IMM · Domain snapshot

Immigration & Population

This domain tracks Canada's permanent and temporary migration flows — admissions, permits, asylum claims — against the demographic record, and derives cautious, source-cited pressure signals for labour, housing, and the economy. Statistics Canada first, IRCC second; every derived number shows its formula.

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Data version used for this page: report period 2026-05, published 2026-09-09 (v0.21.0). This is when Countability last published a new version of its record — one date for the whole site. It is not the date any individual figure below was last measured or published by its source; those dates are shown with each figure, because they differ series by series and, on this domain, may differ from each other.

Current snapshot

Population growth, % y/y
−0.45%
−1.9 pp vs 4 quarters earlier
10-year average: +1.49% (mean of the series' most recent 40 observations)
Reference period: 2026 Q2

Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.

PR admissions, trailing 12 months
371,240
−15.6% vs 12 months earlier (was 440,105)
10-year average: 360,354 (mean of the series' most recent 120 observations)
Reference period: May 2026

Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.

Read this figure carefully

IRCC monthly counts are rounded to the nearest 5 and labelled 'not for calculations'; totals are approximate and cross-checked against StatsCan demographic estimates.

Non-permanent residents, share of population
6.2%
−1.2 pp vs 4 quarters earlier
5-year average: 5.8% (mean of the series' most recent 20 observations)
Reference period: 2026 Q2

Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.

Natural increase (births − deaths), quarterly
-155
-1,138 vs 4 quarters earlier
10-year average: 14,820 (mean of the series' most recent 40 observations)
Reference period: 2026 Q1

Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.

Read this figure carefully

births minus deaths, same quarter, same table; a component of population growth alongside net international migration

Median age, July 1
40.6
+0.7% vs 1 year earlier (was 40.3)
10-year average: 40.7 (mean of the series' most recent 10 observations)
Reference period: 2025

Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.

Persons 65+ per 100 aged 15–64
29.7%
+0.9 pp vs 1 year earlier
10-year average: 27.2% (mean of the series' most recent 10 observations)
Reference period: 2025

Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.

Read this figure carefully

persons 65 and older per 100 persons aged 15-64, July 1 estimates

Alberta net interprovincial inflow, quarterly
6,006
−10.3% vs 4 quarters earlier (was 6,693)
10-year average: 2,456 (mean of the series' most recent 40 observations)
Reference period: 2026 Q1

Countability last verified this source’s licence on 2026-07-10.

Read this figure carefully

net of in- and out-migrants between provinces; interprovincial migration nets to zero nationally

population: 2026 Q2 ircc pr: May 2026 natural increase: 2026 Q1 age structure: 2025

Time-series evidence

Permanent admissions per year, 1946 → present

483,65464,12719462025

1946 → 2025 · Statistics Canada — Components of international migration, quarterly

View the data table for Permanent admissions per year, 1946 → present (80 points)
PeriodValue
194671,719
194764,127
1948125,414
194995,217
195073,912
1951194,391
1952164,498
1953168,868
1954154,227
1955109,946
1956164,857
1957282,164
1958124,851
1959106,928
1960104,111
196171,689
196274,586
196393,151
1964112,606
1965146,758
1966194,743
1967222,876
1968183,974
1969161,531
1970147,713
1971121,900
1972122,006
1973184,200
1974218,465
1975187,881
1976149,429
1977114,914
197886,313
1979112,096
1980143,498
1981128,794
1982121,331
198389,377
198488,599
198584,339
198699,343
1987152,031
1988161,534
1989191,516
1990216,424
1991232,776
1992254,856
1993256,754
1994224,395
1995212,875
1996226,061
1997216,034
1998174,184
1999189,971
2000227,429
2001250,638
2002229,049
2003221,349
2004235,859
2005262,246
2006251,649
2007236,763
2008247,262
2009252,218
2010280,739
2011248,735
2012257,825
2013259,046
2014260,308
2015271,867
2016296,385
2017286,537
2018321,054
2019341,174
2020184,594
2021406,046
2022437,612
2023471,817
2024483,654
2025393,752

