01 · Authorized
24,705August 2026
Canada · permits issued during the month. Permission to build does not establish a start.
Source and definition ↓Big Question
HousingDecadalContestedBlockedConsistent with researchUntestedNot measurable
Can governments still solve housing shortages?
Housing supply matters for rent pressure and affordability. Current metropolitan completion counts now show more of the construction record, but the national shortfall models disagree and a comparable national net-additions measure is still missing.
Two federal institutions disagree by a wide margin on how much housing the country needs. Current metropolitan completion counts show more of what is being built, but do not establish national net additions or progress against those models. Whether the shortage is narrowing is a question no single number currently answers.
Latest source update · October 25, 2026
September housing starts were running at an annualized 248,896 dwellings, +2.8% compared with the revised August rate of 242,223. New-home prices changed -0.2% in September; the index was 120.2 (December 2016=100), 2.0% below a year earlier. August residential construction investment was $14.50 billion in constant 2023 dollars, seasonally adjusted: -0.5% from revised July and +4.5% from August 2025.
The starts figure is a seasonally adjusted annual rate, not the number of homes started that month. August starts were revised from 229,046 to 242,223 (+13,177), and July from 229,360 to 246,341 (+16,981). September is 2.8% above revised August; comparing it with the earlier August edition would give 8.7%. The captured mirror does not explain the revision cause. Three investment observations were also revised. New-home prices cover new single, semi-detached and row houses, not resale homes or condominium apartments. The metropolitan completions snapshot below remains the separate August CMHC edition; the separate quarterly update below advances actual starts to Q3.
34-10-0158-01; 18-10-0205-01; 34-10-0293-01. Sources captured October 26 UTC (October 25 Toronto); reference periods and issuer release dates remain separate.
Source update · October 26, 2026
During 2026 Q3, 63,641 dwellings started on the unadjusted all-areas measure, including 38,413 apartment and other units. These quarterly actual counts are distinct from the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate.
The three completion/under-construction mirror successors contain unavailable observations, not zero counts. Their retained numeric mirror histories end in 2022; the separate qualified metropolitan CMHC completion snapshot remains August 2026. Statistics Canada redistributed the starts data October 19; that date is separate from CMHC’s October 16 calendar.
Construction-table assessment · 2026-09-30
From permission to completion
16,899 homes completed in metropolitan areas in August 2026.
These metropolitan counts narrow the earlier data gap; they do not tell us whether Canada’s national housing shortage is closing.
Source check · 2026-09-30 — The matching August 2026 geography and intended-market workbooks, published September 27, are now qualified. Starts and completions reconcile across all 42 area rows and the issuer total; Ottawa and Gatineau are separate rows. June and July editions remain below. Geography publication · Intended-market publication.
Four separate observations, not the same homes moving through a funnel. Permits cover Canada; the other three measures below cover CMHC’s metropolitan-area tables. All are unadjusted dwelling counts.
02 · Started
15,729August 2026
Metropolitan areas · construction began during the month. This is a flow.
Source and definition ↓03 · Under construction
360,554End of August 2026
Metropolitan areas · unfinished units at month end. This is a stock, not a monthly flow.
Source and definition ↓04 · Completed
16,899August 2026
Metropolitan areas · gross completions during the month. Not net of demolitions or conversions.
Source and definition ↓A completion is a construction milestone, not proof of occupancy; CMHC can count a unit with up to 10% of work unfinished. These observations do not measure cancellations or a permit-to-completion success rate.
What kind of homes were completed?
Selected metropolitan areas, August 2026. Each bar shows the mix within that area, not its share of Canada. Rental is the intended market; it does not establish affordability or who moved in.
HomeownershipRentalCondoCo-opUnclassified
Halifax776Homeownership: 201 · Rental: 575 · Condo: 0 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0
Montréal2,070Homeownership: 199 · Rental: 1,187 · Condo: 630 · Co-op: 54 · Unclassified: 0
Toronto2,362Homeownership: 599 · Rental: 115 · Condo: 1,648 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0
Calgary1,715Homeownership: 724 · Rental: 820 · Condo: 171 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0
Edmonton1,532Homeownership: 740 · Rental: 790 · Condo: 2 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0
Vancouver1,332Homeownership: 251 · Rental: 626 · Condo: 455 · Co-op: 0 · Unclassified: 0
Read the metropolitan totals and earlier editions
| Month | Starts | Under construction at month end | Completions |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | 18,299 | 364,508 | 17,588 |
| July 2026 | 16,374 | 362,059 | 18,797 |
| August 2026 | 15,729 | 360,554 | 16,899 |
Each edition is retained separately. These unadjusted monthly observations do not establish a trend or a cancellation rate.
