How Canada's monthly export figure moves after it is published: the issuer's own revision archive, December 2023 through July 2026
Statistics Canada publishes a table whose whole purpose is to keep its own earlier answers. Table 12-10-0165-01 carries a Release dimension: every monthly merchandise-trade release since December 2023 survives inside it as a separate member, so the value a reference month was given on the day it was first published can be set against the value the same month carries today. This entry pins that movement for the aggregate export series -- exports, balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted, total of all merchandise, Canada -- which is the same series the U.S. Exposure Brief already reads through a different table. It states how far first-published monthly export figures have moved, in which direction, and over how many releases. It does not adjust any figure, does not project where a current figure will settle, and does not treat the size of a revision as a statement about the issuer.
What the updated record shows
Recomputed for the October 4, 2026 review. Source captured 2026-10-04; table metadata released September 14, 2026. The dated study below is retained as a historical reading.
The trade archive now contains 34 releases, ending September 3, 2026, with reference months through July 2026. It provides 33 months whose first recorded export estimate can be followed through later releases. Values cover Canada’s merchandise exports on a seasonally adjusted balance-of-payments basis.
The twelve first estimates for 2025 add up to $779.31 billion. Those same twelve months total $775.78 billion in the latest vintage, a change of $-3.52 billion. This adds monthly values; it does not turn each preliminary release into a final annual figure.
| Reference month | First estimate ($m) | Latest estimate ($m) | Change ($m) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08 | 60,584.3 | 60,679.3 | +95.0 |
| 2025-09 | 64,231.1 | 64,570.7 | +339.6 |
| 2025-10 | 65,606.7 | 65,481.6 | -125.1 |
| 2025-11 | 63,942.7 | 64,135.7 | +193.0 |
| 2025-12 | 65,625.1 | 65,961.3 | +336.2 |
| 2026-01 | 62,480.3 | 63,123.1 | +642.8 |
| 2026-02 | 66,311.5 | 67,362.0 | +1,050.5 |
| 2026-03 | 72,773.4 | 74,258.7 | +1,485.3 |
| 2026-04 | 75,160.4 | 76,676.9 | +1,516.5 |
| 2026-05 | 77,099.2 | 77,341.9 | +242.7 |
| 2026-06 | 77,486.4 | 77,959.1 | +472.7 |
| 2026-07 | 76,137.4 | 76,137.4 | +0.0 |
July 2026 has no later release in this table, so its zero change means it has not yet been revised here. Earlier months already present in the December 2023 vintage are left-censored; the downloadable record identifies them rather than calling them first estimates. The latest vintage remains revisable.
Download the complete dated calculation (JSON) · Statistics Canada source table · Statistics Canada Open Licence. Source: Statistics Canada; calculations by Countability. This is a record of past revisions, not a forecast.
A Resolution record follows one institution's figures for a defined quantity. It may contain projections, estimates or measured observations. Each version held here keeps its publication date and source, so a newer figure does not erase the earlier one. What is a Resolution record? →
Maintained record. This page preserves successive versions of an official record. It makes no projection and awaits no forecast verdict. Revisions remain visible, and provisional figures retain that status.
The lineage
| Vintage | Issuer | Published | Position | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Release member 32 of 32, the most recent release the table carries; reference months 2020-06 through 2026-05 within the captured window | Statistics Canada | 2026-07-07 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-26 |
| Release member 16 of 32; its final reference month is 2025-01, so this member holds the January 2025 export figure as first published | Statistics Canada | 2025-03-06 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-26 |
| Release member 18 of 32; its final reference month is 2025-03, so this member holds the March 2025 export figure as first published | Statistics Canada | 2025-05-06 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-26 |
| Release member 30 of 32; its final reference month is 2026-03, so this member holds the March 2026 export figure as first published | Statistics Canada | 2026-05-05 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-26 |
| Twelve distinct release members, one per reference month of calendar 2025, each read at the month it first published; the publication date recorded is the last of the twelve | Statistics Canada | 2026-02-19 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-26 |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | Statistics Canada | 2026-07-07 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-17 |
| Vintage | Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Release member 16 of 32; its final reference month is 2025-01, so this member holds the January 2025 export figure as first published | January 2025 exports, as first published on 6 March 2025 | 74,464.5 CAD millions | preliminary observation | unaudited | as first published |
| Release member 32 of 32, the most recent release the table carries; reference months 2020-06 through 2026-05 within the captured window | January 2025 exports, as the same series reads at the 7 July 2026 release | 73,521.4 CAD millions | revised observation | unaudited | restated comparative |
| Release member 18 of 32; its final reference month is 2025-03, so this member holds the March 2025 export figure as first published | March 2025 exports, as first published on 6 May 2025 | 69,895.3 CAD millions | preliminary observation | unaudited | as first published |
| Release member 32 of 32, the most recent release the table carries; reference months 2020-06 through 2026-05 within the captured window | March 2025 exports, as the same series reads at the 7 July 2026 release | 67,151.5 CAD millions | revised observation | unaudited | restated comparative |
| Release member 30 of 32; its final reference month is 2026-03, so this member holds the March 2026 export figure as first published | March 2026 exports, as first published on 5 May 2026 | 72,773.4 CAD millions | preliminary observation | unaudited | as first published |
| Release member 32 of 32, the most recent release the table carries; reference months 2020-06 through 2026-05 within the captured window | March 2026 exports, as the same series reads at the 7 July 2026 release | 74,482.0 CAD millions | revised observation | unaudited | restated comparative |
| Twelve distinct release members, one per reference month of calendar 2025, each read at the month it first published; the publication date recorded is the last of the twelve | Calendar 2025 exports, summed from the twelve monthly figures as each was first published | 779,309.3 CAD millions | preliminary observation | unaudited | as first published |
| Release member 32 of 32, the most recent release the table carries; reference months 2020-06 through 2026-05 within the captured window | Calendar 2025 exports, summed from the same twelve months as they read at the 7 July 2026 release | 775,784.7 CAD millions | revised observation | unaudited | restated comparative |
| Release member 32 of 32, the most recent release the table carries; reference months 2020-06 through 2026-05 within the captured window | May 2026 exports -- the freshest month in the record, and a first print with no later release behind it | 77,099.2 CAD millions | preliminary observation | unaudited | as first published |
| Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 | May 2026 exports as the ordinary monthly trade table publishes them (the cross-channel control) | 77,099.2 CAD millions | preliminary observation | unaudited | as first published |
Movement between vintages
This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability.