Non-permanent residents: gross inflows vs outflows per quarter

InflowsOutflows
432,20372,5552021 Q32026 Q1

2021 Q3 → 2026 Q1 · Statistics Canada — Components of international migration, quarterly

View the data table for Non-permanent residents: gross inflows vs outflows per quarter (19 periods × 2 series)
PeriodInflowsOutflows
2021 Q3224,022143,273
2021 Q4130,322159,220
2022 Q1131,48397,399
2022 Q2211,33572,555
2022 Q3322,370108,107
2022 Q4248,67297,088
2023 Q1214,441113,954
2023 Q2282,11876,927
2023 Q3432,203118,144
2023 Q4294,518125,149
2024 Q1274,625112,733
2024 Q2250,307114,552
2024 Q3270,287160,326
2024 Q4149,705160,707
2025 Q1115,837171,031
2025 Q2140,331199,050
2025 Q3163,026339,505
2025 Q477,084248,380
2026 Q181,380199,259

Births vs deaths per quarter — the other engine of population change

BirthsDeaths
107,07946,0121990 Q12026 Q1

1990 Q1 → 2026 Q1 · Statistics Canada — Estimates of the components of natural increase, quarterly

View the data table for Births vs deaths per quarter — the other engine of population change (145 periods × 2 series)
PeriodBirthsDeaths
1990 Q198,53050,625
1990 Q2107,07946,662
1990 Q3104,62446,012
1990 Q495,25348,674
1991 Q197,19149,928
1991 Q2105,86147,825
1991 Q3103,80946,329
1991 Q495,67251,487
1992 Q198,48051,436
1992 Q2105,14647,715
1992 Q3101,83246,890
1992 Q493,18550,494
1993 Q194,80154,204
1993 Q2102,36350,220
1993 Q399,85548,135
1993 Q491,37552,353
1994 Q193,55355,849
1994 Q2101,37650,127
1994 Q399,23548,607
1994 Q490,95052,494
1995 Q192,45256,323
1995 Q299,36151,965
1995 Q398,61549,219
1995 Q487,58853,226
1996 Q190,01355,962
1996 Q296,23751,359
1996 Q394,64049,897
1996 Q485,31055,662
1997 Q184,96859,109
1997 Q292,39552,553
1997 Q389,50049,686
1997 Q481,73554,321
1998 Q183,42461,737
1998 Q290,46451,944
1998 Q388,88149,947
1998 Q479,64954,463
1999 Q181,89061,232
1999 Q287,87551,990
1999 Q387,77250,205
1999 Q479,71256,103
2000 Q182,62759,012
2000 Q286,80151,909
2000 Q383,17351,192
2000 Q475,28155,949
2001 Q181,53158,076
2001 Q287,50254,103
2001 Q386,37052,237
2001 Q479,21255,534
2002 Q179,56858,866
2002 Q283,98154,210
2002 Q386,89453,558
2002 Q479,45157,369
2003 Q179,53858,436
2003 Q285,75754,891
2003 Q389,15553,505
2003 Q481,90259,753
2004 Q182,00161,106
2004 Q286,29354,892
2004 Q388,50052,837
2004 Q482,21857,996
2005 Q181,96463,195
2005 Q289,15156,183
2005 Q391,21553,569
2005 Q483,03557,614
2006 Q184,30058,936
2006 Q290,61255,796
2006 Q395,19254,329
2006 Q487,81759,472
2007 Q186,94863,508
2007 Q293,97856,884
2007 Q398,10555,089
2007 Q491,33859,941
2008 Q191,10662,898
2008 Q296,44358,768
2008 Q3101,56255,686
2008 Q492,74961,383
2009 Q191,47762,679
2009 Q297,46958,148
2009 Q3102,28655,959
2009 Q493,41961,870
2010 Q190,81661,206
2010 Q295,63858,295
2010 Q399,34657,782
2010 Q493,39162,970
2011 Q189,91365,348
2011 Q296,01559,567
2011 Q3101,06957,272
2011 Q492,24761,518
2012 Q191,42364,103
2012 Q295,59659,776
2012 Q3101,53158,418
2012 Q494,55164,598
2013 Q191,02368,169
2013 Q295,50460,680
2013 Q3101,04559,027
2013 Q493,48264,547
2014 Q191,52666,905
2014 Q296,82462,643
2014 Q3102,61460,902
2014 Q493,61368,449
2015 Q190,78973,200
2015 Q296,82363,762
2015 Q3101,90661,009
2015 Q493,46166,554
2016 Q192,15269,974
2016 Q296,78164,741
2016 Q3102,75562,973
2016 Q492,33569,876
2017 Q190,12175,303
2017 Q295,34366,365
2017 Q3100,34464,953
2017 Q492,27871,936
2018 Q189,42178,450
2018 Q295,12068,600
2018 Q399,39966,304
2018 Q491,08872,600
2019 Q188,44474,728
2019 Q294,37669,516
2019 Q399,97767,055
2019 Q490,63274,285
2020 Q188,75776,920
2020 Q291,95578,935
2020 Q395,04170,848
2020 Q485,46181,988
2021 Q187,01980,046
2021 Q295,04274,415
2021 Q399,85175,225
2021 Q490,71583,161
2022 Q184,22488,170
2022 Q289,65978,323
2022 Q394,42979,909
2022 Q486,90290,616
2023 Q182,95584,042
2023 Q288,39077,882
2023 Q392,97577,102
2023 Q488,91687,856
2024 Q188,01386,544
2024 Q291,86678,994
2024 Q396,02778,582
2024 Q489,83687,439
2025 Q189,94588,962
2025 Q293,12079,716
2025 Q398,13780,537
2025 Q490,17190,952
2026 Q190,17390,328

