Statistics Canada's own December 2025 real GDP estimate, across four release vintages
Canada's real gross domestic product at basic prices, all industries, chained (2017) dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, for the reference month of December 2025 (table 36-10-0491) -- as Statistics Canada itself published it, then revised it, across four successive monthly releases of the same real-time table.
A Resolution record follows one institution's figures for a defined quantity. It may contain projections, estimates or measured observations. Each version held here keeps its publication date and source, so a newer figure does not erase the earlier one. What is a Resolution record? →
Maintained record. This page preserves successive versions of an official record. It makes no projection and awaits no forecast verdict. Revisions remain visible, and provisional figures retain that status.
The lineage
| Vintage | Issuer | Published | Position | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Statistics Canada | 2026-02-27 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-09 |
| 2026-03-31 | Statistics Canada | 2026-03-31 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-09 |
| 2026-04-30 | Statistics Canada | 2026-04-30 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-09 |
| 2026-05-29 | Statistics Canada | 2026-05-29 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-09 |
| Vintage | Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | December 2025 | 2,339,127,000,000.0 dollars | preliminary observation | — | — |
| 2026-03-31 | December 2025 | 2,341,221,000,000.0 dollars | revised observation | — | — |
| 2026-04-30 | December 2025 | 2,341,210,000,000.0 dollars | revised observation | — | — |
| 2026-05-29 | December 2025 | 2,339,771,000,000.0 dollars | revised observation | — | — |
Movement between vintages
This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability.
| Comparison | Compared vintages | Movement | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 2025, first release vs. second release | 2026-02-27 (preliminary observation 2,339,127,000,000.0 dollars) vs. 2026-03-31 (revised observation 2,341,221,000,000.0 dollars) | +2,094,000,000.0 dollars | same issuer |
| December 2025, second release vs. third release | 2026-03-31 (revised observation 2,341,221,000,000.0 dollars) vs. 2026-04-30 (revised observation 2,341,210,000,000.0 dollars) | -11,000,000.0 dollars | same issuer |
| December 2025, third release vs. fourth release | 2026-04-30 (revised observation 2,341,210,000,000.0 dollars) vs. 2026-05-29 (revised observation 2,339,771,000,000.0 dollars) | -1,439,000,000.0 dollars | same issuer |
| December 2025, first published estimate vs. latest captured revision | 2026-02-27 (preliminary observation 2,339,127,000,000.0 dollars) vs. 2026-05-29 (revised observation 2,339,771,000,000.0 dollars) | +644,000,000.0 dollars | same issuer |
Evidence qualifications (7)
- This entry compares Statistics Canada against itself: the same table, the same reference month, four successive monthly releases of the same real-time cube. It is a revision record, not a disagreement between institutions -- the pace at which one issuer's own estimate settles as more source data arrives -- the platform's own Statistics Canada reconnaissance names this as a distinct, previously unnamed thing: 'an issuer's own number changed, and here is by how much'.
- Real GDP at basic prices, by industry (table 36-10-0491) is a distinct measure from the expenditure-based real GDP (table 36-10-0104) this platform's own fiscal indicators and the companion Bank of Canada GDP-projections lineage in this register use. The two are not interchangeable and this entry does not equate them.
- This example was not chosen for a dramatic miss. The four-vintage revision path for December 2025 is small (a cumulative +0.03% from first publication to the most recent release captured here) and non-monotonic (up, essentially flat, then down) -- an honest test of the schema's point-geometry and same-issuer resolution structure, not a selected outlier.
- Not filed under any existing Open Question or Framework: the platform's six live Questions concern fiscal anchors, housing supply, labour weakening, population versus housing, unverifiable commitments, and climate targets -- none asks about the revision behaviour of an official estimate itself, so none is claimed here rather than force a false membership. This entry is filed under the registered forecast-record question on the strength of the platform's own Statistics Canada reconnaissance argument: interpreting a forecast's accuracy requires knowing which vintage of the actual it is being read against, and a revision record like this one is that vintage record for one series.
- The 2026-05-29 release is the most recent this entry captures, not a final or audited figure. If Statistics Canada revises December 2025 again in a later release, that release becomes a new, fifth publication in this entry's chain -- nothing here is edited in place.
- This entry is filed under the fiscal domain, the closest existing one; it concerns Canada's aggregate real GDP, not a fiscal-anchor compliance measure specifically, and no Domain #6 is created to hold it more precisely.
- Added 2026-08-18: a companion entry, "Statistics Canada's own monthly GDP estimates, across eleven years of release vintages", traces the same table across its whole vintage record rather than one recent month. The two do not restate each other and are not in tension where they differ. This entry preserves four consecutive vintages of December 2025 in dollar levels; the companion works in month-over-month percentage change, because levels are not comparable across the two rebasings inside the longer record. They also rest on separate archive captures of the table, taken for different questions, so each carries its own preserved bytes.
Related on this site
- Big Question: How often do official forecasts come true? →
- Domain: Federal Fiscal Capacity →
- More Resolution lineages →
- Sources & Method →
This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability.
This is the current public record for this lineage. See Work with Countability for a commissioned projection-resolution question.
Work with Countability