Resolution
Bank of CanadafiscalAwaiting settlementCurrent
The Bank of Canada's real GDP growth projection, across five Monetary Policy Report vintages, held against Statistics Canada's own outturn where one exists
Canada's real GDP growth (year-over-year percentage change), as the Bank of Canada's staff economic projection stated it in five successive Monetary Policy Reports (July 2025, October 2025, January 2026, April 2026, July 2026), for quarters that have since been observed by Statistics Canada and for quarters that have not.
A Resolution record follows one institution's figures for a defined quantity. It may contain projections, estimates or measured observations. Each version held here keeps its publication date and source, so a newer figure does not erase the earlier one. What is a Resolution record? →
Awaiting settlement. This record contains forward-looking positions. No audited or final outcome has yet settled the projections; any interim estimate is identified below. Conditional scenarios describe pathways under stated assumptions and are not predictions.
The lineage
| Vintage | Issuer | Published | Position | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPR_2025M07 | Bank of Canada | 2025-07-30 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-09 |
| MPR_2025M10 | Bank of Canada | 2025-10-29 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-09 |
| MPR_2026M01 | Bank of Canada | 2026-01-28 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-09 |
| MPR_2026M04 | Bank of Canada | 2026-04-29 | superseded | Source → · accessed 2026-07-09 |
| MPR_2026M07 | Bank of Canada | 2026-07-15 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-08-05 |
| release of 2026-05-29 | Statistics Canada | 2026-05-29 | current | Source → · accessed 2026-07-09 |
| Vintage | Period | Value | Role | Assurance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPR_2025M07 | Real GDP, year-over-year % change, as projected in the July 2025 Monetary Policy Report | multi-period path (see comparisons below) | projection | — | — |
| MPR_2025M10 | Real GDP, year-over-year % change, as projected in the October 2025 Monetary Policy Report | multi-period path (see comparisons below) | projection | — | — |
| MPR_2026M01 | Real GDP, year-over-year % change, as projected in the January 2026 Monetary Policy Report | multi-period path (see comparisons below) | projection | — | — |
| MPR_2026M04 | Real GDP, year-over-year % change, as projected in the April 2026 Monetary Policy Report | multi-period path (see comparisons below) | projection | — | — |
| MPR_2026M07 | Real GDP, year-over-year % change, as projected in the July 2026 Monetary Policy Report | multi-period path (see comparisons below) | projection | — | — |
| release of 2026-05-29 | 2025 Q3, year-over-year | 1.7 percent | revised observation | — | — |
| release of 2026-05-29 | 2025 Q4, year-over-year | 0.7 percent | revised observation | — | — |
| release of 2026-05-29 | 2026 Q1, year-over-year | 0.1 percent | revised observation | — | — |
Movement between vintages
This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability.
| Comparison | Compared vintages | Movement | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q3: July 2025 MPR projection vs. StatsCan outturn | MPR_2025M07 (projection —) vs. release of 2026-05-29 (revised observation 1.7 percent) | -0.8 percent | cross-issuer |
| 2025 Q3: October 2025 MPR projection vs. StatsCan outturn | MPR_2025M10 (projection —) vs. release of 2026-05-29 (revised observation 1.7 percent) | -1.0 percent | cross-issuer |
| 2025 Q3: January 2026 MPR projection vs. StatsCan outturn | MPR_2026M01 (projection —) vs. release of 2026-05-29 (revised observation 1.7 percent) | -0.3 percent | cross-issuer |
| 2025 Q3: April 2026 MPR projection vs. StatsCan outturn | MPR_2026M04 (projection —) vs. release of 2026-05-29 (revised observation 1.7 percent) | -0.1 percent | cross-issuer |
| 2025 Q4: July 2025 MPR projection vs. StatsCan outturn | MPR_2025M07 (projection —) vs. release of 2026-05-29 (revised observation 0.7 percent) | +0.0 percent | cross-issuer |
| 2025 Q4: October 2025 MPR projection vs. StatsCan outturn | MPR_2025M10 (projection —) vs. release of 2026-05-29 (revised observation 0.7 percent) | -0.2 percent | cross-issuer |
| 2025 Q4: January 2026 MPR projection vs. StatsCan outturn | MPR_2026M01 (projection —) vs. release of 2026-05-29 (revised observation 0.7 percent) | +0.0 percent | cross-issuer |
| 2025 Q4: April 2026 MPR projection vs. StatsCan outturn | MPR_2026M04 (projection —) vs. release of 2026-05-29 (revised observation 0.7 percent) | +0.0 percent | cross-issuer |
| 2026 Q1: January 2026 MPR projection vs. StatsCan outturn | MPR_2026M01 (projection —) vs. release of 2026-05-29 (revised observation 0.1 percent) | +0.5 percent | cross-issuer |