What the national benchmarks mean
These are separate national models with different measures and horizons. CMHC’s September 2026 range is annual housing starts to 2036; the retained 2025 comparisons use completions. The monthly metropolitan counts above cannot establish national progress against these paths.
- CMHC (2025-06): 478,000 net completions per year. Restore housing affordability to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels by 2035, on a rolling 10-year horizon Historical model. Source · Checked 2026-07-07.
- CMHC (2026-09): 417,000–469,000 starts per year. Restore 2019 housing affordability by 2036 Source · Checked 2026-09-14.
- PBO (2025-08): 290,000 net completions per year. Return the total vacancy rate to its 2000-2019 historical average (6.4%) by 2035, while absorbing suppressed household formation (714,000 households projected by 2035) Source · Checked 2026-07-08.
What remains missing—and what changed
Before this update, Countability’s three Statistics Canada completion series ended in 2022. They still do. The preserved direct CMHC Excel files provide reproducible metropolitan counts for the months shown above.
The broader provincial totals include smaller-centre observations despite notes saying completions are collected only in metropolitan areas plus Charlottetown. We use the explicitly labelled metropolitan tables and leave that wider coverage conflict unresolved. The 2023 geography change prevents a simple splice onto the older record.
National net additions, matching conversions and demolitions, cancellations, and linked permit-to-occupancy cohorts remain unavailable on a verified comparable basis in this reading.
Sources, dates and exact observations
Permits: Statistics Canada, table 34-10-0292-01; August 2026, Canada, new dwellings, unadjusted. Permits follow Statistics Canada’s release schedule; starts and completions follow CMHC’s.
Construction stages workbook, June 2026 · Published 2026-07-30. Archived copy SHA-256: c83f300be909ae7aa94a2e6c33486dc4e38a141e1f3a609d4ea403cbea9a4d0d
June 2026 metropolitan totals: starts: Table A4_1!F50; under construction: Table A5_1!F50; completions: Table A4_1!K50. Counts are read from those cells; category and geography sums are checked separately.
Construction stages workbook, July 2026 · Published 2026-08-25. Archived copy SHA-256: 79354815f627c24dd246d90c91f7cc7151f089f1964e39cb3704592a55779012
Intended market workbook, July 2026 · Published 2026-08-25. Archived copy SHA-256: e0d01da6380737d3b8ea981e7deaa344de45ebd8bea4e89a84f401b22d1061be
July 2026 metropolitan totals: starts: Table A4_1!F50; under construction: Table A5_1!F50; completions: Table A4_1!K50. Counts are read from those cells; category and geography sums are checked separately.
Construction stages workbook, August 2026 · Published 2026-09-27. Archived copy SHA-256: 5c261613b14997680467cd6894868aa57b368eb65dd35f8bc705fa718c5065e8
Intended market workbook, August 2026 · Published 2026-09-27. Archived copy SHA-256: 90b2f5e6edc6a5ee1cfec1abc6fa19060855799c7da6989e0a48ed5d7c64bf9e
August 2026 metropolitan totals: starts: Table A4_1!F50; under construction: Table A5_1!F50; completions: Table A4_1!K50. Counts are read from those cells; category and geography sums are checked separately.
Halifax intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C17; Rental: Table F5-4!D17; Condo: Table F5-4!E17; Co-op: Table F5-4!F17; Not Available: Table F5-4!G17; Total: Table F5-4!H17.
Montréal intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C26; Rental: Table F5-4!D26; Condo: Table F5-4!E26; Co-op: Table F5-4!F26; Not Available: Table F5-4!G26; Total: Table F5-4!H26.
Toronto intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C42; Rental: Table F5-4!D42; Condo: Table F5-4!E42; Co-op: Table F5-4!F42; Not Available: Table F5-4!G42; Total: Table F5-4!H42.
Calgary intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C10; Rental: Table F5-4!D10; Condo: Table F5-4!E10; Co-op: Table F5-4!F10; Not Available: Table F5-4!G10; Total: Table F5-4!H10.
Edmonton intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C13; Rental: Table F5-4!D13; Condo: Table F5-4!E13; Co-op: Table F5-4!F13; Not Available: Table F5-4!G13; Total: Table F5-4!H13.
