: Table F5-4!G44; Total: Table F5-4!H44.

Tabular observations — Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Starts, Completions and Under Construction; Starts and Completions by Intended Market, June 2026, July 2026, August 2026. This information is reproduced and distributed on an “as is” basis with the permission of CMHC.

Charts and comparisons — Adapted from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Starts and Completions Survey tables, June 2026, July 2026, August 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation of this product.

INFERRED

CMHC's 2025-06 housing benchmark uses a different measure from starts

Canada started 248,256 homes in the 4 quarters to 2026 Q3 (actual, all areas). CMHC's 2025-06 modelled benchmark — restore housing affordability to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels by 2035, on a rolling 10-year horizon — implies ~478,000 net completions per year over 2025-2035. The comparison crosses unit bases: the benchmark is completions-denominated, but official all-areas WDS completions end in 2022 (latest annual figure: 219,942 in 2022). Direct CMHC metropolitan completion counts are now held, but they are gross monthly units on narrower geography, not this national net-additions basis. Current starts are shown as context, not compliance. The benchmark is a model with stated assumptions, not an observation. Their cumulative additional-unit gaps are 2.60 million (CMHC) and 690,000 (PBO), about 3.8 times apart; these models use different objectives and assumptions (see the housing baseline conflict). This comparison uses the superseded 2025 CMHC model; the current 2026 range uses annual starts through 2036 and is displayed separately.

Technical details

Method: Trailing 4-quarter sum of actual housing starts ÷ CMHC benchmark annual rate × 100. Benchmark from cmhc-supply-gap-2025 (2025-06), taken as published; unit-basis mismatch stated.

Source: Statistics Canada / CMHC — Housing starts, under construction and completions, all areas, quarterly · CMHC — Canada's Housing Supply Shortages: Moving to a New Framework (2025, modelled benchmark)

INFERRED

PBO's 2025-08 housing benchmark uses a different measure from starts

Canada started 248,256 homes in the 4 quarters to 2026 Q3 (actual, all areas). PBO's 2025-08 modelled benchmark — return the total vacancy rate to its 2000-2019 historical average (6.4%) by 2035, while absorbing suppressed household formation (714,000 households projected by 2035) — implies ~290,000 net completions per year over 2025-2035. The comparison crosses unit bases: the benchmark is completions-denominated, but official all-areas WDS completions end in 2022 (latest annual figure: 219,942 in 2022). Direct CMHC metropolitan completion counts are now held, but they are gross monthly units on narrower geography, not this national net-additions basis. Current starts are shown as context, not compliance. The benchmark is a model with stated assumptions, not an observation. Their cumulative additional-unit gaps are 2.60 million (CMHC) and 690,000 (PBO), about 3.8 times apart; these models use different objectives and assumptions (see the housing baseline conflict).

Technical details

Method: Trailing 4-quarter sum of actual housing starts ÷ PBO benchmark annual rate × 100. Benchmark from pbo-housing-gap-2025 (2025-08), taken as published; unit-basis mismatch stated.

Source: Statistics Canada / CMHC — Housing starts, under construction and completions, all areas, quarterly · PBO — Household Formation and the Housing Stock: Estimating the Housing Gap in 2035 (modelled benchmark)

Evidence gap

How many homes is Canada actually completing right now?

What is missing: Narrowed September 8, 2026: a documented CMHC Excel route now supplies reproducible June and July 2026 metropolitan starts, under-construction stocks and gross completions, with July intended-market detail. The three held Statistics Canada completion mirrors still end in 2022. The broader CMHC provincial totals include smaller-centre values despite conflicting survey-coverage notes, so this reading uses the explicitly labelled metropolitan tables. A current, verified all-areas completion series and national net-additions measure remain outside the comparable evidence held here. Update September 30, 2026: the matching August workbooks extend the same metropolitan record, including intended-market detail; all area totals reconcile. The national coverage and net-additions limits remain.

Consequence: The machine-readable-route branch of the original closing criterion is met for metropolitan counts. This is a narrowing, not restoration of all-areas coverage or a national benchmark-compliance measure. Gross monthly completions on metropolitan geography cannot be divided by either institution’s national annual net-additions benchmark. Cancellation and occupancy outcomes remain separate gaps.

What would close it: Restoration of the post-2022 completions series in Statistics Canada's public data tables, or confirmation of a stable, documented, machine-readable CMHC source (e.g., a downloadable dataset or API distinct from the HMIP interactive portal) that Countability could collect automatically.

Evidence gap

How many authorized or started homes are cancelled before completion?

What is missing: No continuously updated machine-readable cancellation count or rate is held on a verified comparable basis for this reading. The qualified CMHC construction tables report starts, stocks and completions; stock adjustments for cessation or unit-count changes do not isolate cancellations. The separately unfetched Market Absorption Survey concerns absorption after completion, not pre-completion cancellation; it is not activated by this source admission.