| 2026 Q1: April 2026 MPR projection vs. StatsCan outturn | MPR_2026M04 (projection —) vs. release of 2026-05-29 (revised observation 0.1 percent) | +0.5 percent | cross-issuer |
| 2025 Q4: July 2026 MPR projection vs. StatsCan outturn | MPR_2026M07 (projection —) vs. release of 2026-05-29 (revised observation 0.7 percent) | +0.0 percent | cross-issuer |
| 2026 Q1: July 2026 MPR projection vs. StatsCan outturn | MPR_2026M07 (projection —) vs. release of 2026-05-29 (revised observation 0.1 percent) | -0.2 percent | cross-issuer |
| 2026 Q4: July 2025 MPR projection vs. April 2026 MPR projection | MPR_2025M07 (projection —) vs. MPR_2026M04 (projection —) | +0.4 percent | same issuer |
| 2027 Q4: July 2025 MPR projection vs. April 2026 MPR projection | MPR_2025M07 (projection —) vs. MPR_2026M04 (projection —) | -0.7 percent | same issuer |
Evidence qualifications (8)
- This entry restates two issuers' own published figures side by side: the Bank of Canada's staff economic projection and Statistics Canada's national-accounts estimate. Countability adjudicates neither. Where the two differ, the difference is shown as a signed number in percentage points; no direction is described as a better or worse forecast.
- Real GDP growth is a single target concept measured two different ways here -- a model projection and a measured national-accounts aggregate -- and the two are not produced by identical methods. This entry treats the two as comparable because both name the same target quantity for the same period, not because the two issuers compute it identically; each comparison below records its own basis.
- Statistics Canada's own year-over-year figures used to resolve the Bank's projections (the quarterly outturn values on this entry) are the currently published (2026-05-29 release) estimates, not a real-time vintage history. This platform has not identified a real-time table for expenditure-based GDP (36-10-0104) the way it has for basic-price GDP by industry (36-10-0491, the table behind the companion GDP first-estimate revisions lineage in this register); the values used here may themselves still revise in a later Statistics Canada release, and this entry does not yet distinguish 'the Bank's projection differed from an outturn that has since moved' from 'the Bank's projection differed from a settled figure.'
- Periods 2026-04-01 (Q2 2026) onward have no Statistics Canada outturn as of this entry's registration date. For those periods the comparisons below set Bank of Canada projections against the Bank's own earlier vintages -- shown as same-issuer comparisons -- never a projection against an outcome that does not yet exist. When Statistics Canada publishes an outturn for a later period, a future capture appends new publications, values, and comparisons; nothing here is edited in place.
- This example was not chosen for a dramatic miss. Nine of the twelve resolution entries below record a difference of under one percentage point; the two largest (both approximately +0.65 percentage points, for 2026 Q1) are shown alongside the closer ones rather than selected for or against.
- Not filed under any existing Open Question or Framework: none of the platform's six live Questions concerns forecast accuracy specifically, so none is claimed here rather than force a false membership. This entry is filed under the registered forecast-record question directly -- that question is titled exactly 'How often do official forecasts come true?'.
- This entry is filed under the fiscal domain, the closest existing one; it concerns Canada's aggregate real GDP growth, not a fiscal-anchor compliance measure specifically, and no Domain #6 is created to hold it more precisely.
- The Bank of Canada also publishes a corresponding CPI inflation projection (SQP_CAN_CPI_YOY) in every MPR vintage used here, and a core-inflation projection. Neither is curated in this entry -- a later reading may add a companion resolution entry for inflation without touching this one.
Latest source: The Bank of Canada's real GDP growth projection, across five Monetary Policy Report vintages, held against Statistics Canada's own outturn where one exists · accessed 2026-08-05
Related on this site
- Big Question: How often do official forecasts come true? →
- Domain: Federal Fiscal Capacity →
- More Resolution lineages →
- Sources & Method →
This record shows what an institution published and how its figures compare across versions or with later outcomes. It does not rank institutions or grade their forecasting ability.
This is the current public record for this lineage. See Work with Countability for a commissioned projection-resolution question.
Work with Countability