Federal interest burden: selected-period comparison
The claim
Federal interest on debt, % of revenue (National Accounts basis): different averages either side of 2023 Q3
A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 quarters selects a split in Federal interest on debt, % of revenue (National Accounts basis) at 2023 Q3: mean 6.85 before vs 10.05 after (difference = 4.8× pooled variability). The selected date divides two sets of observations; it does not establish when a change began. This descriptive comparison is not a significance test and does not attribute a cause. Window choice and seasonal patterns can affect it.
Method
Descriptive two-segment mean comparison; selects the largest |difference in means| / pooled standard deviation, reported at ratios of at least 1.5 with at least eight observations per segment. No change-date or statistical-significance inference.
Key sources and licences
- Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance, general governments, quarterly (National Accounts basis) — Statistics Canada Licence text read in full
| Added to the Record | 2026-07-13 |
|---|---|
| How it is used | Featured in a product |
| Where it appears | Featured in the fiscal domain story — federal fiscal room is under sustained pressure — and in the Canadian Capacity Monitor's fiscal room row. |
| What would change it | A National Accounts revision to the interest or revenue series that removes the detected shift, or subsequent quarters returning the ratio to its pre-2023 band. |
| Corrections | 2026-09-14: selected-period comparisons do not establish change dates or statistical significance; calculations are unchanged. |
Technical details
| Record ID | R17-break:fiscal_interest_pct_revenue_q |
|---|---|
| Detection rule | R17-break |
| Indicator | fiscal_interest_pct_revenue_q |
This Receipt names the public sources and method needed to reproduce the figures it covers. Corrections are dated and explained, with the earlier published record retained.