Consequence: The Housing Delivery module now observes separate construction stages. It still cannot measure a cancellation rate, a linked permit-to-completion conversion rate or occupancy. Missing cancellations are never imputed as zero; broader source discovery remains open under the registered criterion.

What would close it: CMHC, a provincial regulator, or a municipal permitting authority publishing a continuously updated, machine-readable cancellation count or rate for authorized or started residential units.

CMHCvintage 2025-06Historical benchmark

Canada's Housing Supply Shortages: Moving to a New Framework

Restore housing affordability to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels by 2035, on a rolling 10-year horizon

total annual requirement 478,000; cumulative additional units above the baseline outlook 2,600,000.

Measure: net completions.

Historical 2025 model, retained for its dated comparison. The current CMHC model uses annual starts through 2036; this older model uses net completions through 2035.

Source: CMHC publication · accessed 2026-07-07

PBOvintage 2025-08Current model

Household Formation and the Housing Stock: Estimating the Housing Gap in 2035 (RP-2526-007-S)

Return the total vacancy rate to its 2000-2019 historical average (6.4%) by 2035, while absorbing suppressed household formation (714,000 households projected by 2035)

total annual requirement 290,000; cumulative additional units above the baseline outlook 690,000.

Measure: net completions.

This model restores the historical total vacancy rate; it is not an affordability-restoration target.

Net completions include conversions and subtract demolitions. Housing starts are a different measure, so the starts comparison is context only, not progress against this requirement.

Source: PBO publication · accessed 2026-07-08

Institutions disagreemagnitude 3.8x

How many additional homes does Canada need by 2035?

CMHC: 2,600,000 additional units by 2035

Units needed to restore housing affordability to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels by 2035; implies ~478,000 net completions per year (range 430,000-480,000) → source

PBO: 690,000 additional units by 2035

Units needed to return the total vacancy rate to its 2000-2019 average (6.4%) by 2035 and absorb suppressed household formation; implies ~290,000 completions per year → source

Why they differ: Different target definitions, not different data: CMHC models the supply needed to restore a chosen affordability level; PBO models the supply needed to normalize vacancy rates and absorb suppressed households. PBO's report states that CMHC's target would imply a ~13% total vacancy rate, which PBO characterizes as abnormally high.

Countability’s position: None. Actual construction is tracked against both paths, each in its own units, with each issuer's definition displayed.

Workforce capacity

Whether employment is expanding in step with the population growth placing demand on it -- and whether it is getting harder to start a working life, cyclically or structurally.

as of Sep 2026

Wages and prices · Through September 2026

Has hourly pay kept up with prices?

Canada · employees aged 15 and older · all industries, full- and part-time.

Average hourly pay, adjusted for consumer prices, was 5.2% above January 2019.

Different months of the year: this runs from January 2019 to September 2026. Seasonal patterns may affect the comparison; neither series is seasonally adjusted.

Over the year to September 2026, hourly pay changed by +2.3% and consumer prices by +3.1%. After adjusting for prices, the change was −0.7%. Comparing the same month a year apart reduces the seasonal mismatch.

This describes average employee hourly pay, not the experience of the same workers over time. Changing jobs, industries and the mix of full-time and part-time workers can move the average. It does not tell us whether households can afford more.

Hourly pay

+33.9%

Average wage in current dollars · January 2019 to September 2026

Consumer prices

+27.2%

All-items CPI · January 2019 to September 2026

Pay adjusted for prices

+5.2%

Exact wage-to-price ratio · January 2019 to September 2026

Two levels, one starting point

Both lines start at 100 in January 2019. A value of 120 means a 20% rise since that month. These are levels; inflation and wage growth describe how fast those levels change.

Average hourly payConsumer prices

Canada; monthly, not seasonally adjusted. January 2019 is a fixed starting point before the pandemic, not a seasonal adjustment. Choosing another base month changes the longer comparison. A rise in average pay can also reflect a change in who is employed.

Latest levels: average hourly wage $37.64; all-items CPI 170.0 (2002 = 100), September 2026. The wage figure is an average, not a median, and is before tax.

What changed since the previous month?

The annual price-adjusted change was −1.0% over the year to August 2026, compared with −0.7% over the year to September 2026. These are overlapping twelve-month comparisons, not one-month growth.

This level comparison was added on September 8, 2026. The existing wage-minus-inflation reading remains a difference in percentage points. This separate addition divides wage growth factors by price growth factors; the two methods must not be spliced.