Vancouver intended-market observations: Homeownership: Table F5-4!C44; Rental: Table F5-4!D44; Condo: Table F5-4!E44; Co-op: Table F5-4!F44; Not Available: Table F5-4!G44; Total: Table F5-4!H44.
Tabular observations — Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Starts, Completions and Under Construction; Starts and Completions by Intended Market, June 2026, July 2026, August 2026. This information is reproduced and distributed on an “as is” basis with the permission of CMHC.
Charts and comparisons — Adapted from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Starts and Completions Survey tables, June 2026, July 2026, August 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation of this product.
Separate permit reading · October 15, 2026. This is the held August authorization count, not a starts or completions update.
August 2026 dwelling permits
Assessed 15 October 2026 · Released 14 October 2026
August permits authorized 24,705 new dwelling units, 13.5% more than August 2025 on the unadjusted count. July was revised from 24,022 to 23,470, a reduction of 552 units.
The same-month comparison describes residential construction intentions. It does not measure how many authorized dwellings started, finished or became occupied.
Limit: August is preliminary and subject to revision. These are unadjusted new-dwelling counts, distinct from seasonally adjusted permit values in dollars. Month-to-month movement is not interpreted as seasonally controlled momentum. Permits do not establish construction or occupancy, and this update does not refresh the separate starts, completions or investment series.
Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 · October 14 issuer release · Dated reading and next evidence →
A guide to the numbers · Worked example: July 2026
What housing delivery measures
A permit gives permission. A start marks construction beginning. A completion marks construction finishing. Each answers a different question.
Starts and completions count different events
More homes finished than started in CMHC’s metropolitan-area tables in July 2026. The two counts cover the same month and geography, but they need not follow the same homes.
Construction began
16,374Dwelling units started during July 2026.
Construction finished
18,797Dwelling units completed during July 2026. These homes may have started in earlier months or years.
362,059 dwelling units were still under construction at month end.
Seasonal patterns have not been removed from these counts. One month does not establish a trend in construction activity.
Read this as three observations. Dividing these completions by these starts does not give a completion rate. That would require following the same set of homes from start to finish.
Why can’t we add the stages together?
A home can be counted as a start and remain under construction in the same month. Adding those figures would count it twice. Permits are different again: they authorize work, but the work may begin later or may never begin.
Our current record’s permits cover Canada; its CMHC construction figures cover metropolitan areas. Check the date and geography printed beside each figure before comparing them.
Does “completed” mean someone has moved in?
No. CMHC measures a construction milestone, not occupancy. Under some circumstances, it can count a building as completed with up to 10% of the proposed work remaining. The intended market, such as rental or condominium, also does not tell us who moved in or what they can afford.
Does this show whether the shortage is closing?
These are gross completions. A national net-additions figure also needs a matching account of homes lost and changes from conversions. Our metropolitan counts do not supply that national balance.
CMHC and the Parliamentary Budget Officer publish different national modelled paths. Each has its own assumptions and target. A monthly metropolitan gross count cannot establish progress against either national net-additions path.
Try it: read a housing headline
Allow five minutes. A headline says, “More homes were completed than started in July, so builders cleared the backlog.” Use the three observations above to explain which part is directly supported and which part needs more evidence.
Then name two things you would check before comparing completions with a national housing target.
Compare your answer
Completions exceeded starts in this metropolitan record. To assess the change in unfinished homes, compare matched month-end stock observations. CMHC also adjusts that stock when work stops or the number of units in a project changes; the starts and completions alone do not supply the full account. These counts also do not measure construction speed or which homes finished.
For the target comparison, check geography, time period, seasonal adjustment and gross versus net additions. National coverage and a matching account of losses and conversions are missing here.
Return to the current housing reading ↑ · Link to this explainer
Sources and responsibility
Worked example: July 2026. CMHC construction tables and definitions, published 2026-08-25. Starts: Table A4_1!F50; completions: Table A4_1!K50; under construction: Table A5_1!F50. The workbook’s explanatory notes define the measures. Read the retained source editions and national benchmark context.
Adapted from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Starts, Completions and Under Construction, July 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation of this product.
Countability is responsible for this explanation and its use of the source. The figures come from CMHC; the teaching exercise is Countability’s. Figures are reproduced from Countability’s retained CMHC record. This is not a claim of review or endorsement by CMHC or an external housing specialist. About Countability and contact.
