Old-age dependency: selected-period comparison
The claim
Old-age dependency ratio (65+ per 100 aged 15-64), July 1: different averages either side of 2014
A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 years selects a split in Old-age dependency ratio (65+ per 100 aged 15-64), July 1 at 2014: mean 18.35 before vs 26.58 after (difference = 4.4× pooled variability). The selected date divides two sets of observations; it does not establish when a change began. This descriptive comparison is not a significance test and does not attribute a cause. Window choice and seasonal patterns can affect it.
Method
Descriptive two-segment mean comparison; selects the largest |difference in means| / pooled standard deviation, reported at ratios of at least 1.5 with at least eight observations per segment. No change-date or statistical-significance inference.
Key sources and licences
- Population estimates on July 1, by age and gender, annual — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
| Added to the Record | 2026-07-13 |
|---|---|
| How it is used | Withdrawn — historical record |
| Where it appears | Historical reading retained on this receipt. It is withdrawn from the current Living Standards Brief and current admitted corpus. |
| What would change it | A new comparison requires independent review, explicit acceptance and a new admission; the previously admitted comparison cannot transfer its authority to a different candidate. |
| Corrections | 2026-09-14: selected-period comparisons do not establish change dates or statistical significance; calculations are unchanged. |
| Withdrawn | 2026-09-29 |
| Withdrawal reason | The September 23 annual demographic release advanced and revised the age series. The fixed comparison no longer reproduces the admitted 2014 candidate. That admission is withdrawn; a newly selected comparison remains deferred and is not published here. |
Technical details
| Record ID | R17-break:old_age_dependency |
|---|---|
| Historical candidate ID | cand:R17-break:old_age_dependency:2014-01-01 |
| Detection rule | R17-break |
| Indicator | old_age_dependency |
This Receipt names the public sources and method needed to reproduce the figures it covers. Corrections are dated and explained, with the earlier published record retained.