Deep Dive · 12 min read
Record date 2026-10-26

The Tariff Ledger

The latest United States actions add import bans on specific Canadian goods and change the tariff lists. The legal record, the trade data and what remains unmeasured are kept separate.

Start here: Read the legal record → · See the analysis over the same evidence → · Follow the next releases →

The latest United States actions go beyond tariffs: specified Canadian alcoholic beverages, whey and molasses products, non-alcoholic beer and a narrowly defined motorcycle category are now subject to import bans under the published proclamations. Earlier in September, separate proclamations added and removed goods from the tariff lists associated with the findings on alcoholic beverages and motor vehicles and made those amended duties apply alongside the relevant sectoral tariffs. A corresponding dairy-scope amendment has not been established in this record. These are product-specific rules, with packaging limits on some alcohol lines and a separate rule for goods already imported before the bans' effective date. The September documents and their full annexes are held in the current record below, alongside the earlier actions and Canada's counter-tariffs. This establishes what the legal texts say. It does not show which shipments were stopped, duties assessed or collected, or an effect on trade, jobs or prices. The merchandise-trade reading still ends before the September actions.

The tariff record itself

The current entry now includes the September import exclusions and changes to the tariff lists, with their source dates, legal effective dates and product limits. Earlier publications and figures remain in their original order as the history of the episode. The older tariff rates must be read with the later modifications; they are not a complete current tariff schedule. The full entry also carries the source cross-reference that has not been established and the limits on what these documents establish.

President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register) · fiscal

The ad valorem duty rates and effective dates the 2025 executive orders and section 232 proclamations state for imports from Canada: the general additional duty (25 percent, effective March 4, 2025; USMCA-preference goods excepted March 7; raised to 35 percent August 1), the 10 percent energy rate, and the separate automobile (25 percent), steel and aluminum (50 percent), and softwood timber and lumber (10 percent) actions. Dated context for the export record -- what changed, and when, in the primary documents' own words.

VintageIssuerPublishedPositionSource
90 FR 9113President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2025-02-07currentSource → · accessed 2026-07-17
90 FR 9113President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2025-02-07currentSource → · accessed 2026-07-17
90 FR 9183President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2025-02-10currentSource → · accessed 2026-07-17
90 FR 11785President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2025-03-11currentSource → · accessed 2026-07-17
90 FR 37957President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2025-08-06currentSource → · accessed 2026-07-17
90 FR 14705President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2025-04-03currentSource → · accessed 2026-07-17
90 FR 24199President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2025-06-09currentSource → · accessed 2026-07-17
90 FR 48127President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2025-10-06currentSource → · accessed 2026-07-17
VintagePeriodValueRoleAssuranceBasis
90 FR 9113Additional duty on products of Canada, effective 2025-03-0425.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark——
90 FR 9113Additional duty on Canadian energy and energy resources, effective 2025-03-0410.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark——
90 FR 37957Additional duty on products of Canada subject to the 25 percent rate, raised effective 2025-08-0135.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark——
90 FR 14705Section 232 tariff on imported automobiles, effective 2025-04-0325.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark——
90 FR 24199Section 232 tariff on steel and aluminum articles, raised effective 2025-06-0450.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark——
90 FR 48127Section 232 duty on softwood timber and lumber, effective 2025-10-1410.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark——

President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register); Prime Minister of Canada (pm.gc.ca) and Department of Finance Canada (canada.ca) for the Canadian-government publications pinned here · fiscal

Current reading, 2026-09-29: five further U.S. proclamations signed September 8 and published in the Federal Register September 14 are now captured with their complete annexes. Proclamations 11061, 11062 and 11063 make narrowly defined Canadian products subject to import exclusion from 12:01 a.m. eastern time on September 29. The named products include specified alcoholic beverages, whey and molasses products, non-alcoholic beer, and the motorcycle tariff line for engines over 800 cc. Proclamations 11064 and 11065 changed the scope of two earlier 50 percent duties from September 15 and expressly apply those amended duties in addition to Section 232 duties. These are legal provisions, not observations of blocked shipments, duties paid, or economic effects. The earlier captured documents and values below are retained as their dated record, not a complete description of the September legal position. Earlier scope, retained: Three presidential proclamations under section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, signed 2026-07-20, each imposing an additional 50 percent ad valorem duty on certain products of Canada set forth in that proclamation's own Annex II, on a discrimination predicate specific to each proclamation (alcoholic beverages, dairy, motor vehicles respectively), the section 232 and WTO civil-aircraft exclusions each proclamation states, each proclamation's own Annex I -- named once, in each proclamation's own additivity clause, as a possible exception to the rule that these duties stack with other duties, its contents not in the transcribed prose -- the scheduled-to-actual effective-date divergence a fourth proclamation created, and the Government of Canada's own 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-22 statements of retaliatory intent. This entry follows this record's earlier Resolution on the 2025 United States tariff actions on Canadian goods, and does not edit or supersede it. Extended 2026-08-25 with the Department of Finance Canada's own concretization of Canada's retaliatory intent: the counter-tariff rate schedule (15, 25, and 50 percent, which the government states matches the corresponding U.S. rate for each product), its own $27.6 billion scope figure -- the release's own precise restatement of the earlier 'roughly $28 billion' figure, and, by the same announcement's dollar-for-dollar design, the matching value of the U.S. goods covered by Canada's announced counter-tariff schedule -- a stated effective date of 2026-09-08, and a $7.5 billion support package for tariff-affected workers and businesses, on top of the government's own stated nearly $25 billion in supports over the prior 18 months.