Apartment completions: what the bedroom record can support
Bedroom counts describe the size mix of new apartments. They do not establish affordability, floor area, accessibility or suitability for a particular household.
A national share is not yet defensible
In CMHC’s Q2 2026 workbook, the national bedroom counts do not add up to the published completion totals. The English and French editions agree on these cells. We therefore withhold a national bedroom share rather than invent a reconciliation.
| Market | Sum of bedrooms | Published total | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rental | 28,392 | 26,652 | +1,740 |
| Condominium | 11,784 | 10,140 | +1,644 |
Six places pass both market checks
The comparisons below include every place where the rental and condominium completion rows both have numeric bedroom cells that sum exactly to a positive total. Five are metropolitan areas; Manitoba is a separate provincial view covering centres of 10,000 or more. These places are a source-qualified subset, not a representative sample. Provincial and metropolitan counts overlap and must not be added together.
On narrow screens, scroll the chart or table sideways to read all values.
Some totals are very small: a share of 100% can describe only a handful of apartments. Counts are shown alongside the shares; these figures cannot establish the supply available to a typical family.
| Place | Coverage | Market | Studio | 1 bed | 2 beds | 3 beds | 4+ beds | Total | 2+ share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manitoba | 10,000+ centres | Rental | 0 | 322 | 529 | 107 | 0 | 958 | 66.4% |
| Manitoba | 10,000+ centres | Condominium | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 100.0% |
| Abbotsford - Mission | CMA | Rental | 7 | 50 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 97 | 41.2% |
| Abbotsford - Mission | CMA | Condominium | 0 | 0 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 100.0% |
| Hamilton | CMA | Rental | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 100.0% |
| Hamilton | CMA | Condominium | 3 | 195 | 218 | 0 | 0 | 416 | 52.4% |
| Kamloops | CMA | Rental | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 66.7% |
| Kamloops | CMA | Condominium | 20 | 88 | 106 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 49.5% |
| Windsor | CMA | Rental | 0 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 90.4% |
| Windsor | CMA | Condominium | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 100.0% |
| Winnipeg | CMA | Rental | 0 | 322 | 439 | 67 | 0 | 828 | 61.1% |
| Winnipeg | CMA | Condominium | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 100.0% |
Source cells for the published comparisons
| Place | Market | Source cells |
|---|---|---|
| Canada(10,000+) | Rental | Rental Completions!B20, Rental Completions!C20, Rental Completions!D20, Rental Completions!E20, Rental Completions!F20, Rental Completions!G20 |
| Canada(10,000+) | Condominium | Condo Completions!B20, Condo Completions!C20, Condo Completions!D20, Condo Completions!E20, Condo Completions!F20, Condo Completions!G20 |
| Manitoba | Rental | Rental Completions!B13, Rental Completions!C13, Rental Completions!D13, Rental Completions!E13, Rental Completions!F13, Rental Completions!G13 |
| Manitoba | Condominium | Condo Completions!B13, Condo Completions!C13, Condo Completions!D13, Condo Completions!E13, Condo Completions!F13, Condo Completions!G13 |
| Abbotsford - Mission | Rental | Rental Completions!B23, Rental Completions!C23, Rental Completions!D23, Rental Completions!E23, Rental Completions!F23, Rental Completions!G23 |
| Abbotsford - Mission | Condominium | Condo Completions!B23, Condo Completions!C23, Condo Completions!D23, Condo Completions!E23, Condo Completions!F23, Condo Completions!G23 |
| Hamilton | Rental | Rental Completions!B35, Rental Completions!C35, Rental Completions!D35, Rental Completions!E35, Rental Completions!F35, Rental Completions!G35 |
| Hamilton | Condominium | Condo Completions!B35, Condo Completions!C35, Condo Completions!D35, Condo Completions!E35, Condo Completions!F35, Condo Completions!G35 |
| Kamloops | Rental | Rental Completions!B36, Rental Completions!C36, Rental Completions!D36, Rental Completions!E36, Rental Completions!F36, Rental Completions!G36 |
| Kamloops | Condominium | Condo Completions!B36, Condo Completions!C36, Condo Completions!D36, Condo Completions!E36, Condo Completions!F36, Condo Completions!G36 |
| Windsor | Rental | Rental Completions!B63, Rental Completions!C63, Rental Completions!D63, Rental Completions!E63, Rental Completions!F63, Rental Completions!G63 |
| Windsor | Condominium | Condo Completions!B63, Condo Completions!C63, Condo Completions!D63, Condo Completions!E63, Condo Completions!F63, Condo Completions!G63 |
| Winnipeg | Rental | Rental Completions!B64, Rental Completions!C64, Rental Completions!D64, Rental Completions!E64, Rental Completions!F64, Rental Completions!G64 |
| Winnipeg | Condominium | Condo Completions!B64, Condo Completions!C64, Condo Completions!D64, Condo Completions!E64, Condo Completions!F64, Condo Completions!G64 |
Method and limits
Share = (two-bedroom + three-bedroom + four-or-more-bedroom completions) ÷ the published total × 100. Every component and the denominator must be numeric, and all five bedroom categories must reconcile to the total. Counts are apartments completed during Q2 2026, with rental and condominium intended markets kept separate; accessory units are excluded. A dash means either unavailable data or no activity in this workbook, so it is never converted to zero. Suppression is retained. No earlier matching quarter was qualified in this acquisition, so this section makes no claim about change over time.
