Hourly pay
+33.9%Average wage in current dollars · January 2019 to September 2026
ChangedEvidence through 2026-10-19
Next: October 2026 CPI is scheduled for November 16 in the September issuer release. The wage comparison advances only when wages and CPI cover the same month.
September inflation rose to 3.1%. Groceries slowed to 1.7%; rent held at 2.8%. Wage growth of 2.3% remained below prices.
The answer
Canada's all-items Consumer Price Index rose 3.1% over the year to September 2026, after 3.0% in August. The unadjusted index increased 0.1% during September.
Energy inflation accelerated from 15.4% to 19.0%, including a 27.8% rise in gasoline prices. Grocery inflation slowed to 1.7% from 2.8%. Slower growth is not a fall in prices: the grocery index stood 33.0% above September 2020. These component rates are not weighted contributions to the headline.
Rent inflation held at 2.8%, below headline inflation for a third month. Shelter overall rose 1.8%. CPI rent covers occupied rental housing, including existing tenancies, rather than newly advertised leases alone. Three months do not establish a lasting turn.
The published core rates were 1.8% for CPI-trim, 1.9% for CPI-median and 2.4% for CPI-common. All-items excluding food and energy rose 2.1%. These measures have different definitions and remain separate.
Average hourly wages rose 2.3% over the same year. The difference between the rounded wage and CPI growth rates was −0.8 percentage points, compared with −1.0 in August. The separate compounded comparison of wage and price levels gives −0.7% over the year. Average wages can change with the mix of employees; neither measure describes every worker or household.
The year-earlier base matters: in September 2025, energy and gasoline indexes were 2.6% and 4.1% below their September 2024 levels respectively. Annual growth reflects both that denominator and current prices; no separate base-effect contribution is estimated.
What this means for the decision
Read the higher headline alongside slower grocery inflation and unchanged rent inflation. Price levels, annual inflation rates and the matched-month wage comparison answer different questions; none identifies the experience of a particular household.
The key uncertainty
Component growth rates are not contributions without basket weights. Core measures are revisable; wage averages are unadjusted and composition-sensitive. Three rent observations below the headline do not establish a lasting trend.
What would settle it
October 2026 CPI is scheduled for November 16 in the September issuer release. The wage comparison advances only when wages and CPI cover the same month.
One number stands in for the cost of living in almost every public argument about it: in wage bargaining, in arguments about indexation, in the case for and against the next interest-rate decision. That number is an average over a basket whose parts move at very different speeds. A reader who has only the average cannot tell whether price pressure is broad or narrow, whether it is coming from something volatile that tends to unwind or from something that tends to persist, or whether their own pay is keeping up with it. The decomposition that answers those questions is published by the same agency, on the same day, on the same basis as the headline — it is simply less often read.
Evidence reviewed through 2026-10-19 · 3 cited sources · 0 member Resolutions · 8 chapters
Refreshed with each monthly Consumer Price Index release. October CPI is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Wages arrive separately; comparisons use the latest common month.
Earlier readings
These answers are preserved as originally written. Their dates and statements about missing or upcoming evidence belong to that earlier reading.
Reading through 2026-09-14 — August headline inflation stayed at 3.0%. Rent rose 2.8%, still below headline inflation; average hourly wages rose 2.0%, widening the wage–price gap to −1.0 percentage point.
Canada's all-items Consumer Price Index rose 3.0% over the year to August 2026, the same rounded rate as July. The unadjusted index fell 0.1% during August, after rising 0.5% in July. A steady annual rate does not mean every component stayed steady.
The eight major components ranged from +0.4% for household operations, furnishings and equipment to +7.5% for transportation. Between them were recreation, education and reading (+5.6%), food (+2.8%), health and personal care (+2.2%), alcoholic beverages, tobacco and cannabis (+1.7%), shelter (+1.5%), and clothing and footwear (+1.2%). These are each component's own growth rates, not contributions to the headline; this record holds no basket weights.