Read the exact monthly observations

Unadjusted monthly observations; indices use January 2019 = 100
Month	Hourly wage ($)	CPI (2002=100)	Wage index	Price index	Price-adjusted wage index
September 2026	37.64	170.00	133.85	127.25	105.19
August 2026	37.02	169.80	131.65	127.10	103.58
July 2026	37.17	169.90	132.18	127.17	103.94
June 2026	37.20	169.00	132.29	126.50	104.58
May 2026	37.24	169.60	132.43	126.95	104.32
April 2026	37.77	168.00	134.32	125.75	106.81
March 2026	37.73	167.40	134.17	125.30	107.08
February 2026	37.56	165.90	133.57	124.18	107.56
January 2026	37.17	165.00	132.18	123.50	107.03
December 2025	37.06	165.00	131.79	123.50	106.71
November 2025	37.00	165.40	131.58	123.80	106.28
October 2025	37.06	165.30	131.79	123.73	106.52
September 2025	36.78	164.90	130.80	123.43	105.97
August 2025	36.31	164.80	129.13	123.35	104.68
July 2025	36.16	164.90	128.59	123.43	104.18
June 2025	36.01	164.40	128.06	123.05	104.07
May 2025	36.14	164.30	128.52	122.98	104.51
April 2025	36.13	163.40	128.49	122.31	105.05
March 2025	36.05	163.50	128.20	122.38	104.76
February 2025	36.14	163.00	128.52	122.01	105.34
January 2025	35.99	161.30	127.99	120.73	106.01
December 2024	35.83	161.20	127.42	120.66	105.60
November 2024	35.73	161.80	127.06	121.11	104.92
October 2024	35.79	161.80	127.28	121.11	105.09
September 2024	35.61	161.10	126.64	120.58	105.02
August 2024	35.19	161.80	125.14	121.11	103.33
July 2024	34.99	162.10	124.43	121.33	102.55
June 2024	34.91	161.40	124.15	120.81	102.76
May 2024	34.94	161.50	124.25	120.88	102.79
April 2024	34.93	160.60	124.22	120.21	103.33
March 2024	34.81	159.80	123.79	119.61	103.49
February 2024	34.82	158.80	123.83	118.86	104.18
January 2024	34.76	158.30	123.61	118.49	104.33
December 2023	34.46	158.30	122.55	118.49	103.42
November 2023	34.29	158.80	121.94	118.86	102.59
October 2023	34.10	158.60	121.27	118.71	102.15
September 2023	34.03	158.50	121.02	118.64	102.01
August 2023	33.50	158.70	119.13	118.79	100.29
July 2023	33.25	158.10	118.24	118.34	99.92
June 2023	33.13	157.20	117.82	117.66	100.13
May 2023	33.26	157.00	118.28	117.51	100.65
April 2023	33.37	156.40	118.67	117.07	101.37
March 2023	33.13	155.30	117.82	116.24	101.35
February 2023	33.17	154.50	117.96	115.64	102.00
January 2023	33.03	153.90	117.46	115.19	101.97
December 2022	32.68	153.10	116.22	114.60	101.41
November 2022	32.72	154.00	116.36	115.27	100.94
October 2022	32.53	153.80	115.68	115.12	100.49
September 2022	32.39	152.70	115.18	114.30	100.78
August 2022	31.93	152.60	113.55	114.22	99.41
July 2022	31.66	153.10	112.59	114.60	98.25
June 2022	31.80	152.90	113.09	114.45	98.81
May 2022	31.65	151.90	112.55	113.70	98.99
April 2022	31.74	149.80	112.87	112.13	100.67
March 2022	31.45	148.90	111.84	111.45	100.35
February 2022	31.48	146.80	111.95	109.88	101.88
January 2022	31.62	145.30	112.45	108.76	103.39
December 2021	31.20	144.00	110.95	107.78	102.94
November 2021	30.95	144.20	110.06	107.93	101.97
October 2021	30.88	143.90	109.82	107.71	101.95
September 2021	30.88	142.90	109.82	106.96	102.67
August 2021	30.45	142.60	108.29	106.74	101.45
July 2021	30.36	142.30	107.97	106.51	101.36
June 2021	30.31	141.40	107.79	105.84	101.84
May 2021	30.55	141.00	108.64	105.54	102.94
April 2021	30.74	140.30	109.32	105.01	104.10
March 2021	30.49	139.60	108.43	104.49	103.77
February 2021	30.64	138.90	108.96	103.97	104.80
January 2021	30.75	138.20	109.35	103.44	105.71
December 2020	30.20	137.40	107.40	102.84	104.43
November 2020	30.14	137.70	107.18	103.07	103.99
October 2020	30.26	137.50	107.61	102.92	104.56
September 2020	30.06	136.90	106.90	102.47	104.32
August 2020	29.88	137.00	106.26	102.54	103.62
July 2020	29.96	137.20	106.54	102.69	103.75
June 2020	30.29	137.20	107.72	102.69	104.89
May 2020	30.97	136.10	110.14	101.87	108.11
April 2020	31.14	135.70	110.74	101.57	109.03
March 2020	29.88	136.60	106.26	102.25	103.93
February 2020	29.09	137.40	103.45	102.84	100.59
January 2020	28.95	136.80	102.95	102.40	100.54
December 2019	28.64	136.40	101.85	102.10	99.76
November 2019	28.66	136.40	101.92	102.10	99.83
October 2019	28.66	136.60	101.92	102.25	99.68
September 2019	28.62	136.20	101.78	101.95	99.84
August 2019	28.10	136.80	99.93	102.40	97.59
July 2019	28.13	137.00	100.04	102.54	97.55
June 2019	28.26	136.30	100.50	102.02	98.51
May 2019	28.11	136.60	99.96	102.25	97.77
April 2019	28.18	136.00	100.21	101.80	98.44
March 2019	28.13	135.40	100.04	101.35	98.71
February 2019	28.16	134.50	100.14	100.67	99.47
January 2019	28.12	133.60	100.00	100.00	100.00

Sources, calculation and limits

Canada; all employees, both full- and part-time, all industries, age 15+; unadjusted average hourly wage and all-items CPI; January 2019 = 100.