Of the 112 rental and condominium completion rows, 33 reconcile individually; only 12 belong to a place where both markets qualify. Rows failing the check, or containing unavailable or suppressed cells, are excluded from shares. This is a publication limit, not proof that the source’s underlying dwellings are misclassified.
Adapted from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Apartment Starts and Completions by Bedroom Type, Q2 2026, published July 29, 2026; accessed October 5, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation of this product. Source cells refer to the Rental Completions and Condo Completions sheets.
What the record shows
INFERRED
Population growth per housing start: 0.8 (was 1.8 a year earlier)
In the four quarters to 2026 Q3, Canada added 189,425 residents while housing starts averaged 252,329 units (annualized). A ratio near or below average household size (~2.5 persons per dwelling) suggests supply keeping pace with population-driven demand; the ratio moved from 1.8 to 0.8. Inference assumes starts translate into completions with a lag and ignores household-formation shifts and non-permanent housing demand.
Technical details
Method: Ratio = (pop[t] − pop[t−4q]) ÷ mean(housing starts SAAR, trailing 12 months). Interpretation benchmarked against ~2.5 persons/household (StatsCan census average).
INFERRED
CMHC's 2025-06 housing benchmark uses a different measure from starts
Canada started 248,256 homes in the 4 quarters to 2026 Q3 (actual, all areas). CMHC's 2025-06 modelled benchmark — restore housing affordability to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels by 2035, on a rolling 10-year horizon — implies ~478,000 net completions per year over 2025-2035. The comparison crosses unit bases: the benchmark is completions-denominated, but official all-areas WDS completions end in 2022 (latest annual figure: 219,942 in 2022). Direct CMHC metropolitan completion counts are now held, but they are gross monthly units on narrower geography, not this national net-additions basis. Current starts are shown as context, not compliance. The benchmark is a model with stated assumptions, not an observation. Their cumulative additional-unit gaps are 2.60 million (CMHC) and 690,000 (PBO), about 3.8 times apart; these models use different objectives and assumptions (see the housing baseline conflict). This comparison uses the superseded 2025 CMHC model; the current 2026 range uses annual starts through 2036 and is displayed separately.
Technical details
Method: Trailing 4-quarter sum of actual housing starts ÷ CMHC benchmark annual rate × 100. Benchmark from cmhc-supply-gap-2025 (2025-06), taken as published; unit-basis mismatch stated.
INFERRED
PBO's 2025-08 housing benchmark uses a different measure from starts
Canada started 248,256 homes in the 4 quarters to 2026 Q3 (actual, all areas). PBO's 2025-08 modelled benchmark — return the total vacancy rate to its 2000-2019 historical average (6.4%) by 2035, while absorbing suppressed household formation (714,000 households projected by 2035) — implies ~290,000 net completions per year over 2025-2035. The comparison crosses unit bases: the benchmark is completions-denominated, but official all-areas WDS completions end in 2022 (latest annual figure: 219,942 in 2022). Direct CMHC metropolitan completion counts are now held, but they are gross monthly units on narrower geography, not this national net-additions basis. Current starts are shown as context, not compliance. The benchmark is a model with stated assumptions, not an observation. Their cumulative additional-unit gaps are 2.60 million (CMHC) and 690,000 (PBO), about 3.8 times apart; these models use different objectives and assumptions (see the housing baseline conflict).
