Resolution
President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register); Prime Minister of Canada (pm.gc.ca) and Department of Finance Canada (canada.ca) for the Canadian-government publications pinned herefiscalMaintained recordCurrent

The 2026 United States Section 338 tariff escalation on Canadian goods: the operative rate, predicates, and dates, from the primary documents

Current reading, 2026-09-29: five further U.S. proclamations signed September 8 and published in the Federal Register September 14 are now captured with their complete annexes. Proclamations 11061, 11062 and 11063 make narrowly defined Canadian products subject to import exclusion from 12:01 a.m. eastern time on September 29. The named products include specified alcoholic beverages, whey and molasses products, non-alcoholic beer, and the motorcycle tariff line for engines over 800 cc. Proclamations 11064 and 11065 changed the scope of two earlier 50 percent duties from September 15 and expressly apply those amended duties in addition to Section 232 duties. These are legal provisions, not observations of blocked shipments, duties paid, or economic effects. The earlier captured documents and values below are retained as their dated record, not a complete description of the September legal position. Earlier scope, retained: Three presidential proclamations under section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, signed 2026-07-20, each imposing an additional 50 percent ad valorem duty on certain products of Canada set forth in that proclamation's own Annex II, on a discrimination predicate specific to each proclamation (alcoholic beverages, dairy, motor vehicles respectively), the section 232 and WTO civil-aircraft exclusions each proclamation states, each proclamation's own Annex I -- named once, in each proclamation's own additivity clause, as a possible exception to the rule that these duties stack with other duties, its contents not in the transcribed prose -- the scheduled-to-actual effective-date divergence a fourth proclamation created, and the Government of Canada's own 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-22 statements of retaliatory intent. This entry follows this record's earlier Resolution on the 2025 United States tariff actions on Canadian goods, and does not edit or supersede it. Extended 2026-08-25 with the Department of Finance Canada's own concretization of Canada's retaliatory intent: the counter-tariff rate schedule (15, 25, and 50 percent, which the government states matches the corresponding U.S. rate for each product), its own $27.6 billion scope figure -- the release's own precise restatement of the earlier 'roughly $28 billion' figure, and, by the same announcement's dollar-for-dollar design, the matching value of the U.S. goods covered by Canada's announced counter-tariff schedule -- a stated effective date of 2026-09-08, and a $7.5 billion support package for tariff-affected workers and businesses, on top of the government's own stated nearly $25 billion in supports over the prior 18 months.

A Resolution record follows one institution's figures for a defined quantity. It may contain projections, estimates or measured observations. Each version held here keeps its publication date and source, so a newer figure does not erase the earlier one. What is a Resolution record? →

Maintained record. This page preserves successive versions of an official record. It makes no projection and awaits no forecast verdict. Revisions remain visible, and provisional figures retain that status.