Rent inflation rose from 2.5% in July to 2.8% in August. It remained below headline inflation for a second month, but the gap narrowed from −0.5 to −0.2 percentage points. This is a second observation below the headline, not proof of a lasting turn. Owned accommodation rose 0.5%; mortgage interest cost fell 0.2% and homeowners' replacement cost fell 1.9%. CPI rent covers occupied rental housing, not only newly advertised leases.
The three published core rates remain below the headline: CPI-trim 1.9%, CPI-median 2.0% and CPI-common 2.6%. All-items excluding food and energy rose 2.1%; excluding mortgage interest cost rose 3.2%. These measures use different definitions and should not be blended into one underlying rate.
Energy inflation eased from 16.6% to 15.4%, and gasoline from 25.7% to 22.8%. These remain large year-over-year increases; neither series' growth rate tells us its weighted contribution to the headline.
Average hourly wage growth slowed from 2.8% in July to 2.0% in August. Subtracting the rounded headline CPI rate gives −1.0 percentage point, compared with −0.2 in July. This gap compares two annual rates; it is not a real-wage index or an estimate for every household.
The energy and gasoline comparisons still have a depressed base: their August 2025 indexes were down 8.3% and 12.7% respectively from a year earlier. An annual rate reflects that denominator as well as the current price; no separate base-effect contribution is estimated.
Reading through 2026-08-18 — All-items prices rose 3.0% over the year to July 2026. Transportation ran fastest at 7.8%, household operations slowest at 0.4%, and all three Bank of Canada core measures — 1.9%, 2.0% and 2.7% — sit below the headline.
Statistics Canada's all-items Consumer Price Index for Canada rose 3.0% over the twelve months to July 2026, and 0.5% over the month, against 2.8% in June and 3.2% in May. That is the average. Underneath it, the eight major components of the basket moved at rates ranging from +0.4% to +7.8% over the same year.
Ranked by their own rate of change: transportation +7.8%, recreation, education and reading +4.4%, food +3.0%, clothing and footwear +2.4%, health and personal care +2.3%, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and recreational cannabis +2.0%, shelter +1.3%, and household operations, furnishings and equipment +0.4%. This is a ranking by speed, not a contribution to the headline. Countability does not hold the basket weights, so no component here can be restated as a share of the 3.0%, and none is.
Shelter was the second slowest of the eight, at +1.3%. Rent rose 2.5%, its lowest reading since November 2021 and 0.5 percentage points below the all-items rate: the first month since January 2023 in which rent has not risen faster than prices generally. The owned side of shelter is slower still — owned accommodation +0.4%, mortgage interest cost −0.3%, homeowners' replacement cost −2.1%. CPI rent prices the occupied rental stock, which is a different population from advertised asking rents, and the two can move apart.
The Bank of Canada's three core measures, published by Statistics Canada for the same month, all sit below the headline: CPI-trim 1.9%, CPI-median 2.0%, CPI-common 2.7%. All-items excluding food and energy reads 1.9%. Four different ways of setting the volatile edge of the basket aside therefore land between 1.9% and 2.7%, while the headline reads 3.0% — a spread of as much as 1.1 percentage points depending on which measure a reader treats as the underlying rate. All-items excluding mortgage interest cost, by contrast, reads 3.2%.
The volatile edge is where the difference sits. Energy prices rose 16.6% over the year and gasoline 25.7% — the two fastest-moving of the twenty-two members of this table the record holds, faster than in June (14.3% and 20.5%) but still short of May (22.2% and 33.2%). Both are measured against a July 2025 base that was itself well down: gasoline fell 16.1% and energy 10.4% over the year to July 2025. A re-acceleration in this pair therefore says as much about where prices stood a year ago as about anything new this month.
Against pay, the arithmetic is negative. The average hourly wage rose 2.8% over the same year, 0.2 percentage points less than all-items prices — the same gap as in May, after June briefly ran the other way at +0.5 points. This is the difference of two published rates in percentage points, not a real-wage index; the wage series is unadjusted and in current dollars.