Technical details
Method: Trailing 4-quarter sum of actual housing starts ÷ PBO benchmark annual rate × 100. Benchmark from pbo-housing-gap-2025 (2025-08), taken as published; unit-basis mismatch stated.
Institutional projections on file
CMHCvintage 2022-06Historical benchmark
Canada's Housing Supply Shortages: Estimating what is needed to solve Canada's housing affordability crisis by 2030 (with 2023 update)
Restore housing affordability to early-2000s levels by 2030
cumulative additional units above the baseline outlook 3,500,000.
Measure: additional units beyond projection.
Source: CMHC publication · accessed 2026-07-08
CMHCvintage 2025-06Historical benchmark
Canada's Housing Supply Shortages: Moving to a New Framework
Restore housing affordability to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels by 2035, on a rolling 10-year horizon
total annual requirement 478,000; cumulative additional units above the baseline outlook 2,600,000.
Measure: net completions.
Historical 2025 model, retained for its dated comparison. The current CMHC model uses annual starts through 2036; this older model uses net completions through 2035.
Source: CMHC publication · accessed 2026-07-07
PBOvintage 2025-08Current model
Household Formation and the Housing Stock: Estimating the Housing Gap in 2035 (RP-2526-007-S)
Return the total vacancy rate to its 2000-2019 historical average (6.4%) by 2035, while absorbing suppressed household formation (714,000 households projected by 2035)
total annual requirement 290,000; cumulative additional units above the baseline outlook 690,000.
Measure: net completions.
This model restores the historical total vacancy rate; it is not an affordability-restoration target.
Net completions include conversions and subtract demolitions. Housing starts are a different measure, so the starts comparison is context only, not progress against this requirement.
Source: PBO publication · accessed 2026-07-08
CMHCvintage 2026-09Current model
Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report — annual housing starts required
Restore 2019 housing affordability by 2036
total annual requirement 417,000–469,000.
Measure: starts.
Modelled requirement, not observed construction or a government target.
A different unit basis and horizon from the retained 2025 net-completions benchmark; do not subtract the vintages or describe the difference as progress.
Published rounded figures do not support an exact low-end supply-gap subtraction.
Annual starts, not net completions; the range reflects model assumptions, not a statistical confidence interval.
Source: CMHC publication · accessed 2026-09-14
Where institutions disagree
Institutions disagreemagnitude 3.8x
How many additional homes does Canada need by 2035?
CMHC: 2,600,000 additional units by 2035
Units needed to restore housing affordability to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels by 2035; implies ~478,000 net completions per year (range 430,000-480,000) → source
PBO: 690,000 additional units by 2035
Units needed to return the total vacancy rate to its 2000-2019 average (6.4%) by 2035 and absorb suppressed household formation; implies ~290,000 completions per year → source
Why they differ: Different target definitions, not different data: CMHC models the supply needed to restore a chosen affordability level; PBO models the supply needed to normalize vacancy rates and absorb suppressed households. PBO's report states that CMHC's target would imply a ~13% total vacancy rate, which PBO characterizes as abnormally high.
Countability’s position: None. Actual construction is tracked against both paths, each in its own units, with each issuer's definition displayed.
What cannot yet be known
Evidence gap
How many homes is Canada actually completing right now?
What is missing: Narrowed September 8, 2026: a documented CMHC Excel route now supplies reproducible June and July 2026 metropolitan starts, under-construction stocks and gross completions, with July intended-market detail. The three held Statistics Canada completion mirrors still end in 2022. The broader CMHC provincial totals include smaller-centre values despite conflicting survey-coverage notes, so this reading uses the explicitly labelled metropolitan tables. A current, verified all-areas completion series and national net-additions measure remain outside the comparable evidence held here. Update September 30, 2026: the matching August workbooks extend the same metropolitan record, including intended-market detail; all area totals reconcile. The national coverage and net-additions limits remain.
Consequence: The machine-readable-route branch of the original closing criterion is met for metropolitan counts. This is a narrowing, not restoration of all-areas coverage or a national benchmark-compliance measure. Gross monthly completions on metropolitan geography cannot be divided by either institution’s national annual net-additions benchmark. Cancellation and occupancy outcomes remain separate gaps.
What would close it: Restoration of the post-2022 completions series in Statistics Canada's public data tables, or confirmation of a stable, documented, machine-readable CMHC source (e.g., a downloadable dataset or API distinct from the HMIP interactive portal) that Countability could collect automatically.
