Resolution
President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register); Prime Minister of Canada (pm.gc.ca) and Department of Finance Canada (canada.ca) for the Canadian-government publications pinned herefiscalMaintained recordCurrent

The 2026 United States Section 338 tariff escalation on Canadian goods: the operative rate, predicates, and dates, from the primary documents

Three presidential proclamations under section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, signed 2026-07-20, each imposing an additional 50 percent ad valorem duty on certain products of Canada set forth in that proclamation's own Annex II, on a discrimination predicate specific to each proclamation (alcoholic beverages, dairy, motor vehicles respectively), the section 232 and WTO civil-aircraft exclusions each proclamation states, each proclamation's own Annex I -- named once, in each proclamation's own additivity clause, as a possible exception to the rule that these duties stack with other duties, its contents not in the transcribed prose -- the scheduled-to-actual effective-date divergence a fourth proclamation created, and the Government of Canada's own 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-22 statements of retaliatory intent. This entry follows this record's earlier Resolution on the 2025 United States tariff actions on Canadian goods, and does not edit or supersede it Extended 2026-08-25 with the Department of Finance Canada's own concretization of Canada's retaliatory intent: the counter-tariff rate schedule (15, 25, and 50 percent, which the government states matches the corresponding U.S. rate for each product), its own $27.6 billion scope figure -- the release's own precise restatement of the earlier 'roughly $28 billion' figure, and, by the same announcement's dollar-for-dollar design, the matching value of the U.S. goods Canada's own counter-tariffs will apply to -- an effective date of 2026-09-08, and a $7.5 billion support package for tariff-affected workers and businesses, on top of the government's own stated nearly $25 billion in supports over the prior 18 months.

A Resolution record holds one institution's own published figures for a single, specific quantity — a projection, an estimate, or a measured record — across every vintage in which that institution restated it. Each time an issuer publishes a new budget, report, or release, an earlier figure does not disappear from the record; it is preserved exactly as it was first published, dated and cited, alongside the newer one. What is a Resolution record? →

Maintained record. This lineage preserves an official record version by version — observations, estimates, or benchmarks its issuer restated over time. It projects nothing, so no settlement is pending; where a figure can still be revised, the page says so. How the numbers moved between versions is the evidence this lineage exists to keep.

The lineage

VintageIssuerPublishedPositionSource
91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991)President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-07-23currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
91 FR 46653 (document number 2026-14992)President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-07-23currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997)President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-07-23currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
91 FR 54789 (document number 2026-17294)President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-08-24currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
pm.gc.ca statement, dated 2026-08-21Prime Minister of Canada (Office of the Prime Minister)2026-08-21currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
pm.gc.ca remarks, dated 2026-08-22Prime Minister of Canada (Office of the Prime Minister)2026-08-22currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25Department of Finance Canada2026-08-25currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-25
canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25Department of Finance Canada2026-08-25currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-25
canada.ca programs page, own page-details date 2026-08-25, list effective 2026-09-08Department of Finance Canada2026-08-25currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-25
canada.ca programs page, own page-details date 2026-08-25Department of Finance Canada2026-08-25currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-25
VintagePeriodValueRoleAssuranceBasis
91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991)Additional duty on certain products of Canada set forth in Proclamation 11046's own Annex II (the alcoholic-beverage discrimination proclamation), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 1105650.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark
91 FR 46653 (document number 2026-14992)Additional duty on certain products of Canada set forth in Proclamation 11047's own Annex II (the dairy discrimination proclamation), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 1105650.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark
91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997)Additional duty on certain Canadian products under the motor-vehicles proclamation (Proclamation 11048, Annex II), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 1105650.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark
91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991)Canadian imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages, March 2024 through February 2025 (the prior-year comparison window Proclamation 11046 itself uses)718.0 US$ millioninstitutional estimate
91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991)Canadian imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages, March 2025 through February 2026 (Proclamation 11046's own comparison window)137.0 US$ millioninstitutional estimate
91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997)Imports of U.S. motor vehicles into Canada, April 2024 through March 2025 (the prior-year comparison window Proclamation 11048 itself uses)25.9 US$ billioninstitutional estimate
91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997)Imports of U.S. motor vehicles into Canada, April 2025 through March 2026 (Proclamation 11048's own comparison window)20.3 US$ billioninstitutional estimate
pm.gc.ca statement, dated 2026-08-21Value of Canadian goods the Prime Minister's statement (2026-08-21) states the U.S. tariff was about to apply to, and which Canada's dollar-for-dollar retaliation is scoped against28.0 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis)institutional estimate
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25The lowest of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08, each product's rate matching the corresponding U.S. rate for that product15.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff)benchmark
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25The middle of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08 -- also the rate several existing Canadian counter-tariffs (including on U.S. autos) already carried before this schedule and continue to carry25.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff)benchmark
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25The highest of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08 -- matching the 50 percent U.S. rate pinned elsewhere in this entry50.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff)benchmark
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25Value of U.S. imports into Canada that the Department of Finance Canada's own 2026-08-25 news release states Canada's counter-tariffs apply to27.6 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis)institutional estimate
canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25The new and enhanced support package for tariff-affected workers and businesses the Government of Canada announced 2026-08-257.5 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in either document; see basis)institutional estimate
canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25The government's own approximate cumulative figure for tariff-related support it states it provided in the 18 months before 2026-08-25 (the base the new $7.5 billion package is stated to build on)25.0 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated; the source's own word 'nearly' -- an approximate, not an exact, figure)institutional estimate

