The federal deficit for fiscal 2026–27, as each official document projected it
Canada's federal budgetary balance for fiscal 2026-27, and as a second period fiscal 2027-28, as the Department of Finance Canada projected it in Budget 2025, the Spring Economic Update 2026 and Budget 2026, each read from that publication's Annex 1 table, with the Parliamentary Budget Officer's October 2026 outlook shown beside them as a separate issuer and never merged. No audited outcome exists yet: Public Accounts of Canada 2027, expected in the fall of 2027, will settle fiscal 2026-27.
On this page
A Resolution record follows one institution's figures for a defined quantity. It may contain projections, estimates or measured observations. Each version held here keeps its publication date and source, so a newer figure does not erase the earlier one. What is a Resolution record? →
Awaiting settlement. This record contains forward-looking positions. No audited or final outcome has yet settled the projections; any interim estimate is identified below. Conditional scenarios describe pathways under stated assumptions and are not predictions.
The lineage
| Vintage | Issuer | Published | Position | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget 2025 | Department of Finance Canada | 2025-11-04 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-11-10 |
| Spring Economic Update 2026 | Department of Finance Canada | 2026-04-28 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-08-24 |
| Budget 2026 | Department of Finance Canada | 2026-11-05 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-11-10 |
| PBO outlook, October 2026 | Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer | 2026-10-20 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-11-10 |
| Vintage | Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget 2025 | Fiscal year 2026-27 | -65.4 billions of Canadian dollars | projection | — | — |
| Spring Economic Update 2026 | Fiscal year 2026-27 | -65.3 billions of Canadian dollars | projection | — | — |
| Budget 2026 | Fiscal year 2026-27 | -62.3 billions of Canadian dollars | projection | — | — |
| PBO outlook, October 2026 | Fiscal year 2026-27 | -63.3 billions of Canadian dollars | institutional estimate | — | — |
| Budget 2025 | Fiscal year 2027-28 | -63.5 billions of Canadian dollars | projection | — | — |
| Spring Economic Update 2026 | Fiscal year 2027-28 | -63.1 billions of Canadian dollars | projection | — | — |
| Budget 2026 | Fiscal year 2027-28 | -62.5 billions of Canadian dollars | projection | — | — |
| PBO outlook, October 2026 | Fiscal year 2027-28 | -70.2 billions of Canadian dollars | institutional estimate | — | — |
Comparisons
This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability.
| Comparison | Compared periods and editions | Difference (stated convention) | Basis and convention |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal year 2026-27: Budget 2025 vs. Spring Economic Update 2026 | Fiscal year 2026-27 · edition: Budget 2025 (projection -65.4 billions of Canadian dollars) vs. Fiscal year 2026-27 · edition: Spring Economic Update 2026 (projection -65.3 billions of Canadian dollars) | +0.1 billions of Canadian dollars | same issuer. Later published figure minus the earlier one, in billions of Canadian dollars, same issuer, same Public Accounts basis and fiscal year. No forecast ranking or causal inference. |
| Fiscal year 2026-27: Spring Economic Update 2026 vs. Budget 2026 | Fiscal year 2026-27 · edition: Spring Economic Update 2026 (projection -65.3 billions of Canadian dollars) vs. Fiscal year 2026-27 · edition: Budget 2026 (projection -62.3 billions of Canadian dollars) | +3.0 billions of Canadian dollars | same issuer. Later published figure minus the earlier one, in billions of Canadian dollars, same issuer, same Public Accounts basis and fiscal year. No forecast ranking or causal inference. |
| Fiscal year 2026-27: PBO October 2026 shown beside Budget 2026 | Fiscal year 2026-27 · edition: Budget 2026 (projection -62.3 billions of Canadian dollars) vs. Fiscal year 2026-27 · edition: PBO outlook, October 2026 (institutional estimate -63.3 billions of Canadian dollars) | not comparable — The October 2026 PBO outlook excludes Budget 2026 measures and predates the audited fiscal 2025-26 result; it is a different issuer on a different information set, shown beside the government's projection and never merged. | cross-issuer. Shown side by side only; never differenced, averaged or merged. |
| Fiscal year 2027-28: Budget 2025 vs. Spring Economic Update 2026 | Fiscal year 2027-28 · edition: Budget 2025 (projection -63.5 billions of Canadian dollars) vs. Fiscal year 2027-28 · edition: Spring Economic Update 2026 (projection -63.1 billions of Canadian dollars) | +0.4 billions of Canadian dollars | same issuer. Later published figure minus the earlier one, in billions of Canadian dollars, same issuer, same Public Accounts basis and fiscal year. No forecast ranking or causal inference. |
| Fiscal year 2027-28: Spring Economic Update 2026 vs. Budget 2026 | Fiscal year 2027-28 · edition: Spring Economic Update 2026 (projection -63.1 billions of Canadian dollars) vs. Fiscal year 2027-28 · edition: Budget 2026 (projection -62.5 billions of Canadian dollars) | +0.6 billions of Canadian dollars | same issuer. Later published figure minus the earlier one, in billions of Canadian dollars, same issuer, same Public Accounts basis and fiscal year. No forecast ranking or causal inference. |
| Fiscal year 2027-28: PBO October 2026 shown beside Budget 2026 | Fiscal year 2027-28 · edition: Budget 2026 (projection -62.5 billions of Canadian dollars) vs. Fiscal year 2027-28 · edition: PBO outlook, October 2026 (institutional estimate -70.2 billions of Canadian dollars) | not comparable — The October 2026 PBO outlook excludes Budget 2026 measures and predates the audited fiscal 2025-26 result; it is a different issuer on a different information set, shown beside the government's projection and never merged. | cross-issuer. Shown side by side only; never differenced, averaged or merged. |
Evidence qualifications (4)
- These are projections, not outcomes. Same-issuer differences are disclosed arithmetic between dated publications on the Public Accounts basis; they rank no forecast and explain no change.
- The Parliamentary Budget Officer's October 2026 outlook was published before Budget 2026 and excludes Budget 2026 measures. It is shown beside the government's projections and is never averaged, merged or compared as if it were the same information set.
- Public Accounts of Canada 2027 will settle fiscal 2026-27; this record will add that audited value when it is tabled, expected in the fall of 2027.
- Values are taken from Budget 2025 Annex 1 and Spring Economic Update 2026 Annex 1 (Table A1.3), Budget 2026 Annex 1 (Table A1.4), and the PBO outlook (Table 3), each checked against a saved copy of the source.
Related on this site
- Big Question: Does the federal budget land where it was promised? →
- Big Question: How often do official forecasts come true? →
- Brief: Where the budget lands: the federal fiscal position, the promises against it, and what the audited record settles →
- Receipt: Evidence summary for Where the budget lands: the federal fiscal position, the promises against it, and what the audited record settles →
- Domain: Federal Fiscal Capacity →
- More Resolution lineages →
- Sources & Method →
This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability.
This is the current public record for this lineage. See Work with Countability for a commissioned projection-resolution question.
Work with Countability