Evidence gap
How many authorized or started homes are cancelled before completion?
What is missing: No continuously updated machine-readable cancellation count or rate is held on a verified comparable basis for this reading. The qualified CMHC construction tables report starts, stocks and completions; stock adjustments for cessation or unit-count changes do not isolate cancellations. The separately unfetched Market Absorption Survey concerns absorption after completion, not pre-completion cancellation; it is not activated by this source admission.
Consequence: The Housing Delivery module now observes separate construction stages. It still cannot measure a cancellation rate, a linked permit-to-completion conversion rate or occupancy. Missing cancellations are never imputed as zero; broader source discovery remains open under the registered criterion.
What would close it: CMHC, a provincial regulator, or a municipal permitting authority publishing a continuously updated, machine-readable cancellation count or rate for authorized or started residential units.
Evidence gap
How fast are new households forming right now?
What is missing: No official sub-annual household-formation series exists for Canada. The official household count (StatsCan 17-10-0159) is annual (July 1 reference, published each November, based on the 2021 Census adjusted for undercoverage plus the T1 Family File and postcensal estimates).
Consequence: Quarterly or monthly comparisons of housing supply against 'household formation' necessarily use modelled formation (e.g., PBO's projections) or population-based proxies. Countability publishes population-per-completion (observed) quarterly and completions-per-formation (observed) annually, and labels any sub-annual formation figure as modelled.
What would close it: A StatsCan sub-annual household estimate or administrative household series.
Evidence gap
Is Canada building family-sized homes?
What is missing: Bedroom-count detail for new supply exists only in CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal, which has no machine-readable public API. The StatsCan mirror (34-10-0148) provides dwelling type (single/semi/row/apartment) but not bedroom counts.
Consequence: Countability uses dwelling-type composition (ground-oriented vs apartment) as a stated proxy for family-sized supply.
What would close it: CMHC publishing bedroom-level starts/completions as open data.
What has since been established
Evidence gapResolved 8 July 2026
Is PBO's ~290,000-per-year requirement stated net or gross of demolitions and conversions?
What is missing: The PBO publication page states the requirement as 'total units completed annually'; whether this is net of stock losses was unconfirmed pending review of the full report.
Consequence: Prior to resolution, TARGET/benchmark comparisons against the PBO path used gross completions with a caveat displayed.
Resolved 8 July 2026: PBO's publication page explicitly defines 'net housing completions' as completions plus conversions less demolitions, and models housing stock as Housing stock(t) = Housing stock(t-1) + Completions(t) + Conversions(t) - Demolitions(t). The ~290,000/yr figure is on this net basis. This record's own benchmark entry for the PBO housing gap was updated accordingly: its unit basis now reads net completions, and its pending-verification flag was cleared. Caveat retained: PBO's and CMHC's respective 'net completions' concepts are not confirmed to be composed identically (e.g., treatment of conversions) and should not be silently equated.
What would have closed it: Verification against the full PBO report (RP-2526-007-S).
What would change the record
- Restoration of the post-2022 completions series in Statistics Canada's public data tables, or confirmation of a stable, documented, machine-readable CMHC source (e.g., a downloadable dataset or API distinct from the HMIP interactive portal) that Countability could collect automatically.
- CMHC, a provincial regulator, or a municipal permitting authority publishing a continuously updated, machine-readable cancellation count or rate for authorized or started residential units.
- A StatsCan sub-annual household estimate or administrative household series.
- CMHC publishing bedroom-level starts/completions as open data.
- Verification against the full PBO report (RP-2526-007-S).
- CMHC's 2022-06 position has already been superseded by its 2025-06 vintage.
- CMHC's 2025-06 position has already been superseded by its 2026-09 vintage.
- Population growth and dwelling supply — reviewed by 2027-07-09.
Investigation
Deep Dive · 7 min read
Whose benchmark? The disagreement over how much housing Canada needs
Two institutions size the housing shortfall differently, construction proceeds at a measured pace against both paths, and part of the record has simply stopped updating.
The maintained reading
Monitor
Canadian Capacity Monitor
Is Canada's institutional, physical, fiscal, and labour capacity keeping pace with the demands being placed upon it?
This page brings together the evidence, institutional disagreements and gaps behind a continuing question. Where the record supports an answer, it appears with its date, sources, limits, Brief and Receipt. New evidence can change that answer.
Related on this site
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Work with Countability