The fixed January 2019 comparison can end in a different calendar month; seasonal patterns may affect that difference because neither series is seasonally adjusted. Same-month annual comparisons reduce this mismatch but do not control for a changing employee mix. The employee mix can change. This is not median pay, a fixed-worker wage increase, take-home pay, annual household income or household purchasing power. Hours, taxes and individual spending baskets are not measured here.

Price-adjusted change (%) = 100 × [(ending wage ÷ starting wage) ÷ (ending CPI ÷ starting CPI) − 1]. We calculate from the source levels before rounding. The wage and price indices are shown to two decimals and changes to one decimal.

Statistics Canada: Employee wages · v2132579 · observations held through September 2026; captured 2026-10-10. Archived copy SHA-256: 777d203be9ba8d8fd3a238a57ebfe5871787dafa10eff5668a430dea76fdf6cc

Statistics Canada: All-items consumer prices · v41690973 · observations held through September 2026; captured 2026-10-19. Archived copy SHA-256: b30e67fb3aaa6cda4753933f429da0e4d1b7de336a1428e421b616152013dda5

Adapted from Statistics Canada, tables 14-10-0063-01 and 18-10-0004-01, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

The comparison advances only when both series have a verified observation for the same month. New source releases and revisions trigger a fresh calculation and source check; employment headlines alone do not update this panel.

ModuleEntry-Level Work

Is starting a working life getting harder, cyclically or structurally?

What would change it: The youth-prime unemployment gap moving outside its own pre-pandemic historical band

OBSERVED

Average hourly wage, % y/y (unadjusted): different averages either side of Nov 2024

A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 months selects a split in Average hourly wage, % y/y (unadjusted) at Nov 2024: mean 4.97 before vs 3.45 after (difference = 3.0× pooled variability). The selected date divides two sets of observations; it does not establish when a change began. This descriptive comparison is not a significance test and does not attribute a cause. Window choice and seasonal patterns can affect it.

Technical details

Method: Descriptive two-segment mean comparison; selects the largest |difference in means| / pooled standard deviation, reported at ratios of at least 1.5 with at least eight observations per segment. No change-date or statistical-significance inference.

Source: Statistics Canada — Employee wages by industry, monthly, unadjusted

CORRELATED

Movements in Net NPR change, quarterly have tended to precede movements in Asylum claims, monthly by about 4 quarters in this window (lagged r=+0.68 vs contemporaneous r=+0.18). This is a timing pattern only — an observed pattern, not a causal claim.

Co-movement and timing statements do not attribute causality.
Identified from a curated list of series pairs, not a search over all series.
At least one input is IRCC data rounded to the nearest 5.

CORRELATED

Employment, age 15+ (SA) and Population growth, % y/y moved in opposite directions over the 12 quarters to 2026-07 (r=-0.94). Correlation is not causation.

Co-movement and timing statements do not attribute causality.
Identified from a curated list of series pairs, not a search over all series.

Fiscal room

The federal government's own successive fiscal-balance projections for the current year, held on the record until the audited outcome settles.

OBSERVED

Federal budgetary balance (National Accounts basis, SAAR): 13 consecutive quarters at a negative level

Federal budgetary balance (National Accounts basis, SAAR) has been negative for 13 consecutive quarters, beginning in 2023 Q2. The latest reading is −$57,964,000,000 in 2026 Q2. A streak counts consecutive periods in one direction; it carries no causal claim and does not imply the run will continue.

Technical details

Method: Count consecutive quarters with a negative level, most recent backward; reported only from 6 consecutive quarters onward.

Source: Statistics Canada — Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, quarterly (National Accounts basis)

Finance CanadaResolution

The federal budgetary balance for fiscal 2025-26, across four Finance Canada projection vintages, before the audited Public Accounts settle it

Canada's federal budgetary balance (surplus/deficit) for fiscal year 2025-26, as the Department of Finance Canada's own summary fiscal outlook stated it in four successive publications -- Budget 2024, the 2024 Fall Economic Statement, Budget 2025, and the Spring Economic Update 2026 -- each read from that publication's own headline fiscal table. No audited outcome exists yet: the Public Accounts of Canada for 2025-26 will settle this fiscal year in autumn 2026, and this entry pins the projection lineage on the record before that settlement, adjudicating none of it.