VintageIssuerPublishedPositionSource
91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991)President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-07-23currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
91 FR 46653 (document number 2026-14992)President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-07-23currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997)President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-07-23currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
91 FR 54789 (document number 2026-17294)President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-08-24currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
pm.gc.ca statement, dated 2026-08-21Prime Minister of Canada (Office of the Prime Minister)2026-08-21currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
pm.gc.ca remarks, dated 2026-08-22Prime Minister of Canada (Office of the Prime Minister)2026-08-22currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-24
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25Department of Finance Canada2026-08-25currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-25
canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25Department of Finance Canada2026-08-25currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-25
canada.ca programs page, own page-details date 2026-08-25, list effective 2026-09-08Department of Finance Canada2026-08-25currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-25
canada.ca programs page, own page-details date 2026-08-25Department of Finance Canada2026-08-25currentSource → · accessed 2026-08-25
91 FR 58311 (document number 2026-18835); signed 2026-09-08President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-09-14currentSource → · accessed 2026-09-29
91 FR 58319 (document number 2026-18836); signed 2026-09-08President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-09-14currentSource → · accessed 2026-09-29
91 FR 58325 (document number 2026-18837); signed 2026-09-08President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-09-14currentSource → · accessed 2026-09-29
91 FR 58331 (document number 2026-18838); signed 2026-09-08President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-09-14currentSource → · accessed 2026-09-29
91 FR 58339 (document number 2026-18839); signed 2026-09-08President of the United States (Office of the Federal Register)2026-09-14currentSource → · accessed 2026-09-29
VintagePeriodValueRoleAssuranceBasis
91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991)Additional duty on certain products of Canada set forth in Proclamation 11046's own Annex II (the alcoholic-beverage discrimination proclamation), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 1105650.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark——
91 FR 46653 (document number 2026-14992)Additional duty on certain products of Canada set forth in Proclamation 11047's own Annex II (the dairy discrimination proclamation), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 1105650.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark——
91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997)Additional duty on certain Canadian products under the motor-vehicles proclamation (Proclamation 11048, Annex II), delayed from the proclamation's own stated 2026-08-19 effective date to 2026-08-22 by Proclamation 1105650.0 % ad valorem (additional duty)benchmark——
91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991)Canadian imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages, March 2024 through February 2025 (the prior-year comparison window Proclamation 11046 itself uses)718.0 US$ millioninstitutional estimate——
91 FR 46639 (document number 2026-14991)Canadian imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages, March 2025 through February 2026 (Proclamation 11046's own comparison window)137.0 US$ millioninstitutional estimate——
91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997)Imports of U.S. motor vehicles into Canada, April 2024 through March 2025 (the prior-year comparison window Proclamation 11048 itself uses)25.9 US$ billioninstitutional estimate——
91 FR 46663 (document number 2026-14997)Imports of U.S. motor vehicles into Canada, April 2025 through March 2026 (Proclamation 11048's own comparison window)20.3 US$ billioninstitutional estimate——
pm.gc.ca statement, dated 2026-08-21Value of Canadian goods the Prime Minister's statement (2026-08-21) states the U.S. tariff was about to apply to, and which Canada's dollar-for-dollar retaliation is scoped against28.0 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis)institutional estimate——
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25The lowest of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08, each product's rate matching the corresponding U.S. rate for that product15.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff)benchmark——
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25The middle of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08 -- also the rate several existing Canadian counter-tariffs (including on U.S. autos) already carried before this schedule and continue to carry25.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff)benchmark——
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25The highest of the three counter-tariff rate tiers in Canada's own countermeasure schedule, effective 2026-09-08 -- matching the 50 percent U.S. rate pinned elsewhere in this entry50.0 % ad valorem (counter-tariff)benchmark——
canada.ca news release, dated 2026-08-25Value of U.S. imports into Canada that the Department of Finance Canada's own 2026-08-25 news release states Canada's counter-tariffs apply to27.6 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in the statement; see basis)institutional estimate——
canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25The new and enhanced support package for tariff-affected workers and businesses the Government of Canada announced 2026-08-257.5 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated in either document; see basis)institutional estimate——
canada.ca backgrounder, dated 2026-08-25The government's own approximate cumulative figure for tariff-related support it states it provided in the 18 months before 2026-08-25 (the base the new $7.5 billion package is stated to build on)25.0 $ billion (currency as stated -- not explicitly designated; the source's own word 'nearly' -- an approximate, not an exact, figure)institutional estimate——