Chapter 1§
The answer
The headline rate for the latest month, the month before it and the month before that, set beside the range the eight major components of the basket actually moved over the same year — stated once, at the top, with the boundary that governs every component figure on this page.
Chapter 2§
Where the rate came from
The eight major components ranked by their own rate of change, fastest to slowest. Every top-level child of the all-items basket appears, so this is a decomposition rather than a selection — and it is a ranking by speed, never a statement of how much of the headline any component supplied.
| Major component | % over the year to September 2026 | Rank by rate |
|---|---|---|
| Transportation | +8.4% | 1 of 8 |
| Recreation, education and reading | +4.6% | 2 of 8 |
| Food | +2.2% | 3 of 8 |
| Shelter | +1.8% | 4 of 8 |
| Clothing and footwear | +1.7% | 5 of 8 |
| Health and personal care | +1.7% | 6 of 8 |
| Alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and recreational cannabis | +1.6% | 7 of 8 |
| Household operations, furnishings and equipment | +0.4% | 8 of 8 |
Every top-level child of the all-items basket appears here, so this is a decomposition of the whole rather than a selection from it. The rank column orders these components against each other by speed. It is not a contribution to the headline, and no figure in this table can be turned into one: that would require the basket weights, which this record does not hold.
Chapter 3§
Shelter, and the rent line inside it
Compare shelter and its components at their own rates. Rent inflation is unchanged from August and below headline inflation. CPI rent and asking rent cover different populations.
| Shelter component | % over the year to September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Shelter | +1.8% |
| Rented accommodation | +2.7% |
| Rent | +2.8% |
| Owned accommodation | +0.6% |
| Mortgage interest cost | -0.2% |
| Homeowners' replacement cost | -1.9% |
| Rent less all-items, in percentage points | -0.3 pp |
Rent and rented accommodation, owned accommodation, mortgage interest cost and homeowners’ replacement cost are all components of shelter; mortgage interest cost and homeowners’ replacement cost sit inside owned accommodation. They are shown at their own rates and are never summed into shelter. The final row is the difference of two already-rounded rates, in percentage points. The last month before September 2026 in which rent did not rise faster than all-items prices was August 2026 (-0.2 pp). The last month at or below the current rent rate was August 2026 (+2.8%). CPI rent prices the occupied rental stock, including sitting tenancies; advertised asking rents price new lettings only, and the two populations are not the same.
Chapter 4§
The headline and the underlying rate
Compare the headline, the published core measures and the excluding-style cuts on the same monthly reference period. Their different definitions remain visible; revisable core measures are cited as published.
| Measure | September 2026 | August 2026 | July 2026 | How this record obtains it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-items CPI (the headline) | +3.1% | +3.0% | +3.0% | Derived here from the published index |
| CPI-trim | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | Statistics Canada's own published rate, cited as published |
| CPI-median | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | Statistics Canada's own published rate, cited as published |
| CPI-common | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | Statistics Canada's own published rate, cited as published |
| All-items excluding food and energy | +2.1% | +2.1% | +1.9% | Derived here from the published index |
| All-items excluding mortgage interest cost | +3.2% | +3.2% | +3.2% | Derived here from the published index |
CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common are Statistics Canada's published year-over-year rates under Bank of Canada definitions, restated here as published and never recomputed for display. All three rest on seasonally adjusted inputs, and CPI-common on a factor model re-estimated over all available history, so the issuer publishes them as subject to revision. Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 18-10-0256-01, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.
Chapter 5§
The volatile edge
Compare energy and gasoline growth with the two preceding months. Gasoline is inside energy; the rows are not independent and are never added. Growth rates alone do not establish contributions to headline inflation.
| Analytical cut | September 2026 | August 2026 | July 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +19.0% | +15.4% | +16.6% |
| Gasoline | +27.8% | +22.8% | +25.7% |
Gasoline sits inside energy, so the two rows are not independent and are never added. A year-over-year rate is measured against the same month a year earlier: when that base month was itself well down, a large rate is partly a statement about the base. The table keeps each month separate; it does not establish a trend or a contribution to headline inflation.