The lineage

VintageIssuerPublishedPositionSource
91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991)President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-07-23currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
91 FR 46653 (document number 2026-14992)President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-07-23currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997)President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-07-23currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
91 FR 54789 (document number 2026-17294)President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-08-24currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
pm.gc.ca statement, dated 2026-08-21Prime Minister of Canada (Office of the Prime Minister)2026-08-21currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
pm.gc.ca remarks, dated 2026-08-22Prime Minister of Canada (Office of the Prime Minister)2026-08-22currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25Department of Finance Canada2026-08-25currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-25
canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25Department of Finance Canada2026-08-25currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-25
canada.ca programs page, own page-details date 2026-08-25, list effective 2026-09-08Department of Finance Canada2026-08-25currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-25
canada.ca programs page, own page-details date 2026-08-25Department of Finance Canada2026-08-25currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-25
91 FR 58311 (document number 2026-18835); signed 2026-09-08President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-09-14currentSource → · accessed 2026-09-29
91 FR 58319 (document number 2026-18836); signed 2026-09-08President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-09-14currentSource → · accessed 2026-09-29
91 FR 58325 (document number 2026-18837); signed 2026-09-08President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-09-14currentSource → · accessed 2026-09-29
91 FR 58331 (document number 2026-18838); signed 2026-09-08President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-09-14currentSource → · accessed 2026-09-29
91 FR 58339 (document number 2026-18839); signed 2026-09-08President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-09-14currentSource → · accessed 2026-09-29
VintagePeriodValueRoleAssuranceBasis
91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991)Additional duty on certain products of Canada set forth in Proclamation 11046's own Annex II (the alcoholic-beverage discrimination proclamation), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 1105650.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark——
91 FR 46653 (document number 2026-14992)Additional duty on certain products of Canada set forth in Proclamation 11047's own Annex II (the dairy discrimination proclamation), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 1105650.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark——
91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997)Additional duty on certain Canadian products under the motor-vehicles proclamation (Proclamation 11048, Annex II), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 1105650.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark——
91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991)Canadian imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages, March 2024 through February 2025 (the prior-year comparison window Proclamation 11046 itself uses)718.0 US$ millioninstitutional estimate——
91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991)Canadian imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages, March 2025 through February 2026 (Proclamation 11046's own comparison window)137.0 US$ millioninstitutional estimate——
91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997)Imports of U.S. motor vehicles into Canada, April 2024 through March 2025 (the prior-year comparison window Proclamation 11048 itself uses)25.9 US$ billioninstitutional estimate——
91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997)Imports of U.S. motor vehicles into Canada, April 2025 through March 2026 (Proclamation 11048's own comparison window)20.3 US$ billioninstitutional estimate——
pm.gc.ca statement, dated 2026-08-21Value of Canadian goods the Prime Minister's statement (2026-08-21) states the U.S. tariff was about to apply to, and which Canada's dollar-for-dollar retaliation is scoped against28.0 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis)institutional estimate——
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25The lowest of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08, each product's rate matching the corresponding U.S. rate for that product15.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff)benchmark——
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25The middle of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08 -- also the rate several existing Canadian counter-tariffs (including on U.S. autos) already carried before this schedule and continue to carry25.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff)benchmark——
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25The highest of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08 -- matching the 50 percent U.S. rate pinned elsewhere in this entry50.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff)benchmark——
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25Value of U.S. imports into Canada that the Department of Finance Canada's own 2026-08-25 news release states Canada's counter-tariffs apply to27.6 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis)institutional estimate——
canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25The new and enhanced support package for tariff-affected workers and businesses the Government of Canada announced 2026-08-257.5 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in either document; see basis)institutional estimate——
canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25The government's own approximate cumulative figure for tariff-related support it states it provided in the 18 months before 2026-08-25 (the base the new $7.5 billion package is stated to build on)25.0 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated; the source's own word 'nearly' -- an approximate, not an exact, figure)institutional estimate——

Movement between vintages

This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability.

ComparisonCompared vintagesMovementBasis
Canadian imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages: the March 2024-February 2025 window against the March 2025-February 2026 window -- two periods inside one document (Proclamation 11046), not two vintages of a restated figure91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) (institutional estimate 718.0 US$ million) vs. 91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991) (institutional estimate 137.0 US$ million)-581.0 US$ millionsame issuer
Imports of U.S. motor vehicles into Canada: the April 2024-March 2025 window against the April 2025-March 2026 window -- two periods inside one document (Proclamation 11048), not two vintages of a restated figure91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) (institutional estimate 25.9 US$ billion) vs. 91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997) (institutional estimate 20.3 US$ billion)-5.6 US$ billionsame issuer
The Prime Minister's 2026-08-21 'roughly $28 billion' figure against the Department of Finance's 2026-08-25 '$27.6 billion' counter-tariff scope figure -- the release's own lede restates the Prime Minister's figure precisely as $27.6 billion of Canadian goods, and states Canada's own counter-tariffs are matched to it dollar for dollarpm.gc.ca statement, dated 2026-08-21 (institutional estimate 28.0 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis)) vs. canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25 (institutional estimate 27.6 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis))not comparable — The Department of Finance's 2026-08-25 news release states, in its own lede, that the U.S. tariff applies to $27.6 billion of Canadian goods -- the release's own precise figure for the same population the Prime Minister's 2026-08-21 'roughly $28 billion' figure named. The $27.6 billion counter-tariff scope figure compared here is a second figure from the same release: $27.6 billion of U.S. goods Canada's own counter-tariffs apply to, which the release states is matched to the U.S. figure dollar for dollar by the government's own design. This record does not compute a numeric difference between the Prime Minister's figure and either $27.6 billion reading, because the Prime Minister's figure is an approximate, separately sourced statement from a different sub-issuer (Office of the Prime Minister vs. Department of Finance Canada) three days earlier -- not because the figures describe unrelated populations.same issuer
Evidence qualifications (12)
Latest source: The 2026 United States Section 338 tariff escalation on Canadian goods: the operative rate, predicates, and dates, from the primary documents · accessed 2026-08-24

Related on this site

This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability.

This is the current public record for this lineage. See Work with Countability for a commissioned projection-resolution question.

Work with Countability