Asylum claims: selected-period comparison
This claim has been checked and added to the Record, and is not yet featured in a product. It appears here so the full Record stays inspectable.
The claim
Asylum claims, monthly: different averages either side of Nov 2025
A two-segment mean-shift scan over the last 40 months selects a split in Asylum claims, monthly at Nov 2025: mean 12,505 before vs 5,308 after (difference = 3.0× pooled variability). The selected date divides two sets of observations; it does not establish when a change began. This descriptive comparison is not a significance test and does not attribute a cause. Window choice and seasonal patterns can affect it.
Method
Descriptive two-segment mean comparison; selects the largest |difference in means| / pooled standard deviation, reported at ratios of at least 1.5 with at least eight observations per segment. No change-date or statistical-significance inference.
Key sources and licences
- Asylum Claimants – Monthly IRCC Updates (rounded to nearest 5) — IRCC (Open Government) Licence text read in full
| Added to the Record | 2026-09-14 |
|---|---|
| How it is used | In the Record, not featured |
| Where it appears | The September 2026 correction replaces the earlier change-date interpretation with a descriptive comparison of selected-period averages. The scan reaches its permitted boundary and cannot establish when a change began. Earlier admissions remain preserved; see Corrections. Originally admitted to the canonical claim corpus 2026-08-11. Admission is not publication; placement remains a separate editorial decision. |
| What would change it | New or revised monthly observations can change the selected window, means or boundary. The comparison does not identify a change date or a cause. |
| Corrections | 2026-09-14: selected-period comparisons do not establish change dates or statistical significance; calculations are unchanged. |
Technical details
| Record ID | R17-break:asylum_flow |
|---|---|
| Detection rule | R17-break |
| Indicator | asylum_flow |
This Receipt names the public sources and method needed to reproduce the figures it covers. Corrections are dated and explained, with the earlier published record retained.