Fiscal 2025-26: Budget 2024 projection vs. FES 2024 projection

comparable · difference -3.3 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the later publication's projected value minus the earlier one's, for the same fiscal year (2025-26), in billions of Canadian dollars. A negative number means the later projection is a larger deficit t…

Fiscal 2025-26: FES 2024 projection vs. Budget 2025 projection

comparable · difference -36.1 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the later publication's projected value minus the earlier one's, for the same fiscal year (2025-26), in billions of Canadian dollars. Same-issuer vintage comparison; no audited outcome exists yet. pct…

Fiscal 2025-26: Budget 2025 projection vs. SEU 2026 projection

comparable · difference 11.4 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the later publication's projected value minus the earlier one's, for the same fiscal year (2025-26), in billions of Canadian dollars. A positive number means the later projection is a smaller deficit …

Fiscal 2025-26: first projection (Budget 2024) vs. latest captured projection (SEU 2026)

comparable · difference -28.0 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the latest captured projected value minus the first projected value, for fiscal 2025-26, in billions of Canadian dollars (the cumulative movement across all three re-projections). This is the entry's …

Fiscal 2025-26: SEU 2026 projection vs. Fiscal Monitor unaudited year-end observation

comparable · difference 11.623 · same issuer. Numeric difference: the Fiscal Monitor's unaudited year-end observation minus Finance Canada's final pre-settlement projection, for fiscal 2025-26, in billions of Canadian dollars. A positive number means the observed ye…

No audited outcome exists yet. This entry is a pinned projection lineage, not a projection-vs-outturn resolution: every value is one of Finance Canada's own successive projections for fiscal 2025-26, and none is an observed or audited result. The Public Accounts of Canada for 2025-26 (expected autumn 2026, issued by the Receiver General) will settle this fiscal year; when it does, a later reading records the audited outcome and the projection-vs-outturn resolution steps -- nothing here is edited in place. The entry is registered now so the four first-published projections are on the record, hash-pinned, before the outcome that would otherwise reframe them exists.
Every value is restated exactly as Finance Canada first published it and none has been attested by an independent auditor. These two provenance axes are carried on every value so that, when the audited Public Accounts outcome is added, its own assurance and its own basis are stated on the same two axes and never silently conflated with these projections.
This entry compares Finance Canada against itself: the same headline quantity, the same fiscal year, four successive projection vintages of the same summary fiscal outlook. It is a projection-drift record, not a disagreement between institutions -- the pace and direction at which one issuer's own projection for a single year moved as it re-forecast. No direction of movement is described as more or less sound; the signed difference in billions is the disclosed comparison.

Source: Issuer publication · accessed 2026-07-10

View the full public lineage →

Access to care

2025 health snapshot · reviewed October 26, 2026

Adults 18 and over, Canada excluding territories. Point estimates with published 95% confidence intervals.

Indicator	Estimate	95% interval
Perceived health, fair or poor	14.2%	13.6%–14.7%
Perceived mental health, fair or poor	15.1%	14.5%–15.7%
Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	22.5%	21.8%–23.2%
Diabetes	8.9%	8.5%–9.3%
High blood pressure	19.6%	19.0%–20.1%
Has a primary health care provider	83.4%	82.7%–84.1%

