Resolution
Statistics CanadafiscalAwaiting settlementCurrent
What a first estimate of Canadian investment is worth: the capital expenditures survey's own release archive, 2015 through February 2026
Canada's first published number for a year's business investment appears in February of that year, before the year has happened. It comes from the Annual Capital and Repair Expenditures Survey, which asks organisations what they intend to spend; the figure is replaced a year later by a preliminary actual and a year after that by an actual. Table 34-10-0278-01 keeps every one of those publications as a separate Release member, so the intentions figure and the figure the same reference year carries today can be read side by side out of one table. This entry pins that path for national capital expenditures, all industries -- how far the first estimate stood from the settled one, in which direction, and how many publications it took to stop moving. It does not adjust any figure, does not derive a correction, and treats no revision as a statement about the issuer.
A Resolution record holds one institution's own published figures for a single, specific quantity — a projection, an estimate, or a measured record — across every vintage in which that institution restated it. Each time an issuer publishes a new budget, report, or release, an earlier figure does not disappear from the record; it is preserved exactly as it was first published, dated and cited, alongside the newer one. What is a Resolution record? →
Awaiting settlement. This lineage carries forward-looking positions its issuer published — projections, or scenarios modelled under stated assumptions. No settled outcome, meaning an audited result or a final release, stands against them yet; where an interim estimate exists it is labelled as one, row by row. A scenario is a conditional pathway under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
The lineage
| Vintage | Issuer | Published | Position | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Release member 13 of 13, the most recent release the table carries; reference years 2006 through 2026 | Statistics Canada | 2026-02-25 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-26 |
| Release member 12 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2025, with 2025 as that release's intentions year | Statistics Canada | 2025-02-26 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-26 |
| Release member 11 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2024, with 2024 as that release's intentions year | Statistics Canada | 2024-02-27 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-26 |
| Release member 10 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2023, with 2023 as that release's intentions year | Statistics Canada | 2023-02-28 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-26 |
| Release member 6 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2020, with 2020 as that release's intentions year | Statistics Canada | 2020-02-27 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-26 |
| Release member 7 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2020, the same range as the release before it | Statistics Canada | 2020-08-11 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-26 |
| Release member 5 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2019, with 2019 as that release's intentions year | Statistics Canada | 2019-02-28 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-26 |
| Vintage | Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Release member 5 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2019, with 2019 as that release's intentions year | Reference year 2019 as first published, 28 February 2019 -- an intentions figure for a year not yet spent | 252,060.7 CAD millions | projection | unaudited | as first published |
| Release member 13 of 13, the most recent release the table carries; reference years 2006 through 2026 | Reference year 2019 as it reads today, unchanged since February 2021 | 273,776.1 CAD millions | revised observation | unaudited | restated comparative |
| Release member 6 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2020, with 2020 as that release's intentions year | Reference year 2020 as first published, 27 February 2020 | 275,499.9 CAD millions | projection | unaudited | as first published |
| Release member 7 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2020, the same range as the release before it | Reference year 2020 at the August 2020 release, the only publication in the archive outside the February cycle | 242,634.5 CAD millions | revised observation | unaudited | restated comparative |
| Release member 13 of 13, the most recent release the table carries; reference years 2006 through 2026 | Reference year 2020 as it reads today, unchanged since February 2022 | 248,897.2 CAD millions | revised observation | unaudited | restated comparative |
| Release member 10 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2023, with 2023 as that release's intentions year | Reference year 2023 as first published, 28 February 2023 | 319,910.6 CAD millions | projection | unaudited | as first published |
| Release member 13 of 13, the most recent release the table carries; reference years 2006 through 2026 | Reference year 2023 as it reads today, unchanged since February 2025 | 352,337.5 CAD millions | revised observation | unaudited | restated comparative |
| Release member 13 of 13, the most recent release the table carries; reference years 2006 through 2026 | Reference year 2024 at its third annual publication, February 2026 | 369,367.0 CAD millions | revised observation | unaudited | restated comparative |
| Release member 11 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2024, with 2024 as that release's intentions year | Reference year 2024 as first published, 27 February 2024 | 353,885.7 CAD millions | projection | unaudited | as first published |
| Release member 12 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2025, with 2025 as that release's intentions year | Reference year 2025 as first published, 26 February 2025 | 388,558.7 CAD millions | projection | unaudited | as first published |
| Release member 13 of 13, the most recent release the table carries; reference years 2006 through 2026 | Reference year 2026 as first published, 25 February 2026 -- the newest figure in the table, and the least settled | 401,203.0 CAD millions | projection | unaudited | as first published |
Movement between vintages
A record, not a ranking: this entry states what was published and how it compares to what followed. It never says who was right, which institution performed better, or grades a forecaster's competence.
