Claim in the Record
OBSERVEDAdded to the Record 2026-07-13Public in the Record

Wage growth: level shift

The claim

Average hourly wage, % y/y (unadjusted): level shift detected around Nov 2024

A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 months places the largest level shift in average hourly wage, % y/y (unadjusted) around Nov 2024: mean 4.99 before vs 3.57 after (shift = 3.6× pooled variability). The detector locates the shift; it does not attribute a cause.

Method

Deterministic two-segment mean-shift scan; break where |Δmean|/pooled sd ≥ 1.5 with ≥8 periods per segment.

Key sources and licences

Added to the Record2026-07-13
How it is usedPublic in the Record
Where it appearsComposed into the Entry-Level Work evidence inside the Canadian Capacity Monitor's workforce-capacity section — its approved destination named in the decision record.
What would change itLFS wage-series revisions removing the shift, or wage growth returning to its prior band.
CorrectionsNone on record for this claim — policy →
Technical details
Record IDR17-break:wage_yoy
Detection ruleR17-break
Indicatorwage_yoy

Every figure this Receipt covers can be reproduced from the named public sources under Countability's published method. If a correction is ever needed, it produces a new dated version rather than editing this one.