Net interprovincial migration, four largest provinces

OntarioQuebecAlbertaBritish Columbia
16,729-15,0682000 Q12026 Q1

2000 Q1 → 2026 Q1 · Statistics Canada — Estimates of the components of interprovincial migration, quarterly

View the data table for Net interprovincial migration, four largest provinces (105 periods × 4 series)
PeriodOntarioQuebecAlbertaBritish Columbia
2000 Q16,371-3,0546,752-4,599
2000 Q28,279-4,0267,111-5,266
2000 Q36,066-3,2784,832-2,095
2000 Q42,576-8755,702-2,823
2001 Q14,047-1,6184,493-1,537
2001 Q25,934-3,6715,430-1,831
2001 Q31,644-1,6328,361-1,873
2001 Q4-125-1685,349-1,787
2002 Q13,130-1,0455,378-2,272
2002 Q2705-1,5057,147-2,624
2002 Q31,237-1,2415,288153
2002 Q4-1,0346961,783298
2003 Q1485-3483,159-1,460
2003 Q2-51-9361,673-28
2003 Q3-3,3249783,0192,830
2003 Q4-2,012851,6781,683
2004 Q1-905-2973,192310
2004 Q2-694-1,5882,7173,042
2004 Q3-4,002-4608,7792,378
2004 Q4-3,628-6276,1892,055
2005 Q1-1,748-8288,2901,055
2005 Q2-1,794-3,04811,1652,726
2005 Q3-4,723-1,40710,1433,172
2005 Q4-5,248-1,87313,820259
2006 Q1-4,056-2,13112,3201,883
2006 Q2-3,474-4,0009,5123,486
2006 Q3-8,454-3,26816,7293,919
2006 Q4-5,957-2,4297,6783,511
2007 Q1-2,185-2,5034,7253,238
2007 Q2-3,451-4,6654,6774,337
2007 Q3-4,202-3,5162,2056,127
2007 Q4-3,588-1,9912,0353,074
2008 Q1-3,458-1,7763,8622,627
2008 Q2-3,502-4,3997,2152,815
2008 Q3-2,928-2,0862,6573,212
2008 Q4-5,253-1,4464,1112,195
2009 Q1-4,157-1,4394,6851,471
2009 Q2-3,263-2,4481,7313,117
2009 Q3-1,288-375-2,0203,036
2009 Q4-52515-2,2022,048
2010 Q1-1,396-1,2051481,613
2010 Q2-1,453-1,6938032,031
2010 Q3890-711-11,463
2010 Q4-1,950-7391,3301,105
2011 Q1-1,003-1,1443,160780
2011 Q2-1,944-2,1693,95473
2011 Q3-834-9713,958-576
2011 Q4-1,961-1,4564,896434
2012 Q1-3,342-2,23810,431-1,789
2012 Q2-4,474-2,2508,367-780
2012 Q3-3,692-2,5129,785-595
2012 Q4-1,630-1,9757,704-1,158
2013 Q1-4,571-1,5549,746-383
2013 Q2-4,008-4,39011,363268
2013 Q3-2,062-4,73610,2341,822
2013 Q4-1,346-2,6665,487807
2014 Q1-4,341-2,2468,7681,723
2014 Q2-6,815-4,66410,8935,123
2014 Q3-1,299-5,4526,3865,594
2014 Q4-2,186-2,1413,0763,419
2015 Q1-3,275-2,7096,4824,492
2015 Q2-1,935-5,8405,6506,874
2015 Q31,911-3,580-1,9977,183
2015 Q41,326-2,071-2,7114,278
2016 Q11,611-1,248-4,3905,939
2016 Q24,229-4,219-6,0109,173
2016 Q37,651-3,546-4,5664,757
2016 Q42,249-1,579-2,8643,720
2017 Q1233-441-3,0794,291
2017 Q23,249-2,561-5,0506,066