| Comparison | Compared vintages | Movement | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reference year 2019: the intentions figure against the figure that settled | Release member 5 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2019, with 2019 as that release's intentions year (projection 252,060.7 CAD millions) vs. Release member 13 of 13, the most recent release the table carries; reference years 2006 through 2026 (revised observation 273,776.1 CAD millions) | +21,715.4 CAD millions | same issuer |
| Reference year 2020: the largest downward movement in the archive | Release member 6 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2020, with 2020 as that release's intentions year (projection 275,499.9 CAD millions) vs. Release member 13 of 13, the most recent release the table carries; reference years 2006 through 2026 (revised observation 248,897.2 CAD millions) | -26,602.7 CAD millions | same issuer |
| Reference year 2020: what changed at the one release outside the February cycle | Release member 6 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2020, with 2020 as that release's intentions year (projection 275,499.9 CAD millions) vs. Release member 7 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2020, the same range as the release before it (revised observation 242,634.5 CAD millions) | -32,865.4 CAD millions | same issuer |
| Reference year 2023: the largest upward movement in the archive | Release member 10 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2023, with 2023 as that release's intentions year (projection 319,910.6 CAD millions) vs. Release member 13 of 13, the most recent release the table carries; reference years 2006 through 2026 (revised observation 352,337.5 CAD millions) | +32,426.9 CAD millions | same issuer |
| Reference year 2024: the intentions figure against its third annual publication | Release member 11 of 13; reference years 2006 through 2024, with 2024 as that release's intentions year (projection 353,885.7 CAD millions) vs. Release member 13 of 13, the most recent release the table carries; reference years 2006 through 2026 (revised observation 369,367.0 CAD millions) | +15,481.3 CAD millions | same issuer |
Evidence qualifications (6)
- This survey is not the national accounts. Table 34-10-0278-01 is the release archive of the Annual Capital and Repair Expenditures Survey, which measures capital expenditures on non-residential tangible assets. It is a different instrument from the quarterly national-accounts business investment series the Capital Behind Each Worker Brief reads elsewhere, and the two are never merged, differenced, or substituted here. What this archive supports is a statement about how much a first published estimate of Canadian investment moves -- not a restatement of any national-accounts figure.
- The national-accounts investment series has no release archive at all. Statistics Canada publishes real-time release tables for some programmes and not others; there is none for the quarterly business gross fixed capital formation series, so the revision behaviour recorded here cannot be checked against that series and is not claimed to describe it.
- There is no correction factor here, and none can be derived from this entry. Across the nine reference years whose complete path this archive holds -- 2015 through 2023, each first published as an in-year intentions figure -- five settled above their first estimate and four below, and the mean movement in absolute terms is 5.8 per cent. A first estimate cannot be adjusted toward its settled value by any fixed amount or direction the record supports.
- A reference year settles at its third annual publication, on the evidence of nine years and no counterexample. In all nine completed cases the value carried at the February release two years after the reference year is the value the year still carries at February 2026. Reference year 2024 reached that publication in February 2026 and reference year 2025 has not; both are recorded as positions, not as outcomes.
- Eight reference years in the table never move because their whole path predates the archive. Release member 5 (February 28, 2019) backfills reference years 2006 through 2013, and every later release carries them identically. Their stability is a property of when the archive opens, not evidence that early estimates of those years were close to their settled values.
- Every figure here is unaudited, and the cube's own quality footnote applies. The table publishes letter-graded quality indicators from A (Excellent) to F (Too unreliable to be published) and records that a greater number of data points have been suppressed for confidentiality from reference year 2013; the national all-industries coordinate this entry reads is populated at every reference year in the archive, and no suppressed cell is filled in or worked around.
Latest source: What a first estimate of Canadian investment is worth: the capital expenditures survey's own release archive, 2015 through February 2026 · accessed 2026-07-26
Related on this site
- Big Question: Is Canada rebuilding the capital behind each worker? →
- Brief: The capital behind each worker: the investment record, and the productivity record beside it →
- Receipt: Evidence summary for The capital behind each worker: the investment record, and the productivity record beside it →
- Domain: Federal Fiscal Capacity →
- More Resolution lineages →
- Sources & Method →
A record, not a ranking: this entry states what was published and how it compares to what followed. It never says who was right, which institution performed better, or grades a forecaster's competence.
This is the current public record for this lineage. See Work with Countability for a commissioned projection-resolution question.
Work with Countability