Current regional estimates, adults 18+, 2025

Current regional estimates, adults 18+, 2025
Group	Indicator	Estimate	95% interval	Quality
Canada (excluding territories)	Perceived health, fair or poor	14.2%	13.6%–14.7%	Normal
Canada (excluding territories)	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	15.1%	14.5%–15.7%	Normal
Canada (excluding territories)	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	22.5%	21.8%–23.2%	Normal
Canada (excluding territories)	Diabetes	8.9%	8.5%–9.3%	Normal
Canada (excluding territories)	High blood pressure	19.6%	19.0%–20.1%	Normal
Newfoundland and Labrador	Perceived health, fair or poor	19.1%	16.2%–22.2%	Normal
Newfoundland and Labrador	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	16.6%	13.9%–19.7%	Normal
Newfoundland and Labrador	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	19.7%	16.6%–23.3%	Normal
Newfoundland and Labrador	Diabetes	11.0%	9.2%–13.1%	Normal
Newfoundland and Labrador	High blood pressure	28.0%	25.2%–30.9%	Normal
Prince Edward Island	Perceived health, fair or poor	12.5%	9.7%–15.9%	Normal
Prince Edward Island	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	14.5%	11.2%–18.7%	Normal
Prince Edward Island	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	18.2%	14.3%–22.8%	Normal
Prince Edward Island	Diabetes	8.7%	6.6%–11.5%	Normal
Prince Edward Island	High blood pressure	18.0%	14.9%–21.6%	Normal
Nova Scotia	Perceived health, fair or poor	18.2%	16.2%–20.3%	Normal
Nova Scotia	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	21.2%	18.7%–24.0%	Normal
Nova Scotia	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	23.0%	20.6%–25.6%	Normal
Nova Scotia	Diabetes	11.6%	10.2%–13.3%	Normal
Nova Scotia	High blood pressure	25.5%	23.5%–27.5%	Normal
New Brunswick	Perceived health, fair or poor	16.3%	14.3%–18.5%	Normal
New Brunswick	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	15.1%	12.9%–17.6%	Normal
New Brunswick	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	20.0%	17.6%–22.6%	Normal
New Brunswick	Diabetes	12.2%	10.6%–14.1%	Normal
New Brunswick	High blood pressure	23.4%	21.5%–25.4%	Normal
Quebec	Perceived health, fair or poor	11.3%	10.3%–12.3%	Normal
Quebec	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	9.0%	8.1%–10.1%	Normal
Quebec	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	19.9%	18.6%–21.4%	Normal
Quebec	Diabetes	8.5%	7.7%–9.3%	Normal
Quebec	High blood pressure	18.6%	17.6%–19.6%	Normal
Ontario	Perceived health, fair or poor	14.5%	13.5%–15.5%	Normal
Ontario	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	16.2%	15.1%–17.5%	Normal
Ontario	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	23.2%	21.9%–24.5%	Normal
Ontario	Diabetes	9.4%	8.6%–10.3%	Normal
Ontario	High blood pressure	19.9%	18.9%–21.0%	Normal
Manitoba	Perceived health, fair or poor	15.2%	13.4%–17.1%	Normal
Manitoba	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	15.8%	13.8%–18.0%	Normal
Manitoba	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	22.4%	20.2%–24.8%	Normal
Manitoba	Diabetes	9.3%	8.0%–10.8%	Normal
Manitoba	High blood pressure	22.2%	20.3%–24.3%	Normal
Saskatchewan	Perceived health, fair or poor	14.3%	12.6%–16.2%	Normal
Saskatchewan	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	15.6%	13.6%–17.7%	Normal
Saskatchewan	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	21.6%	19.3%–24.1%	Normal
Saskatchewan	Diabetes	9.1%	7.8%–10.6%	Normal
Saskatchewan	High blood pressure	22.5%	20.5%–24.7%	Normal
Alberta	Perceived health, fair or poor	14.8%	13.4%–16.3%	Normal
Alberta	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	18.4%	16.8%–20.2%	Normal
Alberta	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	25.5%	23.7%–27.4%	Normal
Alberta	Diabetes	8.3%	7.4%–9.3%	Normal
Alberta	High blood pressure	18.5%	17.2%–19.8%	Normal
British Columbia	Perceived health, fair or poor	15.4%	14.1%–16.9%	Normal
British Columbia	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	16.9%	15.5%–18.5%	Normal
British Columbia	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	22.9%	21.2%–24.8%	Normal
British Columbia	Diabetes	7.2%	6.4%–8.1%	Normal
British Columbia	High blood pressure	17.2%	16.1%–18.4%	Normal
Canada (excluding territories)	Has a primary health care provider	83.4%	82.7%–84.1%	Normal
Newfoundland and Labrador	Has a primary health care provider	75.9%	71.0%–80.1%	Normal
Prince Edward Island	Has a primary health care provider	66.3%	60.5%–71.7%	Normal
Nova Scotia	Has a primary health care provider	83.8%	80.2%–86.9%	Normal
New Brunswick	Has a primary health care provider	79.5%	75.4%–83.1%	Normal
Quebec	Has a primary health care provider	72.3%	70.6%–73.9%	Normal
Ontario	Has a primary health care provider	88.8%	87.6%–90.0%	Normal
Manitoba	Has a primary health care provider	85.4%	82.0%–88.3%	Normal
Saskatchewan	Has a primary health care provider	82.6%	79.6%–85.3%	Normal
Alberta	Has a primary health care provider	86.2%	84.4%–87.9%	Normal
British Columbia	Has a primary health care provider	84.2%	82.5%–85.8%	Normal