2017 Q34,989-2,196-1,2742,728
2017 Q42,487-802-1,0112,211
2018 Q11,782-519-1722,737
2018 Q2686-2,176-7906,313
2018 Q35,107-2,061-2411,872
2018 Q42,042-1,344581,794
2019 Q185-3411423,528
2019 Q2-605-382-1,9916,131
2019 Q34,396-1,749712,319
2019 Q4823-5907082,287
2020 Q1-1,612-5578953,875
2020 Q2-813-1,540-4,0518,518
2020 Q3-21-1,250-6343,266
2020 Q4-386-1,256-1,4293,651
2021 Q1-6,225-446-3,0266,992
2021 Q2-11,7738-4,36911,467
2021 Q3-3,209-2,5672467,878
2021 Q4-4,325-1,4187484,710
2022 Q1-8,592-4701,3005,022
2022 Q2-14,892-2,0743,3528,459
2022 Q3-5,891-3,35113,160-2,138
2022 Q4-3,912-2,8127,775-18
2023 Q1-9,776-1,7189,7722,068
2023 Q2-10,151-2,4528,7013,476
2023 Q3-9,391-2,43616,514-3,187
2023 Q4-5,528-2,2959,376-1,639
2024 Q1-12,702-1,14111,525-771
2024 Q2-15,068-87810,9791,470
2024 Q3-4,223-25710,265-2,176
2024 Q4-2,082-1,0934,993-660
2025 Q1-5,320-1,2396,693-1,234
2025 Q2-6,154-2,5066,1871,678
2025 Q3-972-2,2685,6521,504
2025 Q4-1,598-1,5793,6841,227
2026 Q1-5,774-1,8716,0061,581

Age structure of the population, July 1 (% of population)

0-1415-6465+
69.5%8.0%19712025

1971 → 2025 · Statistics Canada — Population estimates on July 1, by age and gender, annual

View the data table for Age structure of the population, July 1 (% of population) (55 periods × 3 series)
Period0-1415-6465+
197129.3%62.7%8.0%
197228.5%63.3%8.1%
197327.7%64.0%8.2%
197426.9%64.7%8.3%
197526.2%65.4%8.5%
197625.4%66.0%8.6%
197724.7%66.5%8.8%
197824.0%67.0%9.0%
197923.3%67.5%9.2%
198022.7%67.9%9.4%
198122.3%68.1%9.6%
198222.0%68.3%9.7%
198321.8%68.4%9.9%
198421.6%68.4%10.0%
198521.3%68.5%10.2%
198621.0%68.5%10.5%
198720.9%68.4%10.7%
198820.8%68.3%10.9%
198920.7%68.2%11.1%
199020.7%68.0%11.3%
199120.7%67.9%11.5%
199220.7%67.7%11.6%
199320.7%67.6%11.7%
199420.6%67.6%11.8%
199520.4%67.6%12.0%
199620.2%67.7%12.1%
199720.0%67.8%12.2%
199819.8%67.9%12.3%
199919.5%68.1%12.5%
200019.2%68.3%12.6%
200118.9%68.5%12.6%
200218.6%68.7%12.7%
200318.3%68.9%12.8%
200418.0%69.0%12.9%
200517.7%69.3%13.1%
200617.3%69.4%13.3%
200717.1%69.5%13.4%
200816.9%69.4%13.7%
200916.7%69.4%13.9%
201016.5%69.3%14.1%
201116.4%69.2%14.4%
201216.3%68.8%14.8%
201316.3%68.5%15.3%
201416.2%68.1%15.6%
201516.2%67.7%16.0%
201616.2%67.4%16.4%
201716.2%67.0%16.8%
201816.2%66.7%17.1%
201916.1%66.4%17.5%
202016.0%66.1%17.9%
202115.9%65.6%18.4%
202215.7%65.5%18.7%
202315.4%65.7%18.9%
202415.2%65.8%19.0%
202515.0%65.5%19.5%

