Resolution
Environment and Climate Change CanadaclimateAwaiting settlementCurrent

Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the target-accounting basis: the 2005 base, the latest observed year, the government's own With Measures and With Additional Measures 2030/2035 projections, and the LULUCF accounting contribution that bridges the two

National greenhouse gas emissions on the accounting basis Canada's 2030/2035 targets and 2026 interim objective are assessed against -- the National Inventory Report's four-sector total (Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use, Agriculture, Waste), excluding net LULUCF flux, plus the separately calculated LULUCF accounting contribution (net-net accounting for most land categories; a reference-level approach for forest land remaining forest land and harvested wood products; natural disturbances excluded). Published as the Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators 'Greenhouse gas emissions projections' series, 2026 vintage (historical years sourced from the National Inventory Report 1990-2023, i.e. the NIR2025 edition). Also carries the LULUCF accounting-contribution series by year (the component that moves this basis away from the gross inventory total) and the government's own successive With Measures (WM) and With Additional Measures (WAM) 2030 scenario totals, including the itemized sector-level revision between the 2023 and 2025 progress-report vintages of the same WAM scenario.

A Resolution record follows one institution's figures for a defined quantity. It may contain projections, estimates or measured observations. Each version held here keeps its publication date and source, so a newer figure does not erase the earlier one. What is a Resolution record? →

Awaiting settlement. This record contains forward-looking positions. No audited or final outcome has yet settled the projections; any interim estimate is identified below. Conditional scenarios describe pathways under stated assumptions and are not predictions.

The lineage

VintageIssuerPublishedPositionSource
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basisEnvironment and Climate Change Canada2026-06-18currentSource → · accessed 2026-07-14
CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Measures scenarioEnvironment and Climate Change Canada2026-06-18currentSource → · accessed 2026-07-14
CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Additional Measures scenarioEnvironment and Climate Change Canada2026-06-18currentSource → · accessed 2026-07-14
EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05)Environment and Climate Change Canada2025-12-17currentSource → · accessed 2026-07-21
EPR2025 report Table 3 (files updated 2026-06-05)Environment and Climate Change Canada2025-12-17currentSource → · accessed 2026-07-21
VintagePeriodValueRoleAssuranceBasis
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2005 (target base year)759.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2006752.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2007778.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2008760.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2009700.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2010738.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2011755.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2012742.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2013747.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2014721.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2015746.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2016715.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2017719.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2018730.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2019 (last pre-pandemic year)722.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2020 (pandemic-shock year)660.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2021665.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2022709.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / NIR2025 historical basis2023 (latest observed year on the target-accounting basis)655.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Measures scenario2026 (With Measures scenario, tests the 2026 interim objective)635.0 Mt CO2escenario——
CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Additional Measures scenario2026 (With Additional Measures scenario, tests the 2026 interim objective)636.0 Mt CO2escenario——
CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Measures scenario2030 (With Measures scenario)600.0 Mt CO2escenario——
CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Additional Measures scenario2030 (With Additional Measures scenario)546.0 Mt CO2escenario——
EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05)2005 (accounting contribution, by construction the base-year reference)0.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05)2019 (accounting contribution)-25.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05)2020 (accounting contribution)-23.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05)2021 (accounting contribution)-29.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05)2022 (accounting contribution -- positive, i.e. raised the target-basis total that year)8.8 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05)2023 (accounting contribution)-39.0 Mt CO2einstitutional estimate——
EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05)2024 (accounting contribution, With Additional Measures modelled path -- 2024 has not yet been observed on this basis)-6.8 Mt CO2escenario——
EPR2025 / Current Projections (files updated 2026-06-05)2030 (accounting contribution, With Additional Measures scenario)-25.0 Mt CO2escenario——
EPR2025 report Table 3 (files updated 2026-06-05)2030 With Additional Measures, as presented in the 2023 progress report (EPR2023 vintage -- superseded by the current EPR2025 figure)467.0 Mt CO2escenario——

Movement between vintages

This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability.

ComparisonCompared vintagesMovementBasis
2030 With Additional Measures scenario: EPR2023 vintage vs EPR2025 vintageEPR2025 report Table 3 (files updated 2026-06-05) (scenario 467.0 Mt CO2e) vs. CESI 2026 indicator / EPR2025 With Additional Measures scenario (scenario 546.0 Mt CO2e)+79.0 Mt CO2esame issuer
Evidence qualifications (4)
Latest source: Canada's greenhouse gas emissions on the target-accounting basis: the 2005 base, the latest observed year, the government's own With Measures and With Additional Measures 2030/2035 projections, and the LULUCF accounting contribution that bridges the two · accessed 2026-07-21

Related on this site

This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability.

This is the current public record for this lineage. See Work with Countability for a commissioned projection-resolution question.

Work with Countability