Can Canada keep its pension promises?
Retirement promises must be financed across generations. Their durability depends on contributions, investment income, taxation and the assumptions used to project each programme.
The financing of CPP, QPP and OAS matters to contributors, pensioners and taxpayers. Whether a programme can pay its promised benefits is a separate question from whether those benefits and other resources provide an adequate retirement income.
Funding a promise, and living on it
The actuarial reports support continued funding under their assumptions. They do not establish that every household will have enough retirement income. Canada’s pension question has both a financing side and a living-standards side.
Evidence reviewed October 5, 2026. CPP and QPP valuations are as at December 31, 2024. The OAS projection below comes from an older valuation, as at December 31, 2021.
CPP: a partially funded base, with a narrower margin under the proposed change
The revised CPP report puts the base minimum contribution rate at 9.21% for 2028–2033, below the report’s statutory 9.9%. Additional CPP minimum rates from 2028 of 2.01% and 8.04% are slightly above their statutory counterparts; the actuary says they remain within permitted deviations.
| Component | Minimum rate | Statutory rate in report |
|---|---|---|
| Base CPP, 2028–2033 | 9.21% | 9.90% |
| Additional CPP, first earnings band, 2028 onward | 2.01% | 2.00% |
| Additional CPP, upper earnings band, 2028 onward | 8.04% | 8.00% |
The June supplement models a base rate of 9.5% from 2027. Its minimum becomes 9.22% for 2028–2033 and 9.20% thereafter. This is the report’s conditional Bill C-30 scenario, not a finding here that the change became law. Long-term results depend on earnings, longevity and investment returns. Source: revised CPP report and June supplement.
QPP: a separate plan and a separate test
The May amending report examines a base contribution rate reduced from 10.8% to 10.6%. Its steady-state funding rate rises from 10.47% to 10.48%; the additional plan’s reference rate stays at 1.60%. Retraite Québec reports sufficient cash inflows over its 50-year projection under the assumptions used. This is a limited amendment to the 2024 valuation, not a complete revaluation or independent verification of enactment. CPP and QPP rates cannot be ranked as returns to contributors. Source: Retraite Québec.
OAS: the pressure falls on general revenues
OAS is financed from taxation. The held 2023 report projects total programme spending, including GIS, allowances and administration, relative to GDP. It is a forecast made under the 2021 valuation, not observed spending in the years shown.
| Projection year | Share of GDP |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 2.68% |
| 2026 | 2.83% |
| 2030 | 2.98% |
| 2032 | 3.01% |
| 2035 | 3.00% |
| 2060 | 2.64% |
Gross spending before the OAS recovery tax; includes payments abroad. No newer OAS valuation has been qualified for this page. Source: Office of the Chief Actuary, Table 11.
The unanswered part is adequacy: how pension entitlements, private savings, housing costs and household circumstances combine after retirement. The funding tests above cannot settle it. The ageing Question follows population change; the household accounts show how saving differs by age and tenure.
Institutional projections on file
Actuarial Report (32nd) on the Canada Pension Plan (Revised version), as at 31 December 2024
The Chief Actuary's statutory triennial valuation of the Canada Pension Plan (section 115 of the Canada Pension Plan, which provides that an actuarial report shall be prepared every three years): 75-year financial projections of the base and additional CPP as at 31 December 2024, including the minimum contribution rates needed to sustain each part of the Plan — the legislated benchmark for the federal-provincial financial state review of the CPP
Measure: assets to expenditures ratio.
Where institutions disagree
What would change the record
- Aging and fiscal sustainability — reviewed by 2027-07-09.
This page brings together the evidence, institutional disagreements and gaps behind a continuing question. Where the record supports an answer, it appears with its date, sources, limits, Brief and Receipt. New evidence can change that answer.
This page holds the current public record for this question. For a more specific question, see Work with Countability.
Work with Countability