Chapter 6§
Against pay
Compare the average hourly wage and all-items CPI over the same year. The difference of their rounded growth rates is stated in percentage points, separately from the compounded wage-and-price level comparison.
| Reading | % over the year to September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Average hourly wage, unadjusted, current dollars | +2.3% |
| All-items CPI | +3.1% |
| Wage less all-items, in percentage points | -0.8 pp |
A difference of two already-rounded published rates, in percentage points — never a ratio of levels and never a blended series. The two series first overlap on this convention in September 2007. The previous month read -1.0 pp. The last month before September 2026 in which the difference was negative was August 2026. This is not a real-wage index and not a measure of aggregate household purchasing power: the wage series is unadjusted, in current dollars, and not controlled for hours or composition.
Wages and prices · Through September 2026
Has hourly pay kept up with prices?
Canada · employees aged 15 and older · all industries, full- and part-time.
Average hourly pay, adjusted for consumer prices, was 5.2% above January 2019.
Different months of the year: this runs from January 2019 to September 2026. Seasonal patterns may affect the comparison; neither series is seasonally adjusted.
Over the year to September 2026, hourly pay changed by +2.3% and consumer prices by +3.1%. After adjusting for prices, the change was −0.7%. Comparing the same month a year apart reduces the seasonal mismatch.
This describes average employee hourly pay, not the experience of the same workers over time. Changing jobs, industries and the mix of full-time and part-time workers can move the average. It does not tell us whether households can afford more.
Consumer prices
+27.2%All-items CPI · January 2019 to September 2026
Pay adjusted for prices
+5.2%Exact wage-to-price ratio · January 2019 to September 2026
Two levels, one starting point
Both lines start at 100 in January 2019. A value of 120 means a 20% rise since that month. These are levels; inflation and wage growth describe how fast those levels change.
Average hourly payConsumer prices
Canada; monthly, not seasonally adjusted. January 2019 is a fixed starting point before the pandemic, not a seasonal adjustment. Choosing another base month changes the longer comparison. A rise in average pay can also reflect a change in who is employed.
Latest levels: average hourly wage $37.64; all-items CPI 170.0 (2002 = 100), September 2026. The wage figure is an average, not a median, and is before tax.
What changed since the previous month?
The annual price-adjusted change was −1.0% over the year to August 2026, compared with −0.7% over the year to September 2026. These are overlapping twelve-month comparisons, not one-month growth.
This level comparison was added on September 8, 2026. The existing wage-minus-inflation reading remains a difference in percentage points. This separate addition divides wage growth factors by price growth factors; the two methods must not be spliced.
