Claim in the Record
OBSERVEDAdded to the Record 2026-07-13Featured in a product

New-home price inflation: level shift

The claim

New housing price index, % y/y: level shift detected around Jul 2025

A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 months places the largest level shift in new housing price index, % y/y around Jul 2025: mean -0.38 before vs -2.04 after (shift = 4.1× pooled variability). The detector locates the shift; it does not attribute a cause.

Method

Deterministic two-segment mean-shift scan; break where |Δmean|/pooled sd ≥ 1.5 with ≥8 periods per segment.

Key sources and licences

Added to the Record2026-07-13
How it is usedFeatured in a product
Where it appearsFeatured in the housing domain story — the housing-cost regime changed.
What would change itAn NHPI revision or re-based series that removes the detected shift, or reversion of year-over-year changes to the prior band.
CorrectionsNone on record for this claim — policy →
Technical details
Record IDR17-break:nhpi_yoy
Detection ruleR17-break
Indicatornhpi_yoy

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