Current age estimates, Canada excluding territories, 2025

Current age estimates, Canada excluding territories, 2025
Group	Indicator	Estimate	95% interval	Quality
18 to 34 years	Perceived health, fair or poor	9.6%	8.6%–10.7%	Normal
18 to 34 years	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	20.8%	19.2%–22.4%	Normal
18 to 34 years	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	24.1%	22.5%–25.7%	Normal
18 to 34 years	Diabetes	1.8%	1.2%–2.5%	Normal
18 to 34 years	High blood pressure	2.7%	2.1%–3.5%	Normal
35 to 49 years	Perceived health, fair or poor	11.3%	10.2%–12.4%	Normal
35 to 49 years	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	16.2%	15.1%–17.4%	Normal
35 to 49 years	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	30.9%	29.4%–32.5%	Normal
35 to 49 years	Diabetes	5.1%	4.3%–6.0%	Normal
35 to 49 years	High blood pressure	10.0%	9.0%–11.2%	Normal
50 to 64 years	Perceived health, fair or poor	16.6%	15.4%–17.8%	Normal
50 to 64 years	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	14.3%	13.1%–15.5%	Normal
50 to 64 years	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	23.8%	22.4%–25.2%	Normal
50 to 64 years	Diabetes	13.0%	12.0%–14.1%	Normal
50 to 64 years	High blood pressure	27.3%	25.9%–28.8%	Normal
65 years and over	Perceived health, fair or poor	20.7%	19.9%–21.6%	Normal
65 years and over	Perceived mental health, fair or poor	7.4%	6.9%–8.0%	Normal
65 years and over	Perceived life stress, most days quite a bit or extremely stressful	10.4%	9.7%–11.0%	Normal
65 years and over	Diabetes	17.7%	16.9%–18.6%	Normal
65 years and over	High blood pressure	42.9%	41.9%–43.9%	Normal
18 to 34 years	Has a primary health care provider	75.3%	73.4%–77.1%	Normal
35 to 49 years	Has a primary health care provider	82.3%	80.8%–83.6%	Normal
50 to 64 years	Has a primary health care provider	87.5%	86.5%–88.5%	Normal
65 years and over	Has a primary health care provider	90.3%	89.6%–91.0%	Normal

E means use with caution. Unavailable or suppressed values are not filled; overlapping conditions must not be added.

2025 chronic-condition questionnaire changed to mark all that apply; no year-over-year change inferred. Primary-provider indicator uses table 13-10-0986-01, adults 18+, Canada excluding territories. Earlier provider series ends 2024 and is not spliced. Earlier 2024 detailed estimates remain dated in the record and are not the latest CCHS snapshot. Having a provider does not establish timely access.

Health indicators; Primary-provider indicator. Adapted from Statistics Canada, tables 13-10-0905-01 and 13-10-0986-01, 2025. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

Health · assessed 2026-10-26

A longer life. Uneven access to care.

Life expectancy has regained much of its pandemic decline. Provider attachment and unmet care needs show a different part of the picture, with meaningful variation across ages and provinces.

Life expectancy at birth82.16Years · Canada · 2024, preliminary

Have a primary care provider83.4%Adults 18+ · provinces · 2025

Report unmet care needs8.8%People 15+ · provinces · 2024

The access measures use different surveys and age groups. They cannot be added or treated as opposites. The 2025 primary-provider indicator uses a separate table; no cross-table trend is inferred. Mortality estimates remain preliminary.

Primary-provider snapshot: 2025 · unmet needs and life tables: 2024 · substance harms: through March 2026

Read the full analysis →Explore the domain →Follow the Question →

Defence resources and readiness

Defence · assessed 2026-10-04

Reported spending. A separate test of readiness.

The department reports spending, staffing and persistent readiness gaps. These are separate measures of resources and delivery; their relationship cannot be reduced to a spending ratio.

DND programme spending$33.9BCanadian dollars · fiscal 2024–25

Force elements reported ready61.3%Recorded target: at least 90% · fiscal 2024–25

Occupations with critical shortfalls69.0%Higher is worse. Recorded target: at most 5% · fiscal 2024–25

Spending is nominal: not adjusted for inflation. Departmental results are self-reported. Fleet serviceability, personnel strength and project ratings do not share one denominator. Later spending plans are not later readiness results.

Results: fiscal 2024–25 · plans held through 2026–27

Read the full analysis →Explore the domain →Follow the Question →

Infrastructure delivery and the capital base

Infrastructure Delivery · assessed October 26, 2026

From a funding commitment to a working asset.

Canada’s infrastructure record has several layers: funded projects, the dates recipients report, and the wider capital base. Each reveals something useful about delivery. They cover different projects, years and owners.

Entries with a reported end16,967Of 20,423 HICC project entries; includes studies and plans

Public infrastructure investment$106.6B2025 · nominal Canadian dollars · all public industries

Latest reported project end2025-03-27The captured project file is older than the capital estimates

This is not a live construction dashboard. The project captures dated July 25, 2026 and October 26, 2026 (UTC capture dates) are identical in every byte. Approved contributions are not cash spending; eligible costs are not final costs. A reported end can mean a completed study or plan, as well as an operational asset.

Project approvals: 2002–2025 · capital and asset-life estimates: 1981–2025

Review date is not a common release or capture date; each source retains its own observation period and capture record.

Read the full analysis →Explore the domain →Follow the Question →

Investment, depreciation and the capital left per resident

In 2025, public infrastructure investment was 1.47 times estimated depreciation. The real capital stock per resident rose 2.83% from the end of 2024.

Investment after depreciation$24.59B2025 · constant-dollar accounting difference

Real stock per resident$17,298.76End of 2025 · issuer constant-price basis

Change per resident$476.332024 to 2025

Investment less depreciation is an accounting difference, not spending earmarked for expansion. Modelled depreciation is not a maintenance bill or an engineering backlog. The stock does not measure usable service, its distribution or its quality. The per-person terms explain the arithmetic, not its causes.