Read the exact monthly observations
| Month | Hourly wage ($) | CPI (2002=100) | Wage index | Price index | Price-adjusted wage index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 37.64 | 170.00 | 133.85 | 127.25 | 105.19 |
| August 2026 | 37.02 | 169.80 | 131.65 | 127.10 | 103.58 |
| July 2026 | 37.17 | 169.90 | 132.18 | 127.17 | 103.94 |
| June 2026 | 37.20 | 169.00 | 132.29 | 126.50 | 104.58 |
| May 2026 | 37.24 | 169.60 | 132.43 | 126.95 | 104.32 |
| April 2026 | 37.77 | 168.00 | 134.32 | 125.75 | 106.81 |
| March 2026 | 37.73 | 167.40 | 134.17 | 125.30 | 107.08 |
| February 2026 | 37.56 | 165.90 | 133.57 | 124.18 | 107.56 |
| January 2026 | 37.17 | 165.00 | 132.18 | 123.50 | 107.03 |
| December 2025 | 37.06 | 165.00 | 131.79 | 123.50 | 106.71 |
| November 2025 | 37.00 | 165.40 | 131.58 | 123.80 | 106.28 |
| October 2025 | 37.06 | 165.30 | 131.79 | 123.73 | 106.52 |
| September 2025 | 36.78 | 164.90 | 130.80 | 123.43 | 105.97 |
| August 2025 | 36.31 | 164.80 | 129.13 | 123.35 | 104.68 |
| July 2025 | 36.16 | 164.90 | 128.59 | 123.43 | 104.18 |
| June 2025 | 36.01 | 164.40 | 128.06 | 123.05 | 104.07 |
| May 2025 | 36.14 | 164.30 | 128.52 | 122.98 | 104.51 |
| April 2025 | 36.13 | 163.40 | 128.49 | 122.31 | 105.05 |
| March 2025 | 36.05 | 163.50 | 128.20 | 122.38 | 104.76 |
| February 2025 | 36.14 | 163.00 | 128.52 | 122.01 | 105.34 |
| January 2025 | 35.99 | 161.30 | 127.99 | 120.73 | 106.01 |
| December 2024 | 35.83 | 161.20 | 127.42 | 120.66 | 105.60 |
| November 2024 | 35.73 | 161.80 | 127.06 | 121.11 | 104.92 |
| October 2024 | 35.79 | 161.80 | 127.28 | 121.11 | 105.09 |
| September 2024 | 35.61 | 161.10 | 126.64 | 120.58 | 105.02 |
| August 2024 | 35.19 | 161.80 | 125.14 | 121.11 | 103.33 |
| July 2024 | 34.99 | 162.10 | 124.43 | 121.33 | 102.55 |
| June 2024 | 34.91 | 161.40 | 124.15 | 120.81 | 102.76 |
| May 2024 | 34.94 | 161.50 | 124.25 | 120.88 | 102.79 |
| April 2024 | 34.93 | 160.60 | 124.22 | 120.21 | 103.33 |
| March 2024 | 34.81 | 159.80 | 123.79 | 119.61 | 103.49 |
| February 2024 | 34.82 | 158.80 | 123.83 | 118.86 | 104.18 |
| January 2024 | 34.76 | 158.30 | 123.61 | 118.49 | 104.33 |
| December 2023 | 34.46 | 158.30 | 122.55 | 118.49 | 103.42 |
| November 2023 | 34.29 | 158.80 | 121.94 | 118.86 | 102.59 |
| October 2023 | 34.10 | 158.60 | 121.27 | 118.71 | 102.15 |
| September 2023 | 34.03 | 158.50 | 121.02 | 118.64 | 102.01 |
| August 2023 | 33.50 | 158.70 | 119.13 | 118.79 | 100.29 |
| July 2023 | 33.25 | 158.10 | 118.24 | 118.34 | 99.92 |
| June 2023 | 33.13 | 157.20 | 117.82 | 117.66 | 100.13 |
| May 2023 | 33.26 | 157.00 | 118.28 | 117.51 | 100.65 |
| April 2023 | 33.37 | 156.40 | 118.67 | 117.07 | 101.37 |
| March 2023 | 33.13 | 155.30 | 117.82 | 116.24 | 101.35 |
| February 2023 | 33.17 | 154.50 | 117.96 | 115.64 | 102.00 |
| January 2023 | 33.03 | 153.90 | 117.46 | 115.19 | 101.97 |
| December 2022 | 32.68 | 153.10 | 116.22 | 114.60 | 101.41 |
