Claim in the Record
OBSERVEDAdded to the Record 2026-07-13Featured in a product
New-home price inflation: level shift
The claim
New housing price index, % y/y: level shift detected around Jul 2025
A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 months places the largest level shift in new housing price index, % y/y around Jul 2025: mean -0.38 before vs -2.04 after (shift = 4.1× pooled variability). The detector locates the shift; it does not attribute a cause.
Method
Deterministic two-segment mean-shift scan; break where |Δmean|/pooled sd ≥ 1.5 with ≥8 periods per segment.
Key sources and licences
- New housing price index, monthly — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
| Added to the Record | 2026-07-13 |
|---|---|
| How it is used | Featured in a product |
| Where it appears | Featured in the housing domain story — the housing-cost regime changed. |
| What would change it | An NHPI revision or re-based series that removes the detected shift, or reversion of year-over-year changes to the prior band. |
| Corrections | None on record for this claim — policy → |
Technical details
| Record ID | R17-break:nhpi_yoy |
|---|---|
| Detection rule | R17-break |
| Indicator | nhpi_yoy |
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