What this means together

Net interprovincial migration diverged across four provinces.

Four provinces show a persistent pattern in net interprovincial migration — the number of people moving to a province from elsewhere in Canada, minus the number leaving it. Ontario and Quebec have each recorded a long, unbroken run of net outflows to other provinces; Alberta a comparably long run of net inflows. British Columbia's net flow underwent a separately-detected level shift earlier in the record. This describes only the pattern of movement, not its causes, and covers these four provinces only — not a claim about every province and territory.

OBSERVED

Ontario net interprovincial migration, quarterly: 25 consecutive quarters at a negative level

Ontario net interprovincial migration, quarterly has been negative for 25 consecutive quarters, beginning in 2020 Q1. The latest reading is -5,774 in 2026 Q1. A streak counts consecutive periods in one direction; it carries no causal claim and does not imply the run will continue.

Technical details
Method: Count consecutive quarters with a negative level, most recent backward; reported only from 6 consecutive quarters onward.
OBSERVED

Alberta net interprovincial migration, quarterly: 19 consecutive quarters at a positive level

Alberta net interprovincial migration, quarterly has been positive for 19 consecutive quarters, beginning in 2021 Q3. The latest reading is 6,006 in 2026 Q1. A streak counts consecutive periods in one direction; it carries no causal claim and does not imply the run will continue.

Technical details
Method: Count consecutive quarters with a positive level, most recent backward; reported only from 6 consecutive quarters onward.
OBSERVED

British Columbia net interprovincial migration, quarterly: level shift detected around 2022 Q3

A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 quarters places the largest level shift in british columbia net interprovincial migration, quarterly around 2022 Q3: mean 4,951 before vs 79 after (shift = 2.0× pooled variability). The detector locates the shift; it does not attribute a cause.

Technical details
Method: Deterministic two-segment mean-shift scan; break where |Δmean|/pooled sd ≥ 1.5 with ≥8 periods per segment.
OBSERVED

Quebec net interprovincial migration, quarterly: 19 consecutive quarters at a negative level

Quebec net interprovincial migration, quarterly has been negative for 19 consecutive quarters, beginning in 2021 Q3. The latest reading is -1,871 in 2026 Q1. A streak counts consecutive periods in one direction; it carries no causal claim and does not imply the run will continue.

Technical details
Method: Count consecutive quarters with a negative level, most recent backward; reported only from 6 consecutive quarters onward.

What the record says about this domain

Findings

INFERRED

NPR share 6.18% vs the sub-5% end-2027 target: on a straight-line pace

The government's 2026-2028 Levels Plan commits to a temporary population below 5% of Canada's population by end-2027. On 2026-04-01 the NPR share was 6.18% (StatsCan basis), vs 6.85% at the start of the plan period. A straight line from 6.85% (2025 Q4) to 5.0% (end 2027) passes through 6.44% today; the observed share is at or below that line. The straight-line path is Countability's measurement convention — IRCC stated only the endpoint. IRCC's 'temporary population' concept and StatsCan's NPR estimate differ at the margin; the StatsCan basis is used consistently.

