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Two different questions. An authority can document a constraint without revealing every project's claim on capacity. This watch records that evidence. It does not compute whether all announced plans can fit inside a shared pool.
01 / Mannheim Service Area · Ontario
Adding homes in Waterloo Region
Authority reports a constraint
New development needs a water allocation. The Region reports a supply constraint and has begun assigning an initial tranche of capacity.
Kitchener, Waterloo and parts of Cambridge, Woolwich and Wilmot. This is a water-service boundary, not the whole region.
30 L/s
Produced for new development, reported August 14
The Region’s wider plan is to add up to 600 L/s by 2032. That is planned relief, not today’s unallocated supply.
Treatment upgrades and well work are intended to release capacity in stages. The published timeline puts a second side-stream stage in summer 2027.
What this does not establish
The initial allocation does not establish capacity for every planned home. Already approved construction can continue. A plant arriving on site is not proof of commissioned supply.
Next evidence to watch
Check the next allocation report and whether the temporary side-stream treatment enters service. Record an actual operating date separately from its expected date.
Monthly council updates; also at commissioning or allocation changes
Inspect the evidence and the gap 7 source checks
Still missing: A current, reconciled balance of usable supply, existing commitments and each proposed development's remaining demand.
The Region identifies the affected service area and says already approved construction continues.
The side-stream works are temporary pending longer-term filtration upgrades. Rehabilitation and transferred supply must remain distinct from new supply.
The Region gives a broader relief plan of up to 600 litres per second by 2032. This is a future plan, not the denominator for current development access.
Evidence period: August 14, 2026, plus pages checked September 13. Reading reviewed 2026-09-13. A capture date records when the document was preserved, not when its underlying measurements occurred.
The IESO links mining and industrial growth to grid reinforcement. It separates work to advance now from options whose construction depends on future conditions.
The IESO's North of Sudbury planning area. No individual mine's connection or construction status is inferred.
Mining and industrial demandtransmission reinforcementpower delivered
What could ease it
Transmission reinforcement is the planner’s proposed response. The plan describes regulatory review before construction and energization.
What this does not establish
A regional forecast and a proposed reinforcement do not prove that a named mine is blocked today.
Next evidence to watch
Follow transmitter selection, regulatory applications and dated construction or energization notices. Keep an early-development option separate from a line approved for construction.
At a plan revision, regulatory filing or project milestone
Inspect the evidence and the gap 3 source checks
Still missing: Project-level demand allocations and an exact, time-matched local capacity balance for each mine.
The IESO identifies a growth-related need for electricity infrastructure.
Evidence period: August 20, 2026. Reading reviewed 2026-09-13. A capture date records when the document was preserved, not when its underlying measurements occurred.
New generationtransmission connectionelectricity reaches demand
What could ease it
Early actions include a Bowmanville-to-eastern-GTA line and Barrie–Orangeville line work. Further reinforcements depend on demand, generation and policy developments.
What this does not establish
A planning recommendation is not an operating line. This evidence does not establish a delay to a reactor or assign spare transfer capacity to it.
Next evidence to watch
Check transmission approvals and in-service dates against the relevant generation milestones, using project documents for both sides of the comparison.
At a transmission approval, schedule revision or generation milestone
Inspect the evidence and the gap 3 source checks
Still missing: A verified generation-to-transmission schedule match and a project-specific transfer-capacity allocation.
The IESO names the transmission connection needed for the generation initiatives.
Evidence period: August 20, 2026. Reading reviewed 2026-09-13. A capture date records when the document was preserved, not when its underlying measurements occurred.
04 / Trans Mountain system · Alberta–British Columbia
Moving western oil through Trans Mountain
Operating evidence
The latest captured month shows high use of the system's available capacity. Reported apportionment is zero: these measures answer different questions.
System-level monthly flows across Burnaby, Sumas and Westridge; crude oil and refined petroleum products. This is not a marine-only export measure.
Monthly use of available capacity Trans Mountain system · %
High monthly use does not measure a new project's guaranteed access.
Inspect the calculation and all 18 months
Use = the sum of reported Burnaby, Sumas and Westridge delivery flows across their product rows ÷ the same month's system available capacity × 100.
June 2026: 137.61813 ÷ 143.0 × 100 = 96.2%
Both inputs are in thousand cubic metres per day. Source precision is retained in the calculation; displayed values are rounded. The CER reports zero apportionment in each displayed month. No producer's planned output is assigned to this pipeline.
Same captured edition; these are observation months, not previous Countability readings
Month
Flow, 1,000 m³/day
Available capacity, 1,000 m³/day
Use
Apportionment
2025-01
120.336
143.000
84.2%
0.0%
2025-02
114.330
142.000
80.5%
0.0%
2025-03
126.027
142.000
88.8%
0.0%
2025-04
111.964
141.000
79.4%
0.0%
2025-05
111.781
142.000
78.7%
0.0%
2025-06
111.547
142.000
78.6%
0.0%
2025-07
113.734
142.000
80.1%
0.0%
2025-08
127.408
144.000
88.5%
0.0%
2025-09
129.665
137.000
94.6%
0.0%
2025-10
133.946
143.000
93.7%
0.0%
2025-11
135.984
141.000
96.4%
0.0%
2025-12
115.359
143.000
80.7%
0.0%
2026-01
122.125
144.000
84.8%
0.0%
2026-02
101.938
143.000
71.3%
0.0%
2026-03
125.969
143.000
88.1%
0.0%
2026-04
135.352
137.000
98.8%
0.0%
2026-05
127.866
144.000
88.8%
0.0%
2026-06
137.618
143.000
96.2%
0.0%
What could ease it
This watch does not book proposed expansions as current capacity. It follows the operator's capacity observations reported through the CER.
What this does not establish
Monthly use is not guaranteed spare capacity for a new project. Zero reported apportionment does not prove that every route, product or shipper has unrestricted access.
Next evidence to watch
Read the next throughput, available-capacity and apportionment observations together. Check revisions to earlier months before interpreting a change.
On the next CER dataset edition; retain every captured edition
Inspect the evidence and the gap 4 source checks
Still missing: A documented allocation from individual proposed production projects to this pipeline, its delivery points and service classes.
Countability sums the disjoint reported flows and divides by the same month's system available capacity. It does not use nameplate capacity or nominations.
Source: Canada Energy Regulator. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada. Countability calculated the capacity-use series.
Evidence period: June 2026 observations · captured September 13. Reading reviewed 2026-09-13. A capture date records when the document was preserved, not when its underlying measurements occurred.
Each case separates the initiative, the physical dependency, the source's finding and the next piece of evidence. Source findings stay attributed. Arithmetic names its inputs and scope. Missing allocations remain visible.
Source observations can support, weaken or leave a concern unresolved. Planned work is never booked as delivered capacity. A revision to a source is preserved and reviewed before this reading changes.
This is the first preserved Countability reading of this watch. The historical events and monthly series above come from source documents; they are not past Countability forecasts. The next evidence to watch is identified for each case.