| November 2022 | 32.72 | 154.00 | 116.36 | 115.27 | 100.94 |
| October 2022 | 32.53 | 153.80 | 115.68 | 115.12 | 100.49 |
| September 2022 | 32.39 | 152.70 | 115.18 | 114.30 | 100.78 |
| August 2022 | 31.93 | 152.60 | 113.55 | 114.22 | 99.41 |
| July 2022 | 31.66 | 153.10 | 112.59 | 114.60 | 98.25 |
| June 2022 | 31.80 | 152.90 | 113.09 | 114.45 | 98.81 |
| May 2022 | 31.65 | 151.90 | 112.55 | 113.70 | 98.99 |
| April 2022 | 31.74 | 149.80 | 112.87 | 112.13 | 100.67 |
| March 2022 | 31.45 | 148.90 | 111.84 | 111.45 | 100.35 |
| February 2022 | 31.48 | 146.80 | 111.95 | 109.88 | 101.88 |
| January 2022 | 31.62 | 145.30 | 112.45 | 108.76 | 103.39 |
| December 2021 | 31.20 | 144.00 | 110.95 | 107.78 | 102.94 |
| November 2021 | 30.95 | 144.20 | 110.06 | 107.93 | 101.97 |
| October 2021 | 30.88 | 143.90 | 109.82 | 107.71 | 101.95 |
| September 2021 | 30.88 | 142.90 | 109.82 | 106.96 | 102.67 |
| August 2021 | 30.45 | 142.60 | 108.29 | 106.74 | 101.45 |
| July 2021 | 30.36 | 142.30 | 107.97 | 106.51 | 101.36 |
| June 2021 | 30.31 | 141.40 | 107.79 | 105.84 | 101.84 |
| May 2021 | 30.55 | 141.00 | 108.64 | 105.54 | 102.94 |
| April 2021 | 30.74 | 140.30 | 109.32 | 105.01 | 104.10 |
| March 2021 | 30.49 | 139.60 | 108.43 | 104.49 | 103.77 |
| February 2021 | 30.64 | 138.90 | 108.96 | 103.97 | 104.80 |
| January 2021 | 30.75 | 138.20 | 109.35 | 103.44 | 105.71 |
| December 2020 | 30.20 | 137.40 | 107.40 | 102.84 | 104.43 |
| November 2020 | 30.14 | 137.70 | 107.18 | 103.07 | 103.99 |
| October 2020 | 30.26 | 137.50 | 107.61 | 102.92 | 104.56 |
| September 2020 | 30.06 | 136.90 | 106.90 | 102.47 | 104.32 |
| August 2020 | 29.88 | 137.00 | 106.26 | 102.54 | 103.62 |
| July 2020 | 29.96 | 137.20 | 106.54 | 102.69 | 103.75 |
| June 2020 | 30.29 | 137.20 | 107.72 | 102.69 | 104.89 |
| May 2020 | 30.97 | 136.10 | 110.14 | 101.87 | 108.11 |
| April 2020 | 31.14 | 135.70 | 110.74 | 101.57 | 109.03 |
| March 2020 | 29.88 | 136.60 | 106.26 | 102.25 | 103.93 |
| February 2020 | 29.09 | 137.40 | 103.45 | 102.84 | 100.59 |
| January 2020 | 28.95 | 136.80 | 102.95 | 102.40 | 100.54 |
| December 2019 | 28.64 | 136.40 | 101.85 | 102.10 | 99.76 |
| November 2019 | 28.66 | 136.40 | 101.92 | 102.10 | 99.83 |
| October 2019 | 28.66 | 136.60 | 101.92 | 102.25 | 99.68 |
| September 2019 | 28.62 | 136.20 | 101.78 | 101.95 | 99.84 |
| August 2019 | 28.10 | 136.80 | 99.93 | 102.40 | 97.59 |
| July 2019 | 28.13 | 137.00 | 100.04 | 102.54 | 97.55 |
| June 2019 | 28.26 | 136.30 | 100.50 | 102.02 | 98.51 |
| May 2019 | 28.11 | 136.60 | 99.96 | 102.25 | 97.77 |
| April 2019 | 28.18 | 136.00 | 100.21 | 101.80 | 98.44 |
| March 2019 | 28.13 | 135.40 | 100.04 | 101.35 | 98.71 |
| February 2019 | 28.16 | 134.50 | 100.14 | 100.67 | 99.47 |
| January 2019 | 28.12 | 133.60 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
Sources, calculation and limits
Canada; all employees, both full- and part-time, all industries, age 15+; unadjusted average hourly wage and all-items CPI; January 2019 = 100.