Technical details
Method: Linear glidepath from the 2025-10-01 NPR share to 5.0% at 2028-01-01; on pace if latest share ≤ glidepath value. Target from IRCC Levels Plan 2026-2028.
OBSERVED

Net non-permanent resident change negative for 6 consecutive quarters

The net change in non-permanent residents was -117,879 in 2026 Q1, the 6th consecutive negative quarter. The NPR population was 2,558,562 on 2026-04-01 (6.18% of Canada's population), down from its peak.

Technical details
Method: Count consecutive quarters with net NPR change < 0, most recent backward.

Registered commitments

On pace

Reduce Canada's temporary population to less than 5% of the total population by the end of 2027

Issuer: Government of Canada (IRCC, 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan). Stated in 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, supplementary information.

Latest observed: 6.18 (2026 Q2) against target 5.

Source: Issuer publication · accessed 2026-07-07
Behind pace

Stabilize permanent resident admissions at 380,000 per year for 2026-2028

Issuer: Government of Canada (IRCC, 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan). Stated in 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan.

Latest observed: 146,810 (5 months to May 2026) against target 380,000.

Source: Issuer publication · accessed 2026-07-07
No pace verdict

New temporary resident arrivals of 385,000 in 2026 (370,000 in 2027 and 2028)

Issuer: Government of Canada (IRCC, 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan). Stated in 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan.

Latest observed: against target 385,000.

Source: Issuer publication · accessed 2026-07-07

Evidence gaps

Evidence gap

Are temporary residents actually leaving at the rate the 2026-2028 Levels Plan assumes?

What is missing: Canada has no direct public measure of temporary-resident departures. Net NPR change (StatsCan 17-10-0040/17-10-0121) reflects arrivals minus departures plus status transitions; departures are not separately published.

Consequence: The Levels Plan's path to a sub-5% temporary population depends on exits that cannot be directly verified from public data. NPR stock and share can be tracked (and are); the departure mechanism cannot be decomposed.

What would close it: Publication of exit/departure estimates or permit-expiry cohort outcomes by IRCC or StatsCan.
Evidence gap

Is the 385,000 new-temporary-resident-arrivals target for 2026 being met?

What is missing: No held public series measures the plan's 'new arrivals' concept. IRCC monthly permit flows count documents becoming effective (including renewals and in-Canada transitions); StatsCan net-NPR change nets out departures.

Consequence: The arrivals target is published as a registered target without a compliance claim; permit flows are shown as labelled proxies only.

What would close it: IRCC publication of new-arrival counts on the levels-plan definition.
Evidence gap

How many hearings does Canada's refugee board have scheduled against its pending caseload?

What is missing: The Immigration and Refugee Board publishes decision outputs and pending counts, but no located public series states hearings held or hearings scheduled. The one externally set standard a claims register could test -- the regulation-set timeline for claim referral -- cannot be checked because the connecting series (hearings against pending inventory) is not published on any cadence.

Consequence: The board's throughput can be read only after the fact, from decisions; the forward relationship between its scheduled capacity and its pending inventory is not publicly measurable. Backlog commentary therefore runs on totals and averages that cannot be decomposed into the board's own scheduling reality.

What would close it: The board (or its administrative-tribunal service) publishing hearings-held and hearings-scheduled series on a stated cadence, at any grain from national totals down.

How to read the dates on this page

Data version
When Countability last published a new version of its record. One date for every page on this site, shown in the box above.
Reference period
The period a specific figure or chart point actually measures — a quarter, a month, or a year, as the source series is published. This is what "as of" means everywhere on this page, and it varies figure by figure.
Source licence verified
Where shown, the date Countability last read that source’s licence terms word for word — not when the source itself last published. Where a source date is unavailable, none is shown rather than guessed.

How to read the clock →

Full method, evidence tiers, and licence attribution: Sources & Method.

Related on this site

Big Question · absorbing growth →Monitor · canadian capacity monitor →

Other domains

HSG · Housing →LAB · Labour →FSC · Federal Fiscal Capacity →PFC · Provincial Fiscal Capacity →CLM · Climate →DEF · Defence & Security →HLT · Health →INF · Infrastructure Delivery →BIZ · Business Dynamism & Credit →

This snapshot is a curated sample of Countability’s method, applied to this domain. See Work with Countability for a commissioned question this page does not yet cover.

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