Each end-year stock is paired with population on the following January 1. Both endpoints use the same captured population edition; revisions can change this comparison. Population captured September 29, 2026.

Source: Statistics Canada — Infrastructure Economic Accounts, investment and net stock by asset, industry, and asset function. Canada; total public purchasing industry; all assets and functions; constant-dollar estimates.

Population: Statistics Canada — quarterly population estimates, table 17-10-0009-01.

Employer renewal, credit and financial distress

Business Dynamism & Credit · assessed October 26, 2026

A near-flat business count hides a busy economy.

Employers open, return and stop employing people every month. Read that movement alongside corporate borrowing, lenders’ conditions and formal insolvencies to see different parts of the business environment.

Active employer businesses938,9512026-06 · Canada · seasonally adjusted

Change from a year earlier6220.07% · same count series

Business insolvency filings4,75812 months to 2026-08 · bankruptcies and proposals under the BIA

An opening can be a returning employer. A closure can be temporary. Insolvency filings and corporate debt cover different populations from the employer counts; they cannot be divided into a common business failure rate or used to establish causes.

Employer dynamics: 2026-06 · corporate debt: 2026-08 · insolvencies: 2026-08 · lending survey: 2026 Q2

Review date is not a common release or capture date; each source retains its own observation period and capture record.

Read the full analysis →Explore the domain →Follow the Question →

Source update · October 26, 2026

August 2026 has 344 business insolvencies: 261 bankruptcies and 83 proposals. The twelve months through August total 4,758, -6.56% against the preceding twelve months.

This is the qualified August workbook, replacing the held July edition for insolvency tables. No selected historical cell was revised. Corporate plus individual-business filings and bankruptcy plus proposal filings reconcile, as do provincial/territorial totals. These are BIA filings, not statistical business closures or consumer insolvencies. Catalogue modification date is not an asserted release date; workbook captured October 26.

OSB monthly insolvency workbook

Directly observed

No section currently carries a directly observed finding.

Correlated or inferred

CMHC's 2025-06 housing benchmark uses a different measure from starts
PBO's 2025-08 housing benchmark uses a different measure from starts
Movements in Net NPR change, quarterly have tended to precede movements in Asylum claims, monthly by about 4 quarters in this window (lagged r=+0.68 vs contemporaneous r=+0.18). This is a timing pattern only — an observed pattern, not a causal claim.
Employment, age 15+ (SA) and Population growth, % y/y moved in opposite directions over the 12 quarters to 2026-07 (r=-0.94). Correlation is not causation.

Unresolved

New temporary resident arrivals of 385,000 in 2026 (370,000 in 2027 and 2028) — pace cannot yet be assessed against the record.
How many homes is Canada actually completing right now? ↓
How many authorized or started homes are cancelled before completion? ↓
How many additional homes does Canada need by 2035? ↓
The federal budgetary balance for fiscal 2025-26, across four Finance Canada projection vintages, before the audited… ↓

This page holds the current public record for this Monitor. For a more specific question, see Work with Countability.

Work with Countability

What this release changed

Explore the visual record

State matrix

Cross-domain tensions

The watch

Since the last reading

Next evidence

Demand pressure

Reduce Canada's temporary population to less than 5% of the total population by the end of 2027

Stabilize permanent resident admissions at 380,000 per year for 2026-2028

New temporary resident arrivals of 385,000 in 2026 (370,000 in 2027 and 2028)

Physical capacity

From permission to completion

01 · Authorized

02 · Started

03 · Under construction

04 · Completed

What kind of homes were completed?

What the national benchmarks mean

CMHC's 2025-06 housing benchmark uses a different measure from starts

PBO's 2025-08 housing benchmark uses a different measure from starts

How many homes is Canada actually completing right now?

How many authorized or started homes are cancelled before completion?

Canada's Housing Supply Shortages: Moving to a New Framework

Household Formation and the Housing Stock: Estimating the Housing Gap in 2035 (RP-2526-007-S)

How many additional homes does Canada need by 2035?

Workforce capacity

Has hourly pay kept up with prices?

Hourly pay

Consumer prices

Pay adjusted for prices

Two levels, one starting point

Average hourly wage, % y/y (unadjusted): different averages either side of Nov 2024

Fiscal room

Federal budgetary balance (National Accounts basis, SAAR): 13 consecutive quarters at a negative level

The federal budgetary balance for fiscal 2025-26, across four Finance Canada projection vintages, before the audited Public Accounts settle it

Access to care

2025 health snapshot · reviewed October 26, 2026

A longer life. Uneven access to care.

Defence resources and readiness

Reported spending. A separate test of readiness.

Infrastructure delivery and the capital base

From a funding commitment to a working asset.

Investment, depreciation and the capital left per resident

Employer renewal, credit and financial distress

A near-flat business count hides a busy economy.

Source update · October 26, 2026

Directly observed

Correlated or inferred

Unresolved

Related on this site