The fixed January 2019 comparison can end in a different calendar month; seasonal patterns may affect that difference because neither series is seasonally adjusted. Same-month annual comparisons reduce this mismatch but do not control for a changing employee mix. The employee mix can change. This is not median pay, a fixed-worker wage increase, take-home pay, annual household income or household purchasing power. Hours, taxes and individual spending baskets are not measured here.
Price-adjusted change (%) = 100 × [(ending wage ÷ starting wage) ÷ (ending CPI ÷ starting CPI) − 1]. We calculate from the source levels before rounding. The wage and price indices are shown to two decimals and changes to one decimal.
Statistics Canada: Employee wages · v2132579 · observations held through September 2026; captured 2026-10-10. Archived copy SHA-256: 777d203be9ba8d8fd3a238a57ebfe5871787dafa10eff5668a430dea76fdf6cc
Statistics Canada: All-items consumer prices · v41690973 · observations held through September 2026; captured 2026-10-19. Archived copy SHA-256: b30e67fb3aaa6cda4753933f429da0e4d1b7de336a1428e421b616152013dda5
Adapted from Statistics Canada, tables 14-10-0063-01 and 18-10-0004-01, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.
The comparison advances only when both series have a verified observation for the same month. New source releases and revisions trigger a fresh calculation and source check; employment headlines alone do not update this panel.
Chapter 7§
What this reading cannot say
The boundaries a reader should hold against every sentence above: what a rate ranking is not, what changed inside the comparison window, which population the rent index measures, how far back the held evidence reaches, and which of these figures the issuer itself expects to restate.
Chapter 8§
What to watch next
The releases that can change this reading, in the order they are expected, and what each one can and cannot settle — a new month of prices is not a new basket, and neither is a revision to a core measure.
Directly observed
No section of this Brief currently carries an audited outcome — zero is shown, not hidden.
Method and limitations
- Every figure on this Brief is derived here, from Consumer Price Index series this record holds under a content hash, on conventions frozen before the release they read. The change over the year is the index for a month divided by the index for the same month a year earlier, less one, as a percent, rounded half away from zero to one decimal on the percent and never on the index; the change over the month is the same arithmetic against the preceding month; a gap between two rates is the difference of the two already-rounded percents, in percentage points, never a ratio of levels and never a blended series. The Bank of Canada core measures are the one exception, and they are not derived here at all: they are Statistics Canada's own published rates, restated as published. Components are ranked against each other by their own rate of change and are never weighted, combined or summed, because this record does not hold the basket weights that a contribution to the headline would require. The published tables distinguish the component rates, headline, core measures and matched-month wage comparison. The grocery level comparison divides the current September index by the September index six years earlier, subtracts one and multiplies by one hundred. The separate price-adjusted average wage change divides wage growth factors by CPI growth factors before subtracting one; it is distinct from the rounded-rate gap.
- Component growth is not a contribution to headline inflation. No basket weights are held or used here; component rates are never added.
- The May 2026 basket update lies inside this annual comparison. Five monthly reference periods from May through September use the updated basket; the other seven predate it. This count does not measure a basket-update effect on inflation.
- CPI rent covers the occupied rental stock, including existing tenancies. Advertised asking rents concern a different population.
- The October 19 capture adds September to all 27 held CPI series and revises four historical values in the core series: three CPI-common rates and the August CPI-median index. Headline/component retained values are unchanged. Every held month is preserved.
- Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 18-10-0256-01, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product. Headline and component indexes use table 18-10-0004-01; wages use table 14-10-0063-01.
- The current captured monthly index window begins in September 2006. Its first available year-over-year comparison is September 2007. This is the held window, not the full history published by Statistics Canada.
- Wage growth less CPI growth is a difference of rounded rates in percentage points. The separate wage-and-price level comparison uses a compounded ratio. Neither estimates each household’s purchasing power; average wages are unadjusted and composition-sensitive.
- Energy and gasoline annual changes compare with September levels that had declined a year earlier. Annual rates do not isolate current-month pressure or a separate base-effect contribution.
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