Receipt — US Exposure Monitor

A Receipt is a dated evidence summary for one product. It shows the question, the current answer, the sources, the method, the limits, and the next update.

Open the product this Receipt documents → · Portable JSON · Correction policy

The question	How exposed is Canada's trade to the United States — and is that exposure changing?
Current reading	This is the Monitor's first maintained reading. Every monthly row now carries the July reference month that Statistics Canada published at the start of September, checked against the first reading rather than restated; the daily truck row is the one exception, because the issuer has not updated its own table since the first reading. The share of Canada's goods exports going to the United States fell to the lowest level this record holds, and the month's fall ended a run of consecutive monthly rises in the United States-bound level. Every observation on this page still ends before the date the United States duties became legally effective, and before the date Canada's counter-tariffs become legally effective, so no effect of either can be observed here and none is claimed. No institution publishes a continuous measure of what those actions actually cover.
Evidence reviewed through	2026-09-04
Basis	A curated composition over eight already-fetched Statistics Canada trade tables -- headline United States export share, sectoral composition, trade-agreement (CUSMA) qualification, origin-versus-export routing, price and volume decomposition, daily truck crossings, services trade, and province-by-United-States-state export concentration -- each row restating its own named series with its own reporting date, plus one evidence gap this Monitor states directly.
Method	A curated composition over already-public members; every state row is checked before publication, and nothing is computed that the record does not already hold.
Confidence	Every figure is a directly observed Statistics Canada series or a single disclosed ratio over two such series; as of this reading, eight of nine sections carry directly observed evidence, none carries correlated or inferred evidence, and one -- the tariff-coverage gap -- is unresolved. The counts are printed on the Monitor and re-checked automatically.
Next trigger	The next monthly international-trade release covering the July reference month, or an amendment to the pinned tariff-actions Resolution, whichever is published first.
Next evidence	Statistics Canada's international merchandise trade release, expected in early September on the issuer's observed monthly cadence; the daily truck-crossing series updates continuously — see the release table on Now.
Expiry	Standing product; a new dated Receipt reading follows whenever this Monitor's reading status changes from its current first reading.

Material definitions

Every value on this Monitor restates a raw Statistics Canada series, or a single named-formula ratio computed once and printed alongside its formula (for example us_share_pct: exports to the United States divided by exports to all countries) -- nothing is ranked, surfaced as a candidate, or treated as a record or a break.
The province-by-state export concentration reading (each province's largest United States-state destination and that state's share of the province's United States-bound exports) uses Statistics Canada's 'Domestic exports' figures, the only Trade measure this table publishes at the provincial level -- a narrower quantity than the Canada-level headline share, which is never merged with it.
Services trade (Canada's total trade in services with the world, no United States-specific partner breakdown) is held as acquired, registered evidence and presented as a coverage gap rather than a state-matrix reading, until United States-partner services data is captured.
This is a first reading: every row's own latest observation predates the United States tariff actions this record separately states, except the daily truck-crossing row, whose latest observation falls after the proclamations were signed but before the duties became legally effective.

Decisive limitations

No official source publishes a continuous, machine-readable measure of tariff coverage or effective rates on Canadian exports; this Monitor states that absence directly, as an unresolved evidence gap, rather than estimating a coverage share.
The sectoral composition row covers four fetched industry sectors, roughly ninety-nine percent of exports to the United States; the remaining sectors, including an ambiguously named one, are not enumerated.
The price-and-volume row fetches only the fixed-weighted indexes; an alternative weighting and a quarterly sibling table are registered but not fetched.
The daily truck-crossing row is a Canada-level aggregate; its first monthly bucket is a four-day partial month and is not a trend point.
The province-by-state row's full breakdown by product type together with province and state is not yet fetched; only the all-product-types province-by-state totals are read for the concentration reading.

Key sources and licences

Merchandise imports and exports, customs-based, by Harmonized commodity description and coding system (HS) section, Canada, provinces and territories — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
International trade in services, monthly — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
International merchandise trade, by commodity, price and volume indexes, monthly — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
Merchandise imports and exports, customs-based, by free trade agreement and by commodity — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
Canadian international merchandise trade by industry for all countries, monthly — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
Canadian international merchandise trade for imports by country of origin and country of export — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
Canadian international merchandise trade for total exports, domestic exports and re-exports, by country of destination and country of origin, customs-based, monthly — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
Leading indicator, Trucks and drivers entering or returning to Canada, by vehicle licence plate — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full

Every figure this Receipt covers can be reproduced from the named public sources under Countability's published method. If a correction is ever needed, it produces a new dated version rather than editing this one.