| Comparison | Compared vintages | Movement | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2025 exports: first print against the current figure | Release member 16 of 32; its final reference month is 2025-01, so this member holds the January 2025 export figure as first published (preliminary observation 74,464.5 CAD millions) vs. Release member 32 of 32, the most recent release the table carries; reference months 2020-06 through 2026-05 within the captured window (revised observation 73,521.4 CAD millions) | -943.1 CAD millions | same issuer |
| March 2025 exports: the largest revision in the window | Release member 18 of 32; its final reference month is 2025-03, so this member holds the March 2025 export figure as first published (preliminary observation 69,895.3 CAD millions) vs. Release member 32 of 32, the most recent release the table carries; reference months 2020-06 through 2026-05 within the captured window (revised observation 67,151.5 CAD millions) | -2,743.8 CAD millions | same issuer |
| March 2026 exports: how far a recent month has already moved, in three releases | Release member 30 of 32; its final reference month is 2026-03, so this member holds the March 2026 export figure as first published (preliminary observation 72,773.4 CAD millions) vs. Release member 32 of 32, the most recent release the table carries; reference months 2020-06 through 2026-05 within the captured window (revised observation 74,482.0 CAD millions) | +1,708.6 CAD millions | same issuer |
| Calendar 2025 exports: the twelve first prints against the same twelve months today | Twelve distinct release members, one per reference month of calendar 2025, each read at the month it first published; the publication date recorded is the last of the twelve (preliminary observation 779,309.3 CAD millions) vs. Release member 32 of 32, the most recent release the table carries; reference months 2020-06 through 2026-05 within the captured window (revised observation 775,784.7 CAD millions) | -3,524.6 CAD millions | same issuer |
| May 2026 exports read through the revision archive and through the ordinary monthly table | Reference months 1997-01 through 2026-05, as published at the May-2026 release (The Daily, 2026-07-07) and captured 2026-07-17 (preliminary observation 77,099.2 CAD millions) vs. Release member 32 of 32, the most recent release the table carries; reference months 2020-06 through 2026-05 within the captured window (preliminary observation 77,099.2 CAD millions) | +0.0 CAD millions | same issuer |
Evidence qualifications (6)
- This is the aggregate export series, not the United States series. Table 12-10-0165-01 carries one geography -- Canada -- and no partner dimension at all, so it holds the revision history of total merchandise exports to every destination combined. It says how much the total that the U.S.-bound figures sit inside moves after publication. It does not say how much the U.S.-bound figures themselves move, and no issuer publishes a partner-level revision archive that would.
- A revision is not an error. The cube exists because the issuer plans to revise: preliminary figures are replaced as respondent data arrives and again at annual and historical revisions, and the footnote says so. The sizes recorded here are the ordinary working of a monthly statistical programme, stated so that a reader knows how firm a fresh monthly figure is.
- There is no correction factor here, and none can be derived from this entry. Of the thirty-one reference months in this window with at least one later release, eighteen were revised up and thirteen down, and every one of the thirty-one was revised by something. A first print cannot be adjusted toward its settled value by any fixed amount or direction the record supports.
- The window is the cube's, not the record's. The Release dimension holds thirty-two members, from December 6, 2023 to July 7, 2026, and the capture requested the latest seventy-two reference months, so every figure here sits inside 2020-06 to 2026-05. Reference months whose first publication predates December 2023 have no first print inside this window and none is inferred for them.
- The most recent figures are the least settled. March 2026 has three releases behind it and May 2026 has none; the reference months with the widest recorded movement are those with the most releases behind them, simply because they have had more chances to move. Reading the current revision of a recent month as its final value is the specific mistake this entry exists to make visible.
- One release is missing from the ordinary monthly rhythm and the issuer says why. The Release members skip from October 7, 2025 to December 11, 2025, and the cube's own footnote records that 'Due to technical difficulties, this table was not updated as planned on February 9, 2026.' Release members are numbered by the issuer's sequence, and no member is interpolated here to fill a gap.
Related on this site
- Big Question: Can Canada sell beyond the United States? →
- Brief: Canada's exports and the United States: the record break, and where the difference went →
- Receipt: Evidence summary for Canada's exports and the United States: the record break, and where the difference went →
- Domain: Federal Fiscal Capacity →
- More Resolution lineages →
- Sources & Method →
This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability.
This is the current public record for this lineage. See Work with Countability for a commissioned projection-resolution question.
Work with Countability