What arrives next, and what it can show

A tariff action and a measurement of trade run on two different clocks, and they are not in step. The rows below name the official records that arrive next, the period each one covers, and whether that period ends before an action, only partly follows it, or falls entirely after it. Each date also says where it comes from: the issuer's own schedule, this record's reading of the issuer's observed monthly cadence, or the document that states it. Where no source this record has captured pins a date, the row says so rather than estimating one. The calendar comparisons below use the original August United States duties and Canada’s September counter-tariffs. The later September scope changes and import exclusions are described in the current legal record above; the August observation period precedes them.

WhenEvent or releaseWhat it can and cannot show
2026-09-08 date stated in the documentCanada's counter-tariffs became legally effectiveLegally effective on this date under the Department of Finance Canada's own published schedule. This record has not yet observed duties assessed or collected on shipments.
2026-11-04 issuer-stated dateThe first trade record covering the September reference month
Period covered: 2026-09-01 — 2026-09-30
  • Entirely after the original August United States duties (2026-08-22)
  • Only partly after Canada's counter-tariffs (2026-09-08)
Nothing in this record separates price from volume, or one country's action from the other's. These calendar comparisons use the original United States duties and Canada’s counter-tariffs; the September scope changes and import exclusions are described separately in the legal record.

What has not been observed

Something a reader would reasonably want from a tariff ledger is not established in this record. It is set out here the same way every absence is set out on this site: what is known, what is not observed, why that matters, what would close it, and which official record comes next.

Evidence gap

What share of Canada's exports to the United States is actually subject to tariffs right now, and at what effective rates?

Known: The operative documents themselves are on the record, document by document: each United States proclamation's own additional rate, the products its own annex sets out, and the exclusions it states; the date those duties became legally effective; and Canada's own counter-tariff rate tiers, its own scope figure, and the date its counter-tariffs become legally effective. All of it is pinned in this record's Resolution on the 2026 United States tariff actions and Canada's answer to it.

Not observed: No official source on either side of the border publishes a continuously updated, machine-readable statement of the tariff status of Canadian exports. The operative documents state rates, scopes, and effective dates, but the duty actually applied to a shipment depends on USMCA qualification, product classification, exclusions, stacking rules, and later modifications — determinations spread across executive orders, proclamations, agency notices, and rulings, with no consolidated official series.

Why it matters: The U.S. Exposure Brief shows the export record beside the dated tariff actions, but it cannot state what fraction of U.S.-bound exports is tariffed or at what effective rate — any such coverage percentage would be an outside model, not a reading of the record. Public claims about 'x per cent of exports now face tariffs' rest on estimates whose assumptions are rarely published.

What closes it: Either government publishing a continuously updated, openly licensed series of duty collections or tariff coverage on Canada–U.S. trade at product grain — or customs releasing duty-assessed values beside trade values on a compatible classification.

Next relevant record: No scheduled release closes this gap, because neither government publishes the series that would. Statistics Canada's monthly trade record — the next official record the exposure reading turns on — states the value of what crossed the border, not the duty assessed on it.

The fiscal plan the tariffs arrived after

Canada's government does not build its own economic forecast. It surveys outside economists, then builds its official fiscal update on top of that average. The survey behind the current update was taken in the spring, before this year's tariff round and before the new support package existed, so the projections resting on it could not have counted either one. That is the whole of what this episode says about the country's own books. The fiscal plan itself, the movement between its vintages, and the disagreement between the government's own projection and Parliament's independent one are a separate reading, linked below.

Finance Canadavintage 2026-04Current model

Spring Economic Update 2026 ("Canada Strong For All")

Government's own fiscal projection, reaffirming the two fiscal anchors announced in Budget 2025: (1) a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio over the projection horizon, and (2) balancing day-to-day operating spending with revenues by fiscal year 2028-29

Measure: pct of gdp.

Source: Finance Canada publication · accessed 2026-07-08

More on this: The federal budgetary balance for fiscal 2025-26, across four Finance Canada projection vintages, before the audited Public Accounts settle it → · Are Canada's governments meeting their own fiscal anchors? →

Source trail & method

Each claim carries its evidence tier, confidence and source. Correlation means observed co-movement, not cause. Missing links in the evidence are identified, and every figure belongs to a cited member of the published record.

Where this sits in the record

This Deep Dive and its underlying question are published in full. See Work with Countability for a commissioned one.

Work with Countability