Movement between vintages

A record, not a ranking: this entry states what was published and how it compares to what followed. It never says who was right, which institution performed better, or grades a forecaster's competence.

ComparisonCompared vintagesMovementBasis
Canadian imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages: the March 2024-February 2025 window against the March 2025-February 2026 window -- two periods inside one document (Proclamation 11046), not two vintages of a restated figure91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) (institutional estimate 718.0 US$ million) vs. 91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) (institutional estimate 137.0 US$ million)-581.0 US$ millionsame issuer
Imports of U.S. motor vehicles into Canada: the April 2024-March 2025 window against the April 2025-March 2026 window -- two periods inside one document (Proclamation 11048), not two vintages of a restated figure91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) (institutional estimate 25.9 US$ billion) vs. 91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) (institutional estimate 20.3 US$ billion)-5.6 US$ billionsame issuer
The Prime Minister's 2026-08-21 'roughly $28 billion' figure against the Department of Finance's 2026-08-25 '$27.6 billion' counter-tariff scope figure -- the release's own lede restates the Prime Minister's figure precisely as $27.6 billion of Canadian goods, and states Canada's own counter-tariffs are matched to it dollar for dollarpm.gc.ca statement, dated 2026-08-21 (institutional estimate 28.0 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis)) vs. canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25 (institutional estimate 27.6 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis))not comparable — The Department of Finance's 2026-08-25 news release states, in its own lede, that the U.S. tariff applies to $27.6 billion of Canadian goods -- the release's own precise figure for the same population the Prime Minister's 2026-08-21 'roughly $28 billion' figure named. The $27.6 billion counter-tariff scope figure compared here is a second figure from the same release: $27.6 billion of U.S. goods Canada's own counter-tariffs apply to, which the release states is matched to the U.S. figure dollar for dollar by the government's own design. This record does not compute a numeric difference between the Prime Minister's figure and either $27.6 billion reading, because the Prime Minister's figure is an approximate, separately sourced statement from a different sub-issuer (Office of the Prime Minister vs. Department of Finance Canada) three days earlier -- not because the figures describe unrelated populations.same issuer
Evidence qualifications (9)
Latest source: The 2026 United States Section 338 tariff escalation on Canadian goods: the operative rate, predicates, and dates, from the primary documents · accessed 2026-08-24

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A record, not a ranking: this entry states what was published and how it compares to what followed. It never says who was right, which institution performed better, or grades a forecaster's competence.

This is the current public record for this lineage. See Work with Countability for a commissioned